Evidence of meeting #55 for Foreign Affairs and International Development in the 42nd Parliament, 1st Session. (The original version is on Parliament’s site, as are the minutes.) The winning word was russian.
A recording is available from Parliament.
10:20 a.m.
Liberal
John McKay Liberal Scarborough—Guildwood, ON
—and they have not been eating well in the last number of years.
10:20 a.m.
Director General, European Affairs Bureau, Department of Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development
Yes, that's a very good question.
10:20 a.m.
Liberal
John McKay Liberal Scarborough—Guildwood, ON
I would be interested in your thoughts on how Mr. Putin continues to defy economic gravity.
When you look at Russia in terms of GDP, you can see that it's smaller than Canada. It's possibly the size of Texas in terms of GDP and is relatively insignificant in global terms. GDP per person is minimal. The population has flatlined. The economy shrank by 3.5%. Their military spending was 4.5% in 2015 and is now 9% of a relatively shrivelled GDP. All of this speaks to the issue of how long this can carry on.
Is this a real threat or an appearance of threat? I would be interested in your thoughts as to how long Mr. Putin can carry this on.
10:20 a.m.
Director General, European Affairs Bureau, Department of Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development
That's a great question.
Very quickly, because I think we're already over our time, when I spoke to the committee before, I might have used what still remains a compelling and fascinating analogy in talking about Russian politics. Certain observers talk about the battle in the mind and heart of any Russian: the battle between the television and the refrigerator.
Again, that speaks to my earlier comments about Syria, and the point made that it would seem to have been the case to date that in terms of being able to see on TV these high-tech weapons launching cruise missiles from the Caspian Sea, and Russia playing on Syria and standing up to the U.S. and the Security Council, the television image trumps for the average Russian—
10:20 a.m.
Liberal
10:20 a.m.
Director General, European Affairs Bureau, Department of Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development
No, sir.
That is more important to them than the fact that when they open their fridge, it's not as full as it was around 2007 or 2008 and they don't see the prospect of it filling up any time soon.
The wild card now, I would suggest, which everyone who follows Russia will be following closely going forward, and which I don't have a definitive answer to right now—no one does, I think—is indeed the meaning and the longer-term legacy of the protests that we just saw. This really is arguably.... Specifically, when you drill down and compare this round to the last one, the last time we saw big protests in Russia was in 2011-12, and a lot of the untoward turns we have seen in Putin's approaches, both domestically and internationally, stemmed from his approach to those initial 2011-12 protests.
Whereas that phenomenon in 2011-12 was very much a phenomenon of the disappointed middle classes who had benefited from the first 10 years of Putinism—I'm being simplistic here—and were disappointed that the economic gains they had been reaping...because growth had been very good, with oil high and what have you, for that first decade of Putin's rule. They were disappointed with his brazen decision in 2011 that Medvedev—no suspense—wasn't going to run for president but that he was going to run for president again. That's what sparked these protests. It seemed that it was largely in Moscow and St. Petersburg, largely by middle-aged professionals—
10:25 a.m.
Director General, European Affairs Bureau, Department of Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development
That brings me to the contrast now. It was across the country, and 80 or 90 different cities had protests.
10:25 a.m.
Liberal
John McKay Liberal Scarborough—Guildwood, ON
So you attribute unique significance to those recent protests.
10:25 a.m.
Director General, European Affairs Bureau, Department of Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development
I would say, again, that the jury has to remain out, but the initial impressions are that there were an awful lot of young people, people who have only known Putinism.
10:25 a.m.
Liberal
John McKay Liberal Scarborough—Guildwood, ON
Do you think that the Putin regime is actually disturbed by these protests?
10:25 a.m.
Director General, European Affairs Bureau, Department of Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development
Yes, and it should be. Not disturbed in the sense of seeing this as.... This is not the sort of thing that anyone sitting in the Kremlin likes to see, the manifestation that the people are dissatisfied and might seek change. I think it is cause for disquiet.
In terms of what it means going forward, again, I think we're just going to have to wait and see.
10:25 a.m.
Liberal
John McKay Liberal Scarborough—Guildwood, ON
Before my favourite chairman gives me the hook, the analysts have asked me to ask this question. Since we have the best analysts of any committee anywhere, anytime, I'm just going to put the question to you to get your response.
As the only regional organization that includes Russia, European states, central Asia, Canada, and the United States, what role does the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe play in the maintenance of security and the strengthening of democracy in eastern Europe and central Asia? Can it or should it be strengthened in any way?
10:25 a.m.
Director General, European Affairs Bureau, Department of Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development
It plays a very important role, and it would be very desirable if it could strengthened in any way. Obviously, because it's an organization that runs on consensus, its work has been made more difficult in the climate of much deeper east-west tensions we've been experiencing for the past few years.
In terms of the role it plays, it's very important. For example, just to name one aspect that's particularly useful to Canada, is the fact that the OSCE has an office in every capital of the five central Asian countries. I was saying earlier in response to one of the questions how limited, unfortunately, our own footprint is in central Asia. However, from those OSCE offices, we get very useful reporting on trends on the ground. By virtue of the OSCE's being there and our being part of the OSCE, it gives us great insight into developments in the region.
The ODIHR has been very active in programming to promote and support democracy. Last but not least, though it has faced difficulties because of our differences on the political level, particularly with Russia, I would argue, in getting back to the spirit of how it's important to talk with those with whom you disagree, it's arguably more important than ever going forward.
10:25 a.m.
Liberal
The Chair Liberal Bob Nault
Thank you very much, Mr. McKay, Mr. Sarty, and Mr. Morgan. Thank you for the extra time. It's been useful. This is a very important subject that, as we said at the beginning, is moving very quickly in terms of events. These events are extremely important to Canada, as we all know. Thank you again for spending time with the committee.
Colleagues, I'm going to suspend the committee for two minutes, and then we're going to go in camera and deal with one matter.
[Proceedings continue in camera]