The last time that spheres of influence were agreed upon was back in 1939, under the Hitler-Stalin or Molotov-Ribbentrop pact. We unfortunately directly suffered from that, but I think we all saw that it didn't help prevent what happened afterwards. The first big tragedy of World War II was the attack against Poland, and it ended with the big war between Germany and the Soviet Union after all.
I think there is a temptation to think that if we divide the world into spheres of influence—actually, the more modern expression for it is a multipolar world system—understanding that there are countries that have legitimate interests in other countries and that those legitimate interests are contrary to what the people of Ukraine, for instance, or Moldova or Georgia probably want to do, and that Russia has the right to stop them from reforming themselves and putting the values that we all share, such as democracy, human rights, the market economy, the rule of law in place, and if we follow what is currently known as the system in Russia, which is an authoritarian, a very, I would say, “conservative”, to be diplomatic, set of values and so on....
From that point of view, I earnestly believe that if we don't uphold the kind of liberal world order that means promotion of democracy, rule of law, and free trade as part of it—because I believe that nations who are trading fairly and freely are not aligned in spheres of influence, politically or militarily, but are aligned in the direction of more prosperity, more human rights.... That kind of liberal order, which really authoritarian regimes in the world do not like because it undermines their very existence, has prevented us from experiencing major military conflicts in the last 70 years.
Yes. There was a huge struggle between a totalitarian communist regime and the free world throughout the Cold War years, which ended with the collapse of both the Warsaw Pact and the Soviet Union. In the last 25 years, even with all the deficiencies we have seen, we have at least in my country experienced years of living standards rising consistently, during which we have become part of both NATO and the EU. Actually we have seen an expansion of stability and peace in Europe.
I believe that if there are attempts now to neglect smaller countries, to go back to 19th-century diplomacy with spheres of influence, with inevitable clashes at some point among those great powers, at the end of the day we will all suffer. I think that in general it would be in Russia's genuine interests that neighbouring countries, from Finland and the Baltics in the north to the Caucasus and Ukraine further down to the south, develop freely and in a way such that democracy and market economy and rule of law flourish. That would be the best security guarantee for Russia itself.
Unfortunately we missed an opportunity and Russia missed an opportunity back in the 1990s or the beginning of the 2000s for genuine reforms. Unfortunately, the country has run in a direction that I personally disapprove of.
Unfortunately the noise you hear from many is that the best way to maintain peace and stability in Europe and indeed in the world is to let them have what they want. If they get what they want today, they will demand more tomorrow, and at one point—nobody can say when—we are going to stop. That very much reminds me of the history, unfortunately, of the 1920s and 1930s.
We are the huge beneficiaries of those 25 years of freedom right now. I would say that defending what we have is the only way to actually maintain the core of our own existence, as your Atlantic or western world.