I think you put the big question there. Russia has been a little disappointed with Chinese assistance after the sanctions because there was a pivot to China, but from what I'm told the terms of the gas deal they signed were very bad for Russia and that stoked some anger among some Russian officials.
I also understand that commercial banks in China and in Hong Kong have refused to be a lender because they are afraid of getting caught up in U.S. sanctions, and they value their ability to do transactions in the United States more than in Russia. They are getting financing, but it's coming more from the government and state banks than from the commercial banks. I think there are already people in Russia who see Russia on the losing end of this bargain, and they see the growing power. China has pretty much swallowed up Turkmenistan at this point, and there's not a whole lot Russia can do about it.
I think Russia is just keen to keep these countries in its orbit through whatever means it has. Many of these are symbolic at this point. The Eurasian Union is really not a functional union anything like the European Union. I don't think it ever will be. All of the states in the Eurasian Union are not very happy being in the Eurasian Union. They were strong-armed into being there, and they also played Putin's weak hand after Crimea and western sanctions by, both President Nazarbayev and President Lukashenko, trying to strip much political stuff out of the agreement. It's a very empty agreement.
The Russians are also trying to weaken the Shanghai Cooperation Organization by expanding it to include Pakistan and India. They are doing whatever they can to try to weaken Chinese influence in a way that doesn't look like they are, but I do think Russia recognizes that they are in a losing battle right now.
I think it's even the cultural power. One thing throughout the region that strikes me is how about 20 years ago you heard a lot more Russian, and now you see Confucius centres in the major cities, at the major universities. This is happening not just in places like Kyrgyzstan, but it's happening in Armenia and it's happening in Kazakhstan. These places are close Russian allies and dependencies, and I think that says a lot about their desire to make sure they have options, not just Russia. But Russia, I think, is on the losing end of this battle.