Thank you very much. It is an honour to be here.
I would like start by saying that, first of all, the challenge is to understand where the other country is coming from. I spent more than 30 years working in and with Russia. I am not Russian—I'm Polish by origin—but I will try to present key components of Russia's perspective, and later, during the discussion, maybe we will evaluate them.
Let me present my points, which answer four questions. Each question will take me about one to two minutes.
My first question is: Who does Russia need today?
Russia needs those who will not interfere in her domestic affairs or impose alien values, whatever values she sees as alien. She needs those who will provide markets for Russia. In this sense, North America, including Canada, is not a priority area. The priority area here is the vast territory of Eurasia. She also needs those who contribute to her security. Russia seeks partners in areas such as nuclear non-proliferation, terrorist pandemics, and economic security.
My second question: Who needs Russia? Russia is significantly alienated these days. There is a bit of Russian hysteria around.
My answer is those who want to mitigate any unilateralism and that's the base for Russia's relations with China; those who want to keep an open alternative to the supply of oil, gas, and weapons; those who don't need strategic allies who tie their hands, but are looking for realpolitik support, where power is the key word to understanding Russian policies; those for whom security and stability trump democracy; and those who want more traditional and less diluted sovereignty. So, no matter how hard we try to alienate Russia, Russia will not be isolated. Russia will find her own friends because of those points.
My third question is: What does Russia want from global and regional players, including the European Union and those countries in eastern Europe that belong to or form part of the European Union?
First, Russia would like to have influence in the belt around her. You may define this belt around her in different ways—zone of influence or zone of strategic influence—but the most important thing for Russia is to exercise some influence in the immediate zone around her. Second, Russia would like to keep control over all domestic, natural, and human resources, and she's fiercely opposing an influence in this area. Third, Russia wants to renegotiate relations with the U.S. and with the EU. In this sense, Russia is, you might say, a revisionist state because she would like to revise what she feels is unjust in the behaviour of many countries toward her during the last 20 years. In other words, Russia is trying to be at the table, rather, not on the menu of big powers. Fourth, Russia would like to keep NATO at a healthy distance, and in some cases penetrate NATO-exclusive zones, and have some influence over them. Then, Russia would like to keep the U.S. and EU confrontation at an affordable level. “Affordable level” means without destruction of her vital interests, both economic and political.
In this case, and in the same manner, Russia would like to keep China content, but without the illusion of being a strategic ally to China. Russia would like to assure the Chinese that in the case of a deepening China-U.S. confrontation, Russia will take the Chinese side. There's no doubt about this.
Also, Russia would like to be an alternative to the NATO security umbrella as a potential partner, and the Syrian example comes in here. Russia would also like to participate in and, if possible, reorganize some alternative regional organizations that have a global reach, such as the Eurasian Economic Union, or a Russian effort to adjust the work of the OSCE.
The last question is: What are Russia's options with the EU, Ukraine, and central Asia?
First of all, Russia would like to weaken the coherence of the EU, because Russia prefers bilateral relations, not multilateral relations. It is much more comfortable with face-to-face negotiations rather than multinational forums.
Russia would like to slowly break the barriers imposed by sanctions since 2014. It builds, very patiently, selective relationships and dialogues with those that favour re-engagement over continuing isolation. In Europe, at least two countries come to mind: Hungary, which makes a certain adjustment to the Russian point of view, and Slovakia. I believe there are some hopes that after the election, France will become another, closer, partner to Russia.
On Eurasia and China, for Russia, I believe the future is located in central Asia. In central Asia, Russia prefers to resign from universal values and rather focus on delivering public goods jointly with China—roads, stations, and schools—and create a new patronage network in which Russia plays the significant role as a more significant partner in a Eurasian Economic Union.
To some extent, Chinese initiatives and the new Silk Road, One Belt, One Road, are overlapping with the Eurasian Economic Union. In this sense, it is a form of creating quite a big market for Russian goods jointly with China.
Also, Russia knows her limits, and the limitations related to her own economy and her own political influence over there with some countries that belong to the Eurasian Economic Union definitely trying to be as independent from Russia as possible, and we have seen this even in recent weeks in relations between Belarus and Russia.
For Ukraine, which is my last point, the only option available at the moment is the Minsk agreement, but possibly revised, because it was signed at a time when the political situation was different. To my mind, Russia will be looking for U.S. support to revise this agreement or to force Ukraine to comply with certain aspects of the agreement.
To conclude this brief introduction, I would like to say that Russia is not for beginners. Russia is a complex country, and easy solutions do not work. In the case of Canada, we are not a Russian priority, and Russia is not our priority. However, for many reasons—and I hope that we'll come back to this during the discussion—Russia is important for Canada, not only with regard to the Arctic, but for other reasons.
Our current policy towards Russia is haphazard and zigzag. It's supposed to be re-engagement; it is not. It's one step forward, two steps back. We don't have a policy towards Russia and we may be, as I said, rather not at the table, but on the menu in case of the closer of U.S.-Russia relations.
Thank you very, ladies and gentlemen.