Evidence of meeting #120 for Foreign Affairs and International Development in the 42nd Parliament, 1st Session. (The original version is on Parliament’s site, as are the minutes.) The winning word was somalis.
A recording is available from Parliament.
Professor, Political Science, Davidson College, As an Individual
Getting better and getting worse in Somalia varies by location and sector. When we talk about—
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill, CPC
But I'm asking you overall. I'm saying “on balance”. The international community has contributed billions of dollars since the 1970s. On balance, are we making progress, by whatever criteria you want to use to define overall on-balance progress or betterness?
Professor, Political Science, Davidson College, As an Individual
You're pressing an academic to give a blanket statement. We qualify everything, but—
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill, CPC
Yes, I am, because I'm a politician, and I'll jump to the conclusion. I'm a politician who has heard wise advice and counsel say that we need a major rethink. Therefore, if I'm looking at a major rethink, I have to go to the Canadian taxpayer and say,“This is why your tax dollars are going to Somalia; it's because we are making a difference” or “No, we're not making a difference, and therefore we fundamentally need to do something differently.”
Professor, Political Science, Davidson College, As an Individual
I will try to answer your question as directly as I can.
The overall trend is that there are some pockets of good things happening, but the broad national trend is either stagnant or worrisome. We could be looking at a situation that could get actively worse in the next few years if the right politics aren't pursued.
It's a pessimistic assessment. It's not one that's shared by many of my colleagues in Nairobi, but I am worried.
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill, CPC
But it's pragmatic, and we cannot address a problem if we're not willing to define, evaluate and quantify it.
Jay, could I ask you for your perspective?
Monitoring Group on Somalia and Eritrea, United Nations Security Council
I'll stick with the last five years. That's what I've been looking most intensely at on the ground, to some degree.
To answer, again equally bluntly, I think that politically there have been improvements. I think the overall trend towards creating and supporting federal member states to give some sort of a political arena for grievances on that level is a good thing.
I think you've seen an increasing maturity of the federal government in terms of its ability to, for example, create a budget, act like a government, engage with donors and act a little more maturely on the international stage. There have been institutional improvements and improvements in terms of the quality of individuals in the governments you see around Somalia. Politically, I think there have been steps forward, and certainly in the last five years.
In fact, I think it was in 2009 that the national budget was scribbled on the back of a napkin. Now you have the World Bank and a financial management system implemented by the World Bank. I think those are improvements.
I think the security situation has not improved. The fundamental problem in Somalia is al Shabaab's integration into society and the inability to uproot its mafia—it's been compared by many others to the Mafia—and eliminate it from the fabric of society. That hasn't changed.
In terms of the military situation on the ground, in the last few years it has gotten worse in terms of AMISOM retrenching, cutting budgets, not actively patrolling, not actively engaging in the society and essentially sitting in barracks mode. In that sense, as I said before, I think al Shabaab is winning the stalemate. I think that time is not on the side of those who are trying to stabilize Somalia.
Now, with the Gulf crisis, you see basically a proxy war being fought at a political level that threatens to divide and subsume the progress that has been made between the federal and regional levels.
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill, CPC
I have very little time left, but I'm going to be a little bit inflammatory for the sake of impact or insight.
Why should we continue to invest, and who's doing the major rethink to ensure that those investments are successful?
Mr. Michael Levitt (York Centre, Lib.)
Gentlemen, I'll limit you to 30 seconds each on that, only because we have to move on.
Professor, Political Science, Davidson College, As an Individual
I think we need to continue to engage, because if we were to see Somalia backslide into a real crisis, the spillover to the region would be enormous and the humanitarian impact would be unthinkable.
December 10th, 2018 / 4:30 p.m.
Monitoring Group on Somalia and Eritrea, United Nations Security Council
Again, without knowing specifically what taxpayer commitments Canada has made, essentially I think there's no alternative. I agree with Ken completely that there's no alternative.
Without international support, without AMISOM, without western financial commitments to AMISOM, al Shabaab would be in control of the country in 24 hours. I don't think that's at all a tenable or acceptable solution for anyone, including for the Canadian government.
Mr. Michael Levitt (York Centre, Lib.)
Gentlemen, I want to thank you both for a very insightful and engaging hour of testimony.
This does conclude our hearings on the region. We're certainly going out with a lot of information.
The meeting is adjourned.