Thank you.
That's the toughest question, I think.
Many times, in hindsight, these conflicts were visible in advance. As for the signals they saw coming, it's hard at the time to know exactly what the trigger will be.
Canada had a mission and a long-standing engagement in Sudan for quite some time prior to this particular conflict. At the time of the revolution, in 2019, we upgraded the chargé d'affaires to an ambassador in recognition of the toppling of al-Bashir, the president who had had control of the country for 30 years, in order to be able to provide support for that transition to a democratic Sudan. That included reopening the development program that had previously been closed in Sudan, as well as working with IFIs to support the institutions in Sudan to be able to reform and respond to the opportunity that was presented with the end of the al-Bashir regime and the introduction of a civilian-led government.
Unfortunately, what happened subsequently was that the leaders of the RSF and SAF undertook a coup and toppled Prime Minister Hamdok and the civilian-led government, and decided to take power for themselves.
There was a UN mission there at the time, called UNITAMS. Our ambassador was very closely involved in supporting that mission's efforts—as well as like-minded nations, like the U.S., the U.K. and Norway—engaging with the SAF and RSF and encouraging them to return to a process of a civilian-led government.
Ultimately, what has proven to be the case is these are two organizations looking to control Sudan themselves that have decided to solve their disputes through military means. As we are discovering through the very challenging mediation process, the opportunities to encourage them to come to a constructive and peaceful solution are really quite limited.