Evidence of meeting #93 for Foreign Affairs and International Development in the 42nd Parliament, 1st Session. (The original version is on Parliament’s site, as are the minutes.) The winning word was region.
A recording is available from Parliament.
Professor, Department of Political Science, Carleton University, As an Individual
Who are you asking first?
Professor, Department of Political Science, Carleton University, As an Individual
Let me just say a few words.
First of all, I think that in the case of Southeast Asia, the economy came first; the military came much later. I think, in that sense, that's a good reason for optimism because, at the end of the day, China has to have good relations with its neighbours.
China's posture took off at the beginning of this century, largely because during the Asian financial crisis of 1997-98, China didn't devalue the renminbi and therefore undercut the ASEAN countries and their exports. Then it built on that, moving towards free trade with ASEAN and putting the wind behind free trade in the region when it established its ASEAN+3 relationship.
Because of that relationship and because ASEAN is so important to China, I think China will still be cautious in how far it pushes its neighbours in that region on the military and other side. Because it is its own backyard, it would like to have a positive image. It would also like to engage them in trade.
I am relatively confident. I also think they may well end up negotiating the code of conduct on the South China Seas, which they've said they were supposed to negotiate by the end of this year. It may well happen, because China needs its neighbours and because it's looking over its shoulder at the U.S.
The issue for us—and the interesting thing—is that now that we've signed the CPTPP, what relationship will the CPTPP have with the RCEP? What is the future of free trade in the Asia-Pacific, which has been talked about as far as APEC is concerned for over 20 years. There will be a new momentum there for completing free trade within the Asia-Pacific.
I am excited about that. I think we should use this as bridging, if we're negotiating free trade with China, toward a comprehensive regional free trade framework. That would put wind in the sails of global free trade.
As an Individual
The regional comprehensive economic partnership will do good things for the ties among ASEAN+6. That can translate into one of two things. Either it will create an outcome in which there is such interdependency that conflict over the South China Sea is anathema and no one will think about it, or it could be a situation in which regional countries are so dependent on China that they wouldn't dare stand in the way if China decided to change things again. The situation now is that we're coming out of the end of a period, as David pointed out, when China stepped back. However, it's also stepped back at a time when it's created a status quo thanks to four years of land reclamation that has created an environment in the region. In the South China Sea, it is more advantageous to it than five years prior.
It depends on where you stand on the impact of trade on conflict. Either it makes you come with a foregone conclusion or it creates this trade dependency between Southeast Asian countries and China. I think it's probably the former. That's a lot of countries; it's 16 countries or more in a trade agreement. I'm optimistic that it would modify tensions at the same time.
CIGI Chair of Global Security, Balsillie School of International Affairs, As an Individual
It's worth remembering that the RCEP was a Japanese idea, not a Chinese one. It's not necessarily a tool of Chinese hegemony. There's nothing necessarily inconsistent with RCEP and CPTPP or any other multilateral agreement, so it could be a good thing.
On the CPTPP by the way, I think that turned out to be a best-of-all-worlds story. President Trump stepping back meant that the other countries could go ahead and agree to take away all of the key provisions that provided asymmetrical benefits to the United States to the detriment of the other signatories, particularly on intellectual property and investor-state dispute settlement mechanisms. With luck, the United States will come back to the CPTPP on the revised terms. That would be the best of all possible worlds for Canada, and I think for the other members.
On the South China Sea and economic assets, there are hydrocarbon deposits in the South China Sea. Most of them are not exploitable because nobody will insure against the risks, in view of the maritime and territorial disputes. China is the only country that can socialize the insurance costs of exploration. China recently has been talking about joint development with Vietnam, another signal that perhaps it's willing to be much more moderate in its claims and its [Technical difficulty—Editor].
Also those hydrocarbon assets are going to be increasingly stranded as we try to decarbonize the global economy. I don't think they're a very big deal. What is a very big deal is the fisheries. The South China Sea has an extremely rich fishery, and all of the countries in the region depend upon it. That's something that has to be managed multilaterally. That fishery is already over-exploited, and I think China is beginning to appreciate that to play nice with the neighbours in the South China Sea is the most effective way to make sure there is a sustainable fishery in that sea, which people depend on for their livelihood.
Liberal
The Chair Liberal Bob Nault
Colleagues, on behalf of all of you I want to thank our three witnesses. I think this has been a very good session, and we quite enjoyed it.
On behalf of all of us, thank you for taking the time to be present.
Colleagues, we're going to take a one-minute break before we have have a couple of minutes' worth of business that we need to do; otherwise, our Subcommittee on International Human Rights will have no budgets. I need to get you to move, then approve, those small budgets.
We're going to take a break, clear the room, go into camera, and get that done. Then we'll be on our way.
[Proceedings continue in camera]
