I would like to say that I agree with virtually everything my colleagues have said today, except about the South China Sea. I see the South China Sea very differently. Most people have not noticed that since the Permanent Court of Arbitration ruling came down in favour of the Philippines in 2016, China has abided by it to the letter. Even though it said it did not accept jurisdiction and did not recognize the outcome, China has been very careful not to do anything that's inconsistent with that ruling.
For example, since then, China has not once mentioned the nine-dashed line; that has disappeared. It has stopped talking about threats to its sovereignty in the South China Sea, and it complains about American freedom of navigation operations in the language of “threats to stability” and “threats to peace and security”. China was in the unfortunate position of claiming all of the islands and features in the South China Sea but actually possessing relatively few of them, and in the Spratly Islands possessing low-quality islands. The Philippines, Vietnam, and Taiwan, ironically, actually possess the best natural islands in the South China Sea.
The island-building campaign that China embarked upon was designed to assert its claims, of course, but primarily to be able to enforce an air defence identification zone, which was on their to-do list. What we're seeing now is the completion of those artificial islands. They are not building new ones. They have stopped dredging. All of the equipment they're now putting on those artificial islands is part of a plan developed five to seven years ago, before the Permanent Court of Arbitration ruling came down.
China is actually keeping its nose very clean on the South China Sea at the moment. They are a signatory to UNCLOS and feel bound by its provisions, so they're in a uncomfortable position, where they cannot look weak to the domestic audience but at the same time they can't afford to alienate the international audience. They're walking that tightrope very effectively.
I'm actually very optimistic that the South China Sea is not an issue that will be with us for very long.