Thank you very much.
I'd like to pose four questions to your committee.
Is Canada doing enough to deter a Russian invasion of Ukraine? What do we do if deterrence fails? What additional measures should be taken to strengthen Ukraine's resilience to reduce the risks of state and societal collapse as the crisis evolves? Finally, what should Canada's role be in strengthening arms control and in terms of confidence-building measures to de-escalate the crisis and reduce the risks of military confrontation?
We're currently in the preattack phase. Is there more that Canada can do to help Ukraine? Some argue that we should provide small arms and anti-tank weapons, which are sitting in warehouses and were originally destined for Kurdish forces in Iraq. Maybe.
Cybersecurity assistance, in co-operation with Estonia and the European Union, is an option, but time is running out.
As noted by your previous panel, we should also be ready for cyber-attacks and social media disinformation campaigns that will be directed at us.
What should we be planning for now if deterrence fails and there is some form of Russian incursion? NATO allies on the front lines will be asking for a lot more direct military support and assistance, especially the Baltic states. Are we ready for that?
Europe, NATO and Canada should be ready to handle a major refugee crisis, which in the worst-case scenario could mean five million or more forcibly displaced persons.
How will NATO respond to Russian attacks against Ukraine’s civilian populations, which could kill tens of thousands of people? In previous crises—Bosnia, Kosovo and Libya—NATO used its military assets to impose no-fly zones. That's not really an option here.
When it comes to economic sanctions, there are financial sanctions against Russian banks and financial institutions, high-tech export bans and comprehensive trade and investment sanctions, but I would draw your committee's attention to FARA, the frozen assets repurposing act legislation, which is currently before the Senate of Canada. It is a form of “Magnitsky plus”. Don't just freeze, but seize Putin's and his henchmen's monies and foreign holdings, and repurpose them to help his victims. Maybe that's an option that should be considered if he attacks Ukraine.
Energy prices have skyrocketed. A Russian invasion of Ukraine will almost certainly lead to a further spike in prices, not just because of the cancellation of the Nord Stream 2, but because major Russian gas exports to Europe currently transit through Ukraine.
Canadian consumers will be affected at a time when central Canada is also vulnerable to supply disruptions if Line 5 is shut down by the governor of the state of Michigan. It's a perfect storm scenario.
A Russian attack will be extremely damaging to Ukraine’s economy. There's likely to be a run on the hryvnya and a balance of payments and fiscal crisis. Ukraine is also going to lose major sources of revenue from the transit fees it gets from transporting Russian gas to Europe. Its health care and social service systems could also be overwhelmed.
If they're not already doing so, the IMF, EU, World Bank and other international institutions will need to develop contingency plans to help Ukraine deal with a severe economic crisis. What's Canada going to contribute in this scenario, beyond what we're already doing? What contingency plans are in place for a major humanitarian emergency?
If Russia stands down, there's probably going to be a discussion about a new security architecture. There will have to be a major commitment to new arms control and confidence-building measures.
Efforts to reinvigorate the NATO-Russia Council as a key forum for consultation and co-operation should be looked at. Canada played a key role in its origins and development.
Many arms control and confidence-building measures for Europe have gone into the paper shredder. Open Skies and the INF Treaty will need to be resuscitated, along with other confidence and security-building measures that would disallow military exercises near another country’s borders.
Historically, as you all know, Canada has played a critical role in building Europe’s arms control and confidence-building architecture. We will need to step up to the plate again.