Foreign Affairs Committee on April 4th, 2012

[Patricia Malikail]

Thanks for the question. It's an interesting question.

I think I'd start by saying that the people who were most taken aback and surprised by this coup were the people of Mali. Twenty years of democracy, a president who's stepping down because of elections that are going to happen within the month—

[Dominic LeBlanc, Liberal, Beauséjour, NB]

He no longer needs to do that, though.

[Patricia Malikail]

He no longer needs to do that.

So it wasn't just the international community that was taken by surprise, it was Mali itself. They never thought this could happen to them.

So far it's been almost three weeks. I don't think we should jump to too-early conclusions that everything that's happened in the last few decades in Mali has not been a success. I think the fact that ECOWAS countries stepped up immediately, if you look at the language of the statement of the leaders, is also a sign of success. The leaders of the countries of west Africa are standing up and saying this is not how we think democracy should operate in our region of Africa.

I think that is a very strong signal. It's quite different from even a year ago, in the situation of Côte d'Ivoire, where it was the UN who took the lead. This time it's ECOWAS saying we're not going to stand for this and we're giving you 72 hours to step down. When their conditions weren't met, they imposed sanctions right away.

So I think we have to let this thing play out. Everybody wants a return to constitutional order quickly. As coups go, there's not been a lot of violence in terms of violence by the coup leaders, so that's also welcome. Unfortunately, of course, it has very, very severe implications for the north of the country.

[George Saibel]

Just to add to that, as regrettable as all of this is, and of course it represents reversals in certain areas, I think a lot of this investment has to be seen in the context of a country that started from an incredibly low base, first of all, as one of the very poorest countries on earth.

Secondly are some of the achievements and developments. Regardless of the political shifts, the children will not be unvaccinated. The primary uplift that has been achieved in the country to date will not be removed. The capacity inside the various technical ministries is there and permanent for the country, and is still a significant factor that is available to the country to be mobilized for future uses.

We all regret what's happened. Obviously it's a reversal. But I don't think it's the same as saying that all is lost, that the investment was for naught.

[Dominic LeBlanc, Liberal, Beauséjour, NB]

That's a very valid point, and you're right: certainly the health and education aspect of the investment, thank God, will carry benefits hopefully for a long time.

But on that very point, just as a technical question, with regard to the $45 million or so that was suspended or stopped—and appropriately so—does CIDA hold that in reserve, or does it get allocated to other...?

If, as your colleague said, it's hopefully a short-term problem that's evolving quickly to a resolution, your plan, once these institutions return to a normal democratic constitutional circumstance, would surely be to continue that money and not deprive the Malian people of that investment. It's not being allocated somewhere else, is it?

[George Saibel]

We still have on the books the operational projects. They are in suspension, not cancelled. Conditions permitting—and political will and so forth, if conditions are favourable—we would pick up the baton again and continue to implement those projects.

In the meantime, some of those activities will continue, such as on the humanitarian front or through channels that aren't directly involving the Government of Mali.

[Dominic LeBlanc, Liberal, Beauséjour, NB]

Thank you.

Thank you, Mr. Chair.

[The Chair, Conservative, Dean Allison]

Thank you very much.

We're going to start our second round. We'll go to Mr. Williamson. You have five minutes, sir.

[John Williamson, Conservative, New Brunswick Southwest, NB]

Thank you, Chair.

Thank you to our witnesses.

I have just a couple of questions on facts that I'd like to address before we get into some meatier ones.

Roughly how many Canadians are in the country? Do you have any idea?

[Patricia Malikail]

There were over 300. We always run into the issue of who is registered and how many we have.

[John Williamson, Conservative, New Brunswick Southwest, NB]

Right.

[Patricia Malikail]

Usually as a rule of thumb we think it's about double the number who are registered. We had over 350 at one point, and 207 have already gone now. Our figures are that 250 Canadians are left in the country; and we have nobody, by the way, in the northern parts of Mali—

[John Williamson, Conservative, New Brunswick Southwest, NB]

Okay—

[Patricia Malikail]

—who is registered.

[John Williamson, Conservative, New Brunswick Southwest, NB]

Sure. Okay.

I'd like just the quick view, just a snapshot, of the interests between either Mali and Canada or Mali and Europe. For example, just north, in Morocco, I know that there are great ties of trade, commerce, and tourism. Is there anything like that at all?

[Patricia Malikail]

Yes. We had 22 Canadian companies operating in Mali—mainly mining companies. Gold mining was big in Mali. That's where they were operating. A couple of them were quite large, but we also had smaller and medium-sized companies.

[John Williamson, Conservative, New Brunswick Southwest, NB]

All right.

Is it the belief that the focus should be put on or that the lead should be given to...or not given to, but that ECOWAS should continue to be the lead organization in terms of this...? I ask that because it seems.... I'll tell you where I'm going with it and you can either validate it or suggest that it's flawed.

It seems that when you do have the regional institutions taking the lead, those tend to be the ones that are most successful. I'm thinking, for example, of Australia and East Timor many years ago. This seems to be a good sign, but what is your thinking on that question?

[Patricia Malikail]

I think the international community and some of our like-minded allies, such as the French and the U.S., for example, are very pleased to have seen ECOWAS act so quickly.

Even the African Union, which deals with the whole continent, I think is pleased to give ECOWAS the lead. They feel that those leaders are of the territory and they know the region best. In fact, now the new president of ECOWAS at the political level is President Ouattara of Côte d'Ivoire, who himself about a year ago was waiting to get into power after he was elected democratically and couldn't get back in.

[John Williamson, Conservative, New Brunswick Southwest, NB]

Thank you.

So what is the thinking telling us on this? Where are we going? It looks like the first response has been quite unified and the message has been sent at least when it comes to credit, relations, and aid. But what's so bizarre here is that, as I understand it—correct me if I'm wrong—this coup happened in part because the military wasn't doing so well in a skirmish or a civil war that was happening, and now it's doing even worse and has lost additional territory.

Where are we going here? Is this looking like a protracted armed conflict? What is this coming down to? Someone mentioned the negotiations that are going to happen to try to determine a return to normal rule. Is that in the cards, or are we going to continue to see a military conflict here?

[Patricia Malikail]

I think it's still possible to return to constitutional rule quickly. What ECOWAS negotiators are banking on is that since the original motivation for the coup was, in a sense, patriotism and nationalism, they're appealing to that and to the leaders in saying, “Look, do not let your country lose its territorial integrity by your actions. We understand that you were motivated by good intentions. Make sure that you're not counterproductive in your actions.” They're being pretty tough with that message.

[John Williamson, Conservative, New Brunswick Southwest, NB]

Have there been calls from outside forces or even from...? Could this escalate into armed conflict that's going to involve actors outside of the country?

[Patricia Malikail]

In a sense it already has escalated to actors outside the country, because we know that there are several movements involved in the occupation of the north. The first were the Tuareg fighters themselves. We also have Ansar Dine, which is a Salafist jihadist movement. We have also a breakaway movement of that called Mujao; I won't go into the details. We know that there has been support of these two by al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb.

We already have heard, for example, that in the town of Timbuktu the Tuareg fighters are being kicked out by these other Islamic groups, so that is actually the most worrying sign in this whole episode: it's the grip that these other outside groups will have.

It's a complicated situation, because other countries' inclination, I should say, to intervene also depends on what the implications are for the Tuareg. Because originally it was hoped that you could actually come to a political settlement with the Tuareg, which is something that countries in the region—like Burkina Faso, like Niger—also want, because they don't want the Tuareg to be problems in their own countries.

[The Chair, Conservative, Dean Allison]

Thank you very much.

Thanks, John.

Madame Laverdière, we'll start with you and work our way down. You have five minutes.

[Hélène Laverdière, NDP, Laurier—Sainte-Marie, QC]

Thank you very much, Mr. Chair.

Thank you.

If I can be so bold as to compare my assessment with yours--because after all, you are the experts, but I lived three years in the region and have been to Mali very often--indeed, it doesn't look like a conflict based on religion. It's rather a conflict where various groups, including religious groups, try to take advantage of the situation for their own purposes.

Speaking of groups, what is the situation regarding Tuaregs coming from Libya, who left Libya in the recent months, and are now in the north of Mali?

[Patricia Malikail]

Thank you for that question.

I think it's pretty clear that a lot of Tuaregs had left Libya and were mercenaries there. As well, small arms, MANPADS, and other weapons came out of Libya. It only had the effect of exacerbating the situation.