Evidence of meeting #87 for Foreign Affairs and International Development in the 44th Parliament, 1st session. (The original version is on Parliament’s site, as are the minutes.) The winning word was armenian.
A recording is available from Parliament.
Bloc
Stéphane Bergeron Bloc Montarville, QC
I want to thank my fellow members. That is very kind.
For a while now, Azerbaijan has been referring to southern Armenia as western Azerbaijan, and that narrative is becoming more prominent.
Is it likely to complicate peace talks? Does it suggest that Azerbaijan could ultimately seize that territory?
Deputy Director, Kennan Institute, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, As an Individual
I apologize for not getting my earpiece up quickly enough with the first question.
Yes, discussion of a greater western Azerbaijan could complicate peace agreements. However, I think we have to remember, if we're going to look at both sides and be fair to both sides, that Armenia has for a long time talked about a greater Armenia, which would extend not just into Azerbaijan but also into different states.
Again, in terms of mediation, that's where Georgia could be very effective in cautioning Azerbaijan by saying, “Don't talk about a western Azerbaijan. Let's establish where the boundaries are, but let's not expand beyond what boundaries we think are appropriate.”
Liberal
NDP
Heather McPherson NDP Edmonton Strathcona, AB
Thank you very much.
I'd like to thank all the witnesses for being here virtually and in person. This is an important study for this committee to be undertaking. Unfortunately, I was not in Armenia with you. I deeply wish I had been, but I wasn't able to attend. It was my colleague Ms. Mathyssen who was there instead.
I do think it is a study that would be very useful if this committee could visit. As we look at the role Canada can play going forward in this conflict, Canada has shown.... We have a new embassy. There is some diplomatic work being done.
I'd like to get a sense of what more Canada can do, and I'd like to focus on the humanitarian and the diplomatic roles.
First of all, I would ask this. We have heard that a financial contribution of $3.9 million is being used to address the humanitarian crisis resulting from the conflict. Is that sufficient? If you could comment on what is resulting from that, it would be great.
I would like to start with Ms. Wistrand and then go to our colleagues online.
Deputy Director, Kennan Institute, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, As an Individual
I want to commend Canada again for taking an interest in the situation and wanting to commit resources.
I can't comment personally on how the $3.9 million is being spent. All I can recommend, as I mentioned at the end of my remarks, is that I do think there has been a tendency for countries to pick sides with respect to this. If Canada is coming in as a new player, I would say the most immediate need is to deal with the humanitarian crisis among the Armenians who have arrived in Armenia. I think that is one set of circumstances.
However, having observed for 15 or 20 years the Azerbaijani IDP situation, we know that some of them are still living in circumstances that are not the greatest. If Canada were to extend an arm and say it's not a humanitarian situation anymore and that it's a long-term development situation, I think we could look at both the circumstances from that and ask, for those who do want to return to Karabakh, what the best way to do that would be and what type of immediate, person-to-person interactions are needed.
I think there are multiple angles, but discrete projects would be pursued.
NDP
Heather McPherson NDP Edmonton Strathcona, AB
Ms. Altstadt, you spoke about the appalling human rights record and how that is being used against the Azerbaijanis who are advocating for human rights. Perhaps you could touch on that as well in your answer on Canada's financial contribution.
Professor of History, University of Massachusetts Amherst, As an Individual
Like Ms. Wistrand, I wouldn't be able to assess the amount of money and where it would go, what's needed. I would suggest very careful oversight and accountability naturally, given the situation.
It would be very difficult to couple the kind of aid that we're talking about here for displaced people—technically, people who fled Azerbaijan into Armenia and are therefore considered refugees, and the formerly internally displaced population left in the eastern part of Azerbaijan, who formerly had lived in either Nagorno-Karabakh or the surrounding territories. It would be hard to couple that aid I think with some of the human rights issues, because the human rights issues really are a matter of observation of the justice system, of policing, of appeals for these people in terms of access to visitors and so on. I think that they're not really closely related.
The idea is that western governments should, and I'm advocating that they should, pay attention to both of these kinds of potential repressions by, in this case, the Azerbaijani government, but by governments in general.
NDP
Heather McPherson NDP Edmonton Strathcona, AB
I would just point out that our feminist international assistance policy does have pillars that talk about justice and some of the human rights issues. Then when we look at a feminist foreign policy, a feminist international assistance policy, I do think that there is some overlap on that and Canada can play a meaningful role.
I wonder if I could just very quickly ask—
Liberal
Liberal
The Chair Liberal Ali Ehsassi
We'll go to the second round with three minutes, for you, MP Epp.
The floor is yours.
December 4th, 2023 / 12:55 p.m.
Conservative
Dave Epp Conservative Chatham-Kent—Leamington, ON
Thank you, Mr. Chair.
Thank you to the witnesses.
On lasting peace, durable peace, I'm going to start with you, Ms. Wistrand. It seems that over the past 100 years whichever party has had the upper hand has obviously dominated the territory and then caused flows of migration. You outlined in your testimony certain steps, at least interim steps, to try to get to the point of discussing lasting peace.
I have a two-part question. When was the last time there was either stability or lasting peace?
I know there was stability perhaps in the Soviet time period, but was that enforced stability by a stronger third hand?
Was there a pre-1920s period of stability, and what was that based on, territory or peoples? Will a durable peace come about from a picking of a time...because the mass migrations forced IDPs from both sides of the conflicts?
I'm looking for a vision of lasting peace. What will be the basis of it: territory or people? By “people”, I mean “ethnicity”? I recognize that both of those are intertwined.
Deputy Director, Kennan Institute, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, As an Individual
Yes, that's a very good question and a very difficult question.
In terms of what I think would actually achieve a lasting peace, I'll give you something from my personal experience spending two years living in the country from 2006 to 2008, when I was doing research for my Ph.D. dissertation, spending time in school and literally sitting in history, civics and constitution classes. This is on the Azerbaijani side.
You have the problem now, as you have in any place in the world, where you have two populations that have learned to “other” the other. Without undoing that, which takes human-to-human contact, you're not going to achieve lasting peace. If you're going to have people coming back and living together, obviously first you have to have security rights guaranteed, so that nothing is going to happen. Second, you have to get people to want to trust one another again.
Yes, the first step will be delimiting the borders. Second is creating security, but third, you have to have programs in place like exchanges between young people, getting them to trust one another. I truly believe that's what you're going to have to do to achieve lasting peace.
Conservative
Dave Epp Conservative Chatham-Kent—Leamington, ON
I have a follow-up to that, then. Would that “learning to live together” as two ethnicities fall more within the present-day territorial distinction of Azerbaijan versus Armenia? I'm assuming there are fewer Azeris in Armenia, save the enclave of Nakhchivan. Is most of the work going to have to occur inside of present-day Azerbaijan, or will it be in both countries?
Deputy Director, Kennan Institute, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, As an Individual
Given that they have social media and the fact that young people in either country can be accessing and communicating with anyone anywhere, I think it's going to take place in both countries. I really do think it's a whole-of-society perspective.
Just to go back to your earlier question of when did they have a period when they had peace, I would defer to my colleague, Professor Altstadt, the historian. However, if you do look back, as she's underscored—and I've looked at maps going back 150 years, produced by German, British, American, all these different types of cartographers—if you look at the place names, the majority are Armenian, but there are parts where you do have standing Azerbaijani communities.
The two groups have historically lived together in the past, and they weren't warring. Therefore, when you had this delimitation in the 20th century of borders and the hardening of ethnic identities, I think that laid the preconditions for the problems we have.
I do think it is more person to person, but it's not just going to take place on the Azerbaijani side. It's going to be on the Armenian side as well.
Conservative
Dave Epp Conservative Chatham-Kent—Leamington, ON
Given more time, I would have asked Ms. Altstadt as well, but I can't.
Liberal
Liberal
Rob Oliphant Liberal Don Valley West, ON
Thank you, Mr. Chair.
I'd like to thank all of the witnesses. I need an hour with each of you.
Ms. Wistrand, you raised eight issues that I found very helpful. Every one of them would take an hour, so I want to focus on a couple of them.
You talked about the exchange of prisoners. Does Armenia have prisoners of war from Azerbaijan? Does Azerbaijan have prisoners of war? They, I understand, sometimes call them criminals because of previous offences. What is the state of the prisoners?
Deputy Director, Kennan Institute, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, As an Individual
It's a very good question. The most I know is by looking at Red Cross or other documents that come out.
My understanding is that both sides do have some prisoners. As to whether they call them criminals, I would say that more call them prisoners, but my understanding is that it's both sides.
Liberal
Rob Oliphant Liberal Don Valley West, ON
On the issues of return, some refugees, as Mr. Chong said, will want very much to return from Armenia to Nagorno-Karabakh. There are some 600,000 Azerbaijanis who feel that they want to return. In your sense, is this possible? Is there an ability for Azerbaijan to manage all of that complexity?
Deputy Director, Kennan Institute, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, As an Individual
It's very good question. I think it would be extremely difficult.
If you go back to the Soviet period—which, again, my colleague Professor Altstadt, the historian, would underscore as well—and if you look at the North Caucasus during the World War II period, the Soviets manipulated those borders and moved populations, populations that are still trying to come back and peacefully integrate.
You would have a similar situation with two populations claiming the same territory and literally sometimes the same home. As much as it would be wonderful if the two countries could work it out, it would be helpful to have a mediating group.
Liberal
Rob Oliphant Liberal Don Valley West, ON
When it comes to the mediator, you mentioned that nobody is working out right now—people are biased. Do you have any out-of-the-box thinking on a mediator, someone who is not in the EU, someone who does not have a large Armenian diaspora, someone completely out of this? Could it be Norway or...?
I'm just trying to think. Should we be trying to find someone who is an unusual player in this?
Deputy Director, Kennan Institute, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, As an Individual
Yes, that's a very good question. I was racking my brain for that as well. I was thinking, would Australia perhaps be...?
Again, from having been in Azerbaijan, the last time I was there I saw some Japanese development projects that were taking place. Could Japan somehow be positioned? I don't know. Thus far, so many countries have either lined up on one side or the other or, again, because of the percentages of the diaspora populations, it makes it very tricky for either side to have perceived neutrality.
Liberal
Rob Oliphant Liberal Don Valley West, ON
This is my last question, and anybody can answer it. Nakhchivan, should we be watching this? Someone talked about connectivity earlier. Is that connectivity at risk at all? Is there potential conflict there, or should we relax about that?