Foreign Affairs Committee on Nov. 5th, 2018

[Raj Saini, Liberal, Kitchener Centre, ON]

This question is for Mr. Dunbar. You mentioned something very important when you talked about the economy in South Sudan. Right now, we know that 98% of the economy in South Sudan is based on the oil economy and, of that 98%, 40% is owned by the Chinese national oil company.

What other economy can be formulated there, when 98% of the economy is already oil export and 40% of that is controlled by the Chinese?

When you talk about investment in South Sudan, what investments are you talking about, when China has such a large play in their economy there?

[Kevin Dunbar]

That's an excellent question.

One of the things that needs a lot of focus is agriculture. South Sudan is one of the most fertile countries in the region. There is tremendous potential for agriculture, both in South Sudan to feed South Sudan, but also as trade and an ability to feed other parts of the region. There is a tremendous untapped potential there, and it is being impacted by conflict, insecurity, lack of access to education and lack of ability to stay on your land. If you're getting displaced from your land every six months, then you're not going to actually be able to build that agriculture.

You also have tremendous tourism opportunities. The Nile goes through South Sudan. Some of the largest herds of wildebeest in the world go through South Sudan as well. I managed to see a little bit of it while I was there, so there are tourism opportunities as well, but agriculture's a key.

[Raj Saini, Liberal, Kitchener Centre, ON]

When you talk about agriculture, you're also talking about issues from the impacts of climate change. You talk about tourism and you were discussing the Blue Nile, but that area is not very secure either. I mean, with 40% of the economy controlled by the Chinese and the fact that the area is not safe, what economic investment could we make as a country to help the South Sudanese?

[Kevin Dunbar]

Tourism is a long shot, so I threw that out there, but I really think that agriculture is key. There are parts of the country that are slightly less impacted by climate change. There are areas where you can still grow food. There are some extremely arable areas of the country. I think we need to focus on those areas in Equatoria that can feed the rest of the country.

[Raj Saini, Liberal, Kitchener Centre, ON]

Thank you.

[The Chair]

Thank you very much.

Go ahead, MP Aboultaif.

[Ziad Aboultaif, Conservative, Edmonton Manning, AB]

I will stay on this topic because I know enough about South Sudan. It's a very rich and fertile land. Agriculture can be on some of the best land in the world, where you can work more than two seasons throughout the year and get maybe three harvests, and then you still get the best of the best. In the meantime, the business community and construction and projects are still going in the country. What's happened is that the war is over the regional interests of the neighbours, as well as the outside scope of the regional powers.

On that topic and on that base, I go back to sanctions. Sanctions have worked. The only way is to really continue to provide...because the economy is producing. We have to be realistic about this whole thing. We can't just ignore it and think that everything's falling apart, so there's nothing over there and nobody is producing anything. No, business communities and China are making money, as well as the neighbours and other interest groups that come in. Everybody's doing those deals. Only the average people are suffering, such as the children, girls, women and the most vulnerable.

I go back to the question of sanctions for Mr. Dunbar and Mr. Chambers. Do you believe that more sanctions are very important in order to be able to enforce the way through?

[Kevin Dunbar]

I personally can't speak to the effect of sanctions in the country, positive or not. It's not something that I have done a tremendous amount of analysis on, but I do think anything that pressures and forces better governance is good.

There is money. There's certainly money. It's certainly not being redistributed at all or being invested in the infrastructure that the average person needs, so I think anything that can push and encourage and hold governments to be more inclusive is critical along with dealing with the inflation and issues with the economy. There was 800% inflation in 2016. If you're wealthy, you're going to be okay, but if you're not, you're in real trouble.

[Bill Chambers]

Sanctions are something that you might consider at some point, but a month after a deal is struck seems to me to be the wrong time. It seems to me that you have to try to make the deal work. If it works and you achieve a level of stability, then the question is how you keep it going.

If it doesn't and it returns to old behaviour, then maybe sanctions might be useful, but it would seem to me to be the wrong time for them at the moment.

[Ziad Aboultaif, Conservative, Edmonton Manning, AB]

Sanctions have to continue to be there. I think sanctions have got us the deal that we're dealing with right now, since September 12. I hope it's going to continue to work.

However, if we don't keep doing that, there's nothing you can do other than.... There are two ways, by either sanctions or by force. I don't think force is an option. You have to at least use the tools that you have at hand.

[The Chair]

Thank you very much.

With that, I will thank you all for coming in and giving us some riveting testimony. It was difficult to hear, but important for us to hear nonetheless.

Colleagues, we are going to say goodbye to our guests, and then we're going to go immediately in camera for a couple of minutes.

I will suspend.

[Proceedings continue in camera]