In September of 2023, Azerbaijan launched a new military offensive to retake the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh. Although in violation of the 2020 ceasefire, the operation was designed to take over the region while Russia remained bogged down in Ukraine and mainly uninterested in fulfilling its mandate as a peace guarantor. After a swift Azerbaijani military victory over Armenian separatists, 120,000 ethnic Armenians fled, fearing for their lives.
The scale and swiftness of this potential ethnic cleansing is reminiscent of what happened in the former Yugoslavia in the 1990s. Rather than being driven by mass murder, the situation is the result of years of mistrust and fear between the two ethnic communities and the Azerbaijani government. Some cases of potential war crimes, including extrajudicial killings and the destruction of heritage sites and civilian properties, were documented during the 2023 military operation. The ethnic cleansing was mostly the result of a horrible choice that ethnic Armenians had to make in the chaos of Azerbaijan's military operation—meaning surviving in Armenia or leaving their ancestral homelands.
Although the Azerbaijan government guaranteed the safe return of Armenians to Nagorno-Karabakh as Azeri citizens, coming back to the antebellum status quo appears almost impossible.
First, as ethnic minorities, they fear potential violence and ethnic hatred from security forces as well as from newly relocated local citizens of Azerbaijan. Years of ethnic tensions in the region have now drastically transformed the relationships between Azeris and Armenians.
Second, Azerbaijan remains far from a functional liberal democracy, adopting a very repressive approach against opposition forces and journalists in general. The rule of law that in theory could support the protection of Armenians remains institutionally weak, even maybe non-existent.
Furthermore, the Aliyev government has proven unwilling to protect Armenians in the last few years and before. Before the 2023 military operation to retake Nagorno-Karabakh, the Azerbaijani government imposed a blockade of the Lachin corridor, the only road to reach the Armenian enclave after the 2020 ceasefire. The region suffered a de facto blockade, starving the Armenian population and denying them the right to survive in Karabakh for several months.
The lack of international reaction and involvement after the 2020 war and the more recent 2023 military operation has emboldened the Azeri government. Rather than looking for peace, there is fear of an extension of the military conflict to Armenia, most likely in southern Armenia in the province of Syunik. The military occupation of the Zangezur corridor would create a land bridge between the newly controlled Nagorno-Karabakh and Nakhchivan.
When we're discussing peace processes in the region, we're discussing the risk of escalation that would involve a war of conquest and a war of aggression on the side of Azerbaijan, as well as a potential alliance between Ankara and Baku.
I have policy recommendations for the government.
The Government of Canada should support Armenia's ratification of their own statute. That would help to protect Armenian minorities and investigate what happened in Nagorno-Karabakh.
The role of the ICC, the International Criminal Court, would be to prosecute criminal actions that happened in Nagorno-Karabakh. That would be similar to the case we have witnessed of Bangladesh and Myanmar in recent last years. This means that although Armenia and Azerbaijan are not part of the International Criminal Court and have not ratified the ICC, the status of refugees in Armenia could fall under the ICC jurisdiction if Armenia ratified their own statute in the upcoming year. That would lead to a potential referral of the case of the ethnic cleansing in Nagorno-Karabakh to the ICC, if Azerbaijan is unwilling or unable to prosecute the crimes committed.
We have already discussed imposing potential sanctions on Azerbaijan if the country violates Armenia's territorial integrity in the south or impedes the return of the Armenian population.
Finally, it appears critical that Canada ensure the protection of historical sites, national symbols and religious sites, including monasteries and villages, that are currently being destroyed in Azerbaijan by local actors as well as by Azerbaijani forces.
Thank you very much.