Thank you, chairman and honourable members of the committee. It's an honour to be here in front of this committee, which has often been a reference point throughout my career. I'll make my remarks in English.
That said, I can of course answer in French and maybe in Russian a bit, but not in Chinese.
Although I sent a detailed CV in advance, I should start by underlining, on the one hand, that I have had three postings in Asia. Iran was my first, then I was in Pakistan as high commissioner, and then Indonesia as ambassador. My three others were to NATO, Russia, and Egypt. The latter, if it were not for ancient geographical prescription, could very much belong to Asia as much as it belongs to Africa.
On the other hand, in my six years of policy planning at the Department of Foreign Affairs over a period of 13 years, I've been involved in pretty much every aspect of strategic thinking on the place of Canada in the world. You won't be surprised with a few thoughts on my part on Canadian foreign policy writ large, which in one way or another underpins our engagement in Asia, or the lack thereof. You will also understand how much I applaud your efforts to try to deepen the knowledge of Canadians regarding things Asian.
While I served my country on the international stage to the best of my abilities during my 38-year tenure in Foreign Affairs and International Trade, now GAC—it has so many acronyms—since leaving government, I have allowed myself to comment on international issues and Canadian government policies and processes to handle these. I draw your attention to the yearly papers produced in both official languages by the Conference of Defence Associations Institute, of which I was the executive vice-president for a number of years. I have either co-authored or authored these papers over the last four years, 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2016. I've given a few copies here. Unfortunately I don't have any 2016 copies left. They're out of print. Maybe they were just too good.
Over a span of four years, I've been able to assess a series of trends and Canada's adjustment to these changing times. There is a constant in these studies: the lack of a real Canadian policy towards Asia beyond platitudes along the lines of its being “an important region for Canada”. I'm not exaggerating by much. Given the high quality of the previous presentation by a very informed expert, I will focus more on the security dimension, but I will also start with some commonplace remarks that we've noted over the last 10 years.
The greatest platitude, if I can call it that, and yet a glaring reality, is that there is no such thing as a monolithic Asian continent. The one that matters most positively for Canada borders mostly on the Pacific and the China Seas, but clearly includes India as well. Notwithstanding the important security issues that have been discussed all day long, such as Chinese encroachment in the China Sea, the most glaring troubles of the region start west of India, into the extended Middle Eastern linkages.
The second point is that a general shift in trade and security to the Asia-Pacific region has been noted by Stewart Beck and others, where security is primarily built around a patchwork quilt of bilateral security arrangements rather than the kind of multilateral framework we enjoy within NATO. This is a region in need of a security architecture, even though we know perfectly well who will dominate it. That's why the decision made by Canada in 2012 to actually participate in the first iteration of the Trans-Pacific Partnership was indeed a major sign of engagement and quite a positive step, which was recently enshrined, albeit with a temporary hiccup. It is all the more important that in terms of trade with the region, Canada has been lagging behind our competitors. I was very pleased to hear the head of the Canada China Business Council, because over the past 15 years Canada's exports to China were much lower in terms of total value and rate of growth, so there's a lot to be done on that account.
An additional point is that despite claims to the contrary, there has been little movement in anything approximating a strategic shift beyond the strong trade focus of Canada. While we claim to be a three-ocean nation, our blue navy leaves a lot to be desired, particularly if one remembers that at the end of the Second World War the Canadian navy was the fifth largest in the world. The region that has suffered most from this state of affairs of Canada's maritime presence is definitely the Asia-Pacific region.
There is no doubt in my mind that your repeated visits to the region will make you a strong supporter of the ongoing effort to rebuild our navy to be able to play its part in the most important maritime theatre in the world.
The fact that—most likely for a certain lack of adequate preparation—the Prime Minister's attempt to launch a free trade negotiation with China failed. That fact does not mean that the Canadian government will not continue to engage China, but it underscores that a very careful review of Canada's strategy toward China remains essential as the key subset of a fully articulated Asia-Pacific strategy. And that strategy must take into account the evolving strategic outlook in the region.
Herein lies my key message. At the broadest level, any real review should take into account the impact of the 2008 economic crisis, which affected mostly the western world, and could be the most significant event of the last 50 years, on a par with the fall of the Berlin Wall, as it has irreversibly opened two Chinese doors to the world—economic and political.
Economically, 2008 had many countries in the world starting to look askance at the western version of the capitalist model and its so-called Adam Smith mantra of the invisible hand. Many Asian countries turned their eyes toward the Chinese version of state capitalism with a far less invisible hand, while still allowing winners and losers to battle it out within the ambit of clearly defined state objectives. Today Asian countries all have China as their number one trading partner, and they have adopted in large part the same “more effective” economic model. The belt and road initiative has created a further impetus despite its flaws and uncertainties. That's on the economic side.
Politically, in the same vein, contrasting the vagaries of the American presidency to the clear-sighted approach of the Chinese “emperor” and the “advantages” of an authoritarian regime guiding economic policy, many leaders in the region have felt empowered to reduce political freedom and democratic practices, transforming the legacy of Lee Kuan Yew into a permanent virtue of self-preservation—hence, Duterte and others in the region.
Canada cannot ignore these developments and would benefit, at least from a security perspective, from look carefully at the Australians who, as a Canadian scholar said, are “better at conceptualizing their security and defence perspectives, formulating them into strategies and policies and actually spending the capital determined by these guiding documents for defence procurement and renewal.” The Australians do it well. We do it poorly.
Canada may live in a quieter environment with a powerful ally to the south—although Minister Freeland has rightly pointed out that we cannot count on the U.S. automatically—but we need to be clear-eyed and ensure that while trading with our Asian partners, we don't lose sight of their geostrategic ambitions and don't sacrifice our fundamental values in the process.
From a security perspective, Canada cannot be content with a defence policy review that is not based on a national security concept and an accompanying foreign policy. I've lamented time and again the lack of a real foreign policy review, which should underpin a defence policy review, and not the other way around.
I agree with my friend and former colleague, Stewart Beck, CEO of the Asia Pacific Foundation, that “now is the time for Canada to make decisions, take action, and differentiate itself in the Asia Pacific region.... [O]ur country is a beacon and open to the flows of people; however, to be successful...Canada needs focus, intensity, consistency and, more importantly, non-incremental change.” However, and this is the key, that policy must be accompanied by a broader political and strategic commitment, what I would call a full-service policy.
Thank you.