I do not consider myself completely qualified to offer advice on the tactics of which to do. I assume that we can prepare for both at the same time. I did say in my remarks with Scotty coming up to the election, and between the election and the inauguration, that Trump should be taken at his word. He intends to do what he said. While some find him unpredictable, I don't. I think he is quite predictable, and he is going to enact his program. It appears that he will get a modified health care bill at least through the House today. Obviously it will have to be reconciled with the Senate, and that doesn't get it done, but that ties into the tax bill.
On the matters you mentioned, my guess, for what it's worth, is that he is going to have to produce some revenue enhancement to accompany these tax reductions. The one that the President himself has mentioned is in effect to take the anticipated decline in the gasoline price, and instead of giving that decline to the consumers putting what amounts to an additional tax on gasoline but not one that raises the price from where it is now. It is assumed in the administration that over time the price of gasoline in the United States will come down because [Technical difficulty—Editor] offshore drilling, increased fracking, and the reduction of imports.
The other that's been floating around, and it's one that I occasionally inflict upon my American readers in the National Review, is the tax on elective spending. It's not unavoidable spending, such as groceries or children's clothing, but luxury spending, or a fair swath of financial transactions. To the extent this impinges upon Wall Street, this president doesn't owe Wall Street anything anyway [Technical difficulty—Editor] done nothing but criticize him, but he can make it up to them by rolling back excessive regulation [Technical difficulty—Editor] Sarbanes-Oxley. I suspect that something like that will be worked out.
Now, it's not going to happen overnight, obviously, because it is so complicated and the atmosphere is so poisonous. As you know, Mr. Trump ran for President running against all factions of both parties. He ran against the Bushes as much as the Clintons and the Obamas. He ran against Wall Street, Hollywood, almost all the media, most of academia, the entire bureaucracy, and virtually every adult in Washington, D.C., 94% of whose voters voted against him. He did win, but the war continues. It is going to have to de-escalate at some point. If he gets some sort of health care measure through, it may be a signal that finally 20 years of gridlock in that system is breaking down.
My own view is that the Democrats cannot go on trying to stigmatize him as a madman, a lunatic, an illegitimate person who provokes, in the words of one of the New York Times columnists, Mr. Kristof, a whiff of “treason”. They just can't go on with this. And Colbert's outrageous comments on Monday night.... There will be a settling down. We will get back to a relatively normal government, though given the identity of the personalities, in particular the President, a rather flamboyant government.
On your question, I think that over time the tax question will be a bigger one. I leave it to you legislators and wouldn't presume to advise you on this point, but there are the implications to Canada of declining energy prices and a sharply lower corporate tax. I doubt if it will get down to 15%, as the President suggested last week. I imagine you have to compromise a little above that. The implications of that to Canada are clearly serious in terms of where international investors' money is apt to get into this North American market.
I'm not a trade wonk, and I don't want to get out of my depth, but I take the President at his word that his desires in respect of adjustments to trade arrangements with Canada are relatively minor. He has never expressed to me the slightest grievance against Canada, other than on the matter of its failure to live up to the 2% target for defence spending as a percentage of GDP amongst NATO countries. For what it's worth, my information is that they consider the latest budgetary estimates from our government on that subject to be rather disappointing, but I'm sure those matters are dealt with in official channels.