You are talking about things that are not really related, but I will try to answer your question.
First of all, American intelligence is gathered in a number of ways. The intelligence from 2003 was not gathered in the same way. There have been advances in American intelligence technology, organization and communication. We hope that the information is good—fingers crossed.
Troop movements are monitored by third parties using satellites.
There is also the issue of perception. Russia wants us to believe that it is conducting exercises and that it has the right to act independently and autonomously to secure its borders against instability. This is true. However, the military exercises being conducted are on a large scale. One might wonder whether those exercises are proportional to the current problem.
We can also look at what neighbouring countries are doing. As I already stated, Denmark is starting to worry, and that is something Canada should follow closely. Historically, Denmark has not wanted to become involved in conflicts or to accept American troops. It is one of the rare NATO countries that has no allied country on its territory. The fact that Denmark is asking the U.S. to sign a bilateral agreement sends a relatively strong signal that there may be divisions within NATO.