Belarus is a very interesting situation. Where to begin?
I guess one begins in Belarus with an extremely crafty and seasoned leader, Lukashenko. Relatively speaking, he came out of nowhere. He was a state-farm chairman who first won election in 1994, very early in Belarus' completely unexpected, I think, independence following the collapse of the U.S.S.R. in December 1991. He has ruled since then—not to use a cliché—with an iron fist.
Among the interesting features of the regime in Belarus is the fact that, whereas there have been some reorganizations and changes in nomenklatura in Russia with respect to the security services, in Belarus they still carry that classic epithet, “the KGB”. And that's not just nomenclature—it's somewhat symbolic, I would say, because Lukashenko's approach has been very much that of a dirigiste, as a former state-farm chairman, raised and honed in the Soviet Union where centralized authority and stability were key, and the approach to civil society such as it was, the approach to people's aspirations for democratic reform and greater openness, was viewed very much through the lens of stability.
With that approach, there's been something of a checkered history, because in realizing his commitment to preserve stability and keep himself in power, he's proved quite adept at playing between his obviously most important Russian neighbour to the east and the countries of the EU to the west.
We've had some periods of relative thaw that always swing back again. I recall that in 2008-09 he released a few political prisoners, and there was a real buzz within the EU more than on Canada's part. But even here, we were looking at the possibility of re-engaging Belarus. That was all undone by the crackdowns after the elections, the very patently falsified elections of 2010.
Then, more recently, we have moved into a relatively positive period—correct, David?—in terms of their showing relative openness to civil society. In that context we've had more engagement with Belarus, but he still continues to doing this dance between Russia and the west. The bottom line will always remain Lukashenko's view that the stability of Belarus means he stays in power, which places very sharp limits on his ability to open up to the degree that western partners would like to see.
Having said that, he's not absolutely incapable of standing up to Russia. The Russians were pushing very hard to have a new air base in Belarus, and he has managed to sort of finesse that specific issue.
Ironically, despite the imbalance of power with Russia, he's not without cards to play. I would suggest that Russia already has its hands more than full in terms of what it has got itself into in Ukraine and the challenges that Russia, from its perspective, sees itself facing with NATO's future deployment. So Russia is very cognizant of the utility of keeping Belarus relatively stable and onside. That, in turn, creates a little bit more space for Lukashenko, or “the Batka”, as he's known by nickname, to manoeuvre.
Going forward, I think Belarus is certainly a country to watch very closely. It's fascinatingly importantly placed in geostrategic terms. Again, just keep a close eye on it.
At the end of the day, I would say not to underestimate Lukashenko's ability to keep bobbing and weaving to keep himself in power, keep relative stability, and keep his very powerful eastern neighbour relatively content.