I cannot give you a precise number because that is a very complex calculation, and we are monitoring that quarter by quarter, in a sense. As I said, we are trying to provide long-term support to these countries. In some cases, we commit for several years in advance, and that's where a lot of the money goes.
We have a policy that says we only sign an agreement with a country if we have the money available for two years in advance. But at the moment, because of the situation in a number of donor countries, we are indeed coming under increasing pressure, so for the next year I would foresee a shortfall in the order of a few hundred million dollars, at least.
We are going to have what we call a mid-term replenishment review. We have regular donor conferences. The last big conference was last year in New York, under the leadership of UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, but we will also have a conference next year. There is one slide in my presentation on that. The UN General Assembly has already taken that up and has alluded to there being a new forecast, if you like, of resources coming up next year. Then we will be much more precise in this forecast of what is required so that we can maintain the programs.