I'd like to follow up with Dr. Boutilier about your comments on the South China Sea. It's an open secret that the conflict there is based on resources. There is an estimated 11 billion barrels of oil in the South China Sea and an estimated 190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. We also know that it's a major waterway for international trade; almost $5 trillion U.S. goes through that waterway. There is a naval arms race there with the Indian, Japanese, Australian, and the Malaysian navies.
There was an attempt in 2015 by John Kerry at the ASEAN summit to have the three halts. That seemed to have started a conversation. I know they are going to negotiate now on a multilateral basis, as opposed to China at that time wanting to do more bilateral negotiations on that.
Mr. Grinius, you mentioned something, as did you, Mr. Boutilier, in a very roundabout way. Mr. Grinius, you said there's an ascendancy of China. Is that not the classic definition of the Thucydides trap? Is that not what we're faced with today?