Thanks for the question.
I would say we are looking at some catastrophic outcomes. The possibility of losing 20 years of progress is very real in the nutrition world. We're looking at setbacks in equality even more. We're looking at the issue of governments moving a lot of their existing budgets, which are under significant pressure because of COVID, to responding to COVID and away from investments in the social sector.
My fear is that the economic disruption we're going to see—and I like your expression, “the long tail of COVID”, because that's where I think the sting will be, in the tail.... That's where some of the impacts are going to be even more significant than those we've seen elsewhere.
I think we're going to see governments spending more and more of their money on the treatment side and less on the prevention side. As countries move into crisis, as children move into crisis and are farther down the curve of severe, acute malnutrition, you're going to see the need to spend more money on more expensive treatments instead of investing in those community-level structures that are a critical part of the health system to help prevent some of those burdens. That's why it's key to lean in right now.
As I've said before and as Dr. Kanem has said, those impacts are falling most heavily on women and girls, and we have to understand that it's not just a single word score of damage; it's a double and a triple word score of damage. When a mother is malnourished, the child goes on to be low birth weight, with a higher chance of stunting. When that child who is stunted grows up and goes to school, their learning outcomes are known to be subpar, and the income they earn later in life is also much less.
We're talking about the need for a smart focus that can break intergenerational transfers of poverty. While we talk about the greatest transfer of wealth, from baby boomers to gen X, the greatest transfer of poverty we have ever seen is about to take place right now, and this is the time to lean in completely.
To address a point raised earlier about missed opportunities, the world is structured and financed, and so is the COVID response, to create missed opportunities. I hope what this committee takes away is the fact that while it's perhaps a happy accident that Dr. Kanem and I are on the same panel, the point that Canada and other donors need to take a “no missed opportunities” lens to what we're doing is essential.
There is no world in which investing in education without looking at nutrition or sexual and reproductive health makes sense. It's just a recipe for missed opportunities. There is a lot we can do by being focused and intentional, and there's a lot we can do as a country by picking our niches wherever we find areas in which Canada can lead.
Thank you.