Thank you very much, Mr. Chair.
Study and analysis previous international sanctions regimes have shown that sanctions do not stop wars. However, sanctions regimes are still widely used by Western governments, even if results are always uncertain. If war is not an option, sanctions show that, even without binding means, it is possible to express disagreement, at least symbolically and diplomatically.
Sanctions are a relatively inexpensive political instrument in comparison to armed conflict. Nevertheless, it's impossible to define the exact level of measures required to have a real impact on the sanctioned state's policy.
However, certain factors are decisive in determining the effectiveness of a sanctions regime.
The most important factor is certainly the economic cost imposed on the sanctioned state. The higher the cost, the more likely it is to change its policy.
The second factor is the type of political regime in the sanctioned country. Sanctions are far more effective when imposed on a democracy than an autocracy.
The third factor is stability. A state that is rather weak or facing economic woes will be more vulnerable to the application of a sanctions regime. Even a dictator with little concern for the welfare of their people will have trouble managing a country on the brink of chaos.
The fourth factor has to do with ties between the sanctioning state and the sanctioned state. For sanctions to be effective, the sanctioning state must have a significant and well-developed economic relationship with the sanctioned state. If trade is significant, the sanctioned state will lose a more important source of revenue than if trade is limited.
The fifth factor relates to international cohesion. The majority of the sanctioned state's economic partners must impose sanctions to maximize their chances of success. In the absence of international cohesion, the sanctioned state may find alternative suppliers to those who are imposing the sanctions.
A phenomenon like rallying around the flag tends to limit the effectiveness of sanctions regimes. In some cases, if civil society decides that their country should not be placed under sanctions, national unity can strengthen around power.
This can also happen in entirely different circumstances: If the people are too reliant on their leaders for food and basic necessities, civil society may rally around the leaders because, as Moscow University law professor Andrei Kolesnikov explains, people prefer to support the hand that feeds them because if it were to disappear, they might not be fed at all.
Finally, time is also a major variable in determining the effectiveness of sanctions regimes. Sanctions often force sanctioned states to turn inward and develop their own industries to become self-sufficient, or to find new economic partners to replace those lost as a result of sanctions. In the long term, this makes the state more able to function as a dictatorship or less dependent on imports and goods from sanctioning states. The effects of sanctions then become extremely limited.
In the specific case of Russia, I'd like to quote the analyst Perun to show what can be expected from a sanctions regime:
“Sanctions don’t so much stop production as force you to spend the time and the money to evade them. They are not so much bullet wounds as mosquito bites.”
Sanctions become effective through the cumulative effect of all these inconveniences.
Right now, around 70% of Russian banks' international assets are subject to sanctions and have been made inaccessible. At the same time, some 20 billion Euros in assets of more than 1,500 sanctioned individuals and entities have been frozen. In the past year, Russian exports have fallen, while imports have risen. Almost a third of Russia's budget is now devoted to military spending, which has slowed down its economic development.
It's certainly hard to determine what effects can be attributed to sanctions alone, let alone Canadian sanctions on their own. However, because international cohesion is paramount to the success of a sanctions regime, Canada's efforts must be analyzed in a more global perspective where the efforts of all partner states count.
Thank you very much.