Thank you very much, Chair.
I'd like to thank you all for inviting me to participate in your consideration of the effectiveness of sanctions as a tool of Canadian statecraft.
I should begin by stressing, if you haven't already figured out from what is not in my bio, that whatever assistance I might be able to afford you today is limited to a broad consideration of sanctions as a foreign policy tool. Mine is an academic's, not a practitioner's, perspective. It's academic in the sense that I'd like to pitch the focus more broadly, to address some of the general questions posed in the excellent backgrounder by Allison Goody, Brian Hermon, and Robin MacKay.
The perspective is also academic in the sense that it's broadly historical. I've been looking at the use of sanctions in foreign policy since I began my academic career in the mid-1970s. As a young and callow academic, I was particularly interested in understanding the enthusiasm for international sanctions, given the failure of this tool of statecraft under the League of Nations in the interwar period and the long-running sanctions regimes in the post-1945 period—the sanctions against the Soviet Union that began in the late 1940s, against the People's Republic of China in the 1950s, against Castro's Cuba in the 1960s, and the sanctions that were being advocated against the white minority regimes in Rhodesia, South Africa, and Portugal's African colonies in the 1960s and 1970s.
What prompted my interest was the renewed enthusiasm for sanctions against the Soviet Union following its invasion of Afghanistan and against South Africa after the collapse of order in the townships in the mid-1980s. I wondered why there was such enthusiasm, given the string of long-running failures up to that point. Much of my early writing, when I was at McMaster University in Hamilton, sought to address this puzzle.
I raise these historical cases because I think it's important that we remain very conscious of just how enduring the problems with these measures have been. Many years on, it continues to surprise me that we see the same optimism about sanctions that we saw a century ago. To be sure, much water has passed under the bridge since then. The nature of sanctions themselves has changed, and radically so, in the last generation. Instead of the blunt instruments applied in the 20th century to entire communities, instruments that invariably produced a great deal of humanitarian suffering in the target country, we now have so-called smart sanctions or targeted sanctions. Indeed, there can be no better example, in my view, of the move to targeted sanctions than the Magnitsky Act of 2012, a piece of legislation, as members of this committee know well, that was adopted by the United States government to impose sanctions on just 18 of Russia's 143 million people.
What's not changed in all these years is the conviction that imposing economic hardship on some, many, or all the people in a target community will achieve political change. But is there evidence that these measures actually produce political change? Now, it's true that economic sanctions can and do inflict economic hardship on entire communities, on groups, on sectors in the economy, on particular firms, and of course on selected individuals. But do these measures produce the desired political change? Do the economic hurts that are clearly produced by sanctions actually change the behaviour that triggered the sanctions in the first place?
Consider the sanctions regime that Canada presently has in place against 21 different countries, some now for well over a decade. This is a simple question for the committee to consider: have any of these measures actually changed the behaviour of the target government? In my view, the answer, broadly speaking, must be no.
Like the long-running sanctions regimes of the Cold War, which lingered year after year without producing any of the changes that they were supposed to produce, Canada's bundle of sanctions regimes grows older, but no more effective.
Ironically, however, we know that while these measures do produce economic pain, it's not always the pain that is intended. Consider, for example, the hugely gendered impact of the sanctions imposed on Iraq during the 1990s in the aftermath of the Persian Gulf war. The relatively greater negative impact of these sanctions on Iraqi women was one of the reasons why so-called “smart” sanctions came to replace the “dumb” sanctions of the 1980s and 1990s, sanctions dubbed that because they tended not to discriminate between targets.
We also know that sanctions can end up hurting the sender's own people. Talk to Canadian banks or firms in other sectors of the economy that have to deal with current Canadian sanctions practice and have to spend, in the aggregate, millions of dollars because the federal government has downloaded the costs of implementing its enthusiasm for this highly questionable public policy tool onto those firms.
In short, we know that these measures don't produce their intended effects, while at the same time they produce all manner of unintended, and usually negative, collateral damage. That is, of course, why students of sanctions like me continue to ask the question we've always asked: If the economic hardship that is produced by sanctions does not produce the desired change, why do governments continue to use this tool of statecraft and, importantly, continue to pretend that these measures work? The answer to this question is that sanctions, whether the “dumb”, blunt sanctions of the past or the supposedly “smart”, targeted sanctions of the contemporary era, are really not about producing actual political change in the target state.
On the contrary, sanctions are all about producing other political effects. First, sanctions, like all punishments—and we need to remember the etymological origin of the term itself—are useful for symbolic reasons. Like all harms imposed on wrongdoers, sanctions are a useful way of signalling disapproval of particular behaviour. In that sense, international economic sanctions will always “work”, because they punish. They always have, and they always will.
Second, international sanctions are a very useful tool for domestic political purposes. Because sanctions actually produce harm, unlike mere words, these measures give the impression of a stern rebuke to wrongdoers and wrongdoing.
I understand why governments continue to embrace sanctions with the same enthusiasm they always have, and continue to pretend that they will be effective in producing political change. Nonetheless, I remain highly skeptical about this tool of statecraft, and that skepticism is buttressed by the views of a new generation of sanction scholars.
You've already heard from one of this new generation, Andrea Charron. Another one is Dr. Lee Jones, a young academic at Queen Mary University of London, who has explored how sanctions actually play out in target communities. I would highly recommend his 2015 book Societies Under Siege: Exploring How International Economic Sanctions (Do Not) Work. This book demonstrates nicely how inflicting economic pain simply doesn't pay enough attention to what actually happens in societies targeted by sanctions.
Dr. Jones's research led him to write, in a briefing in 2015, the following:
If policymakers cannot specify a plausible, step-by-step mechanism by which the infliction of economic pain will generate political gain, they ought not to impose sanctions at all. Doing so merely imposes random suffering in the vain hope of positive outcomes. This is deeply unethical, and poor public policy.
In my view, there can be no better way to put it.
Thank you very much. I look forward to your questions.