Good afternoon, and thank you for the invitation.
I have worked on and in the South Caucasus, namely Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia, since 1998. This includes legal research, law teaching and election monitoring in all three countries. I've also visited Nagorno-Karabakh for my research, albeit some years ago.
International humanitarian law or the law of armed conflict is my main field of study and it is within that regional and legal framework in mind that my comments are framed.
Let me start by welcoming the decision by Minister Garneau earlier this month to cancel the export permits to Turkey that were suspended earlier in the fall. It was the right decision and a decision of integrity. However, contrary to demonstrating how robust our arms export control regime is, the entire episode shows that our controls fall short. My conclusion is that there was no basis for Canada to trust the Turkish regime with Canadian-made weapons in the first instance, and that we need to move towards a more proactive way of assessing our arms exports.
As you know, the ATT and Canada's implementing legislation is the directly applicable legal framework. One of the problems as we learn to apply the framework, however, is that relevant considerations for determining whether a substantial risk exists that Canadian-made weapons could be used to commit serious violations of international law are not spelled out.
Global Affairs Canada has set out a definition of substantial risk, but relevant specific considerations regarding risk assessments are not identified. Nonetheless, there is best practice out there. For example, the International Committee of the Red Cross, even before the ATT, provided a list of proposed indicators states could use in assessing the risk that arms exports might be used in the commission of serious violations of international humanitarian law. In other words, the substantial risk test or the value of mitigating measures need not be so open-ended as is currently the case.
Practical questions to ask as suggested by the Red Cross include whether the recipient maintains strict control over its arms and their further transfer, whether a recipient has committed serious violations of IHL—international humanitarian law—or has taken all feasible measures to prevent violations, and whether the recipient country has in place the legal, judicial and administrative measures necessary for the repression of violations of IHL.
Let's apply some of these suggested criteria to Turkey. For starters, we know from Libya that Turkey has not maintained strict and effective control over its arms. Second, while the drafters of Global Affairs' final report on the review of export permits suggest that "the Turkish military is a professional army that acts in accordance with its international obligations", military coups, attempted coups and purges are regular features of Turkey's modern history. Further, as the Erdogan regime becomes more bellicose at home and abroad, credible reports of IHL violations by Turkish and Turkish-backed fighters have been revealed in recent years, including in Syria in the fall of 2019.
Now perhaps all of this would lead us to a proceed-with-caution type of approach rather than a red flag if there were democratic oversight of the Turkish military domestically. After all, every country has challenges when it comes to military oversight. Nonetheless, Turkey is in the hands of an authoritarian government with little respect for human rights. The judicial harassment of civil society actors is well known and the judiciary itself has been compromised through purges. There is no true domestic oversight of the Turkish military or executive.
Let me turn back now squarely to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The conflict was never frozen. It was a simmering one that frequently boiled over, and, in most years, left scores of casualties. It was also a conflict with long-standing Turkish support for Azerbaijan. The Turkish state has proven itself intransigent in terms of any real desire to repair the relationship with Armenia, and meanwhile, the relationship with Azerbaijan has only been strengthened in recent years for cultural and strategic reasons. Turkey trains officers of the Azeri armed forces; it supplies weapons to Azerbaijan and it holds military joint exercises with Azerbaijan.
If the arms sales to Turkey, and Saudi Arabia as well, reveal weaknesses in our control mechanisms, how can we do better? It's clear from previous testimony before this committee that Global Affairs engages in consultation with industry partners. What about consultation with human rights or other civil society groups? Why is it up to journalists, NGOs and diaspora communities to bring violations of end-user agreements to Canada's attention?
In the case of the South Caucasus, part of the problem is that we have no real presence on the ground, no embassies and, frankly, little diplomatic capital. But the absence of local intelligence should make us even more vigilant in assessing regional partnerships and the likelihood of armed sales or transfers.
Other witnesses appearing before the committee have noted that there are competing interests. Some have labelled it a “conflict of interest” between promoting Canadian-made defence products and abiding by our global commitments.
One thing is clear: The current system can lead to diplomatic setbacks when permits are suspended or cancelled. And hurt feelings in significant diaspora communities, in this case the Armenian diaspora community, surely are not good for Canadian business or good for our multicultural polity.
Possible solutions include routinized parliamentary scrutiny, independent oversight or expert opinions and, at the very least, structured consultations with civil society groups and more concrete criteria to apply the substantial risk test.
Thank you.