Good morning. Thank you very much for inviting me as a witness for your inquiry.
I'm sure you've heard plenty of evidence during these hearings about the inequity of the global vaccine rollout. I have to say that this inequity was predictable. The Economist Group forecast it back in May 2020, when the vaccines were still being developed. A subsequent map we published that forecast that low-income countries would not see large-scale vaccination until 2023 or beyond went viral, because it was so controversial. It has since been vindicated by events.
There were many reasons for our prediction. One was the funding and purchase deals that were being used to support the research and to secure early supplies. We realized that global supplies would be slow to ramp up, prompting vaccine hoarding. We expected bottlenecks in shipping and logistics, as well as delivery difficulties at the local level, particularly in countries with weak health care systems. Finally, we reckoned on vaccine hesitancy reducing uptake in many countries to differing degrees.
In reality, the vaccine rollout has been quicker than we expected in some countries. UAE, Rwanda and Cambodia spring to mind. COVAX has been one reason for this, but so have the efforts of these countries as well as vaccine donations by other governments and institutions, including Canada. Nevertheless, there are still 2.7 billion people across the world who are unvaccinated. Most of them live in low-income economies.
Other witnesses have spoken about the health impacts of this unequal vaccine rollout, including the room it leaves for dangerous COVID mutations. The Economist Group has also highlighted the economic impact. We predicted in September 2021 that vaccine inequity would cost the world $2.3 trillion in lost GDP, with poor countries bearing the brunt of that. Over the four years from 2022 to 2025, we predicted that sub-Saharan Africa would lose around 2.9% of GDP as a result of low vaccination rates. The Middle East and Africa would lose 1.4% of GDP, and Asia-Pacific 1.3%. In contrast, losses in other regions, such as North America and Europe, would be minimal.
These forecasts point to the severe economic as well as health impacts of vaccine inequity, but the question the panel is looking at is whether intellectual property rights played a crucial role in this inequity, and whether global relaxation of patent rights would help.
Although companies such as Moderna have said that they would not enforce patents during the pandemic, proponents of the waiver have argued that it would give legal security to generic producers. However, I doubt that a waiver would have prevented the lack of global vaccine supplies that was the main source of inequity in 2021. The right to produce innovative medicines can be protected in three ways—through patents and IP rights, but also, in most countries, through marketing exclusivity and data exclusivity rights.
What are all these protections protecting? They're not just legal barriers. They're essentially about the protection of knowledge. This includes the technical knowledge about the formulation but also the somewhat unwritten understanding about the production process. I would argue that this knowledge can be acquired only through technology transfer, which requires long-term buy-in and co-operation from the original developer. That co-operation would not be forthcoming if IP rights were waived against their will.
I base this opinion partly on my experience in speaking to companies in developing markets about previous efforts to waive patents under TRIPS—for example, in Brazil, in the legislation allowing compulsory licensing, which was strengthened during the pandemic. Despite this, the country's pharmaceutical companies have in recent years preferred to use voluntary licences negotiated with the patent holder, because it gives them access to that knowledge and technology transfer. Fiocruz, for example, struck a deal with AstraZeneca that has allowed it not only to produce that vaccine but also to develop its own.
Technology transfer takes time, and so does ramping up production. That proved very difficult at first during the pandemic, partly because of global shortages of active pharmaceutical ingredients. However, more recently these voluntary licensing deals or contracts, supported by various government institutions, have been successful in raising global output of COVID vaccines. As other witnesses have noticed, supply is no longer a barrier to the vaccine rollout.
I do believe, furthermore, that the IP protections were helpful to the innovation that produced these vaccines in the first place. Some of the more publicly funded vaccines, including the Russian, Chinese and Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccines, did have less of a commercial imperative.
However, the mRNA and other technologies behind the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines were largely developed in the commercial realm in the decades before COVID.
According to a report in Nature, by 2019 there were already 130 mRNA patents, of which 70% were filed by industry, notably by Moderna, CureVac, BioNTech and GSK. The reason these companies invested in this research for decades was because these technologies have wide potential, well beyond COVID. These mRNA technologies can be used to combat other infectious diseases such as HIV, as well as cancer and genetic disorders.
That is why I would argue that waving patent protections for COVID vaccines, against the wishes of the patent holders, would not help with vaccine inequity because it would deter the transfer of knowledge. It could also adversely affect future innovation in life-saving medicines if investors felt the patents were not secure.