My answer is that I'm unambiguously expecting cooperation. One hopes for cooperation, the desired end state to accomplish all of the objectives of our northern strategy—and of northern strategies that preceded the latest one going back to the northern dimension of Canada's foreign policy in 2000, even.
This doesn't have to be looked at in a partisan way. To achieve the objectives of everyone, we should be aspiring towards cooperation; that goes without saying. It doesn't mean that we can pretend there isn't the potential for a flare-up of some sort of defence issue—more likely it's going to be a security or safety issue in the region that requires an immediate Canadian response—for that would be naive. But to treat the Arctic as though the threats we face there are more acute than in other parts of the country is part of the problem of this alarmist mindset.
In that sense, I think the region is already rich in cooperation. What has happened is that cooperation has broken out all over the place since 1990. Since the end of the Cold War, there really has been an opportunity to have a lot of agreements reached on a bilateral basis—things that are often overlooked.
With the United States, we have a very deep, longstanding relationship, which goes back to the end of the Second World War, to figure out ways of accommodating different grand legal positions on international law—not about the Arctic per se; they manifest themselves as or are about global positions of the U.S. Navy and the right to freedom of navigation, or force projection.
The reality is that on a functional level, Canada and the United States are incredible partners and cooperate regularly in the Arctic. There isn't a lot of true friction in that particular relationship when it comes to some of these core issues.
At the end of the day, I think cooperation is the norm. Maybe this ties back to the question about what is new about the Arctic. No, it's not a new ocean by any stretch of the imagination. It's water; it's an ocean. Whether it's in a frozen state or in a liquid state doesn't change the fact that it's an ocean. Yes, there's more and more interest in it, not in terms of legal status—no way. The only change relates to Article 234 of the UN Convention of the Law of the Sea.
No, it's an ocean; it has always been called the Arctic Ocean and the Arctic Sea. The rapid change, I think, is the issue. Does rapid change portend uncertainty and therefore set up the groundwork for conflict?
Conflict in some scenarios may be possible. My suggestion is that it's highly improbable. International interest in a region doesn't mean that we should inherently feel threatened. We can look at it as an opportunity to educate countries such as Singapore about where they can make appropriate targeted investments in conformity with Canadian goals and regulations to achieve circumpolar effects.
To me, it's all about mindset. If one wants to see this as a threatening place where everything is changing overnight—forget about history; we need to react immediately because, by God, if we don't act now, things are going to change 16 years from now.
What I'm trying to say is, and my general message is, take pause. We have some time to lay the proper foundation, and a solid foundation is key to building the right sort of house on top of it.