Dear members of Parliament, thank you for the invitation to appear before you today to discuss matters related to your ongoing study of security at the borders between Azerbaijan and Armenia.
In my opening statement, I will briefly outline some points that I believe are important. I would be happy to go into more detail about these points, as well as other points that are of interest to you, during the question-and-answer session that follows.
Since Azerbaijan's September 19 military offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh, which resulted in the de facto government of the breakaway region surrendering, Azerbaijan's and Armenia's leaders, President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan and Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan of Armenia, have been seriously discussing the conditions necessary to establish a durable peace between their two states.
Long-term peace is possible. However, it's premature to think that a comprehensive peace agreement can or should be developed at this time. A series of pre-negotiations or partial peace agreements that focus on specific security, humanitarian and other issues would lay the necessary groundwork for the two sides to reach the point of being able to develop a comprehensive peace agreement that could resonate both among the countries' elected officials and among everyday Azerbaijanis and Armenians, who have been taught to believe, over the last 30 years, that the “other” is their existential enemy.
Some of the security, humanitarian and other issues that need to be addressed in the preliminary agreements that are developed are the exchange of all Azerbaijani and Armenian prisoners; mutual recognition of all territorial boundaries between Azerbaijan and Armenia; support for Armenians who left Nagorno-Karabakh as refugees following the September 19 military offensive and who would like to integrate into Armenia; support for Azerbaijanis who became internally displaced persons, or IDPs, following the 1992-94 war and who would like to return to Nagorno-Karabakh; protections for Armenians who would like to remain in, or return to, Nagorno-Karabakh, i.e., ethnic, religious and linguistic minority rights; protection of Armenian cultural heritage sites in Nagorno-Karabakh; and shared official terminology for all administrative units in Nagorno-Karabakh.
Additionally, a mutually acceptable mediator is needed. Between 1992 and 2022, the OSCE Minsk Group, which was co-chaired by the United States, France and Russia, regularly met with its Azerbaijani and Armenian counterparts; however, the group's successes were limited. For example, the entity that succeeded in brokering the ceasefire between Azerbaijan and Armenia in November 2020 was not the OSCE Minsk Group, but rather Russia. Russia was the only country that subsequently sent peacekeeping troops to the region. Since 2022, the European Council, under the leadership of Charles Michel, has begun to negotiate between President Aliyev and Prime Minister Pashinyan.
Unfortunately, there is no one group, council or country that is best placed to mediate. The United States, France and Russia have large Armenian diaspora populations, which renders them potentially biased in the eyes of Azerbaijan. France's decision to increase its military support for Armenia in the wake of the September 19 military offensive would seem to justify Azerbaijan's concerns.
Armenia and Russia have historically had a strong relationship. This has led Azerbaijan to question the latter's ability to be an impartial arbiter. However, the Russian peacekeeping troops' failure to maintain the Lachin corridor between Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh, beginning in December of last year, combined with their failure to prevent the September 19 military offensive, has prompted Armenia to question Russia's interventions as well.
Armenia's and Turkey's lack of diplomatic relations, in the face of Azerbaijan's and Turkey's strong relationship, eliminates the possibility of a Turkish mediator. Georgia is home to both minority Azerbaijani and minority Armenian populations, and for 30 years, it has served as neutral ground for Azerbaijanis and Armenians who have wanted to bridge their differences. Georgia could negotiate between its neighbours, but its unresolved territorial disputes with Russia over Abkhazia and South Ossetia might influence its perspective.
Canada could play the mediator role. Canadian diplomats have the standing and skills to do so. However, like the United States, France and Russia, Canada has a sizable Armenian diaspora population. Canada might be better placed to contribute humanitarian aid and development support to Armenian refugees and Azerbaijani IDPs in both Armenia and Azerbaijan.
The sooner countries are perceived to cease favouring one side over the other in this conflict, the sooner Azerbaijan and Armenia will be ready to develop a comprehensive peace agreement that can hold.
Thank you.