Foreign Affairs Committee on Sept. 25th, 2025

[The Chair, Liberal, Ahmed Hussen]

Thank you very much.

We will turn next to MP Bill Blair.

[Bill Blair, Liberal, Scarborough Southwest, ON]

Thank you very much, Mr. Chair.

I will follow up, briefly, on Mr. Chong's comments.

I'm aware that the NATO response will be determined by NATO command and by the SACEUR, based on our capabilities. I'm pretty confident, personally, that this conversation is taking place right now. Even though the media is very anxious for it, I would expect and anticipate that there might be a reluctance to start making the declaration of red lines for NATO. I think it will be a thoughtful and nuanced response, but I have great confidence in that command and the SACEUR to respond. I think it is important that we be patient and let them work it out, because clearly the Russians are probing.

There is something else, though, that has changed fairly significantly in the past two weeks. We've seen, from the United States and the President of the United States, first of all, a declaration that he was considering imposing tariffs on those countries that were purchasing Russian energy. That has a very significant impact on their capacity to continue to build up their military. The threat of those tariffs can also have some implications for Canada. We're also working in other trade relationships with some of those very countries. I think that if you have any kind of assessment on what the impact of that might be, it would be interesting to us.

Also, in his speech at UNGA, the President of the United States indicated, just this week, a very significant change in their initial posture. He has now declared that he supports the restoration of Ukraine's original territorial integrity, and the restoration of all territories that have been seized and occupied by Russia. That's a very significant change. I think it is something for NATO to contemplate.

I wondered if our foreign affairs minister and our government have determined what the appropriate response would be to that change in posture that is being articulated by the President.

[Eric Laporte]

Thank you for the question.

You are correct in highlighting that the President of the United States has gone out publicly with a very significant change.

We certainly will continue to work very closely with the U.S. in terms of trying to arrive at a peaceful solution in Ukraine. We have been working with them very closely on that, although we have seen the response from Russia, even following President Putin's meeting with President Trump in Alaska, has been escalation upon escalation. Clearly, the Russians are not seemingly ready to engage in a meaningful conversation.

There is certainly a conversation amongst allies—the G7—on how we can increase pressure on Russia. We recognize that sanctions have been in place in coordination with other partners. They are having an impact on the Russian economy. Russia is starting to show some strains. Inflation is high. It's difficult for it to purchase...and it has to rely on other partners for a number of items.

We recognize that oil and gas continue to be an important source of revenue for the Russian economy. That is why we are looking at other options, under our G7 presidency, to reduce Russia's oil revenues. In the long term, we know that the sanctions are causing a persistent diversion of resources for Russia. It is damaging its growth potential.

[Ty Curran]

Perhaps, Mr. Chair, I'll add that, when we look at the basket of options for a response in these situations, our support for Ukraine is part of that equation. We certainly welcome any partners who are increasing that support, and I do think the military assistance that Canada has provided is part of the response that we are able to provide in these situations.

[Bill Blair, Liberal, Scarborough Southwest, ON]

Thank you very much for that.

I appreciate that there has been a very significant change in posture from the United States, and it will take some time.

This is the last thing I wanted to ask. NATO has long declared that it will defend every square foot of NATO territory. In that defence, I think there has to be an acknowledgement that, for example, if a jet flew over Estonia for some period of time, NATO's ability to respond...because the NATO response jets would not all be stationed at the Estonian border but rather further back from that. It would take extra time to detect the threat and then to respond. If the Russians only came in for 12 minutes and then turned around and fled, NATO may not necessarily do that. However, there are a number of ways—and I think they have been declared—in which we would respond.

On that capability, I think it would be very helpful if you were able to provide us with some insight as to how long it would take to respond. By the way, I think this is somewhat related to the withdrawal from the Ottawa convention, because our NATO allies, particularly on that eastern border with Russia, have become very concerned about slowing down any potential incursion.

I think the time of response is relevant, and perhaps you could provide us with some insight on what the limitations of that might be.

[Ty Curran]

Thank you for the question.

Certainly, NATO response times would be classified. That is potentially part of the information the Russians are seeking to determine. I guess the unclassed answer in this space would be that NATO maintains a robust capability to respond.

To the previous questions today about how that response should happen, I think that's something that is maintained by commanders, but the ability to respond remains and is being augmented in response to these incursions.

[The Chair, Liberal, Ahmed Hussen]

Thank you very much.

That brings us to the conclusion of the fourth round of questioning.

If members have additional questions, now is the opportunity to ask them.

Monsieur Lemire, go ahead. You can ask one or two questions.

[Sébastien Lemire, Bloc, Abitibi—Témiscamingue, QC]

Thank you.

Mr. Curran, do you have any information on Russia's capabilities in terms of drones and fighter jets, particularly in winter conditions? Does Russia have more advanced capabilities in this area than Canada? Does Russia have technology adapted to northern conditions? You said earlier that we're developing this type of technology. What about Russia?

[Ty Curran]

Good question.

Clearly, Russia has developed its drone capabilities during the war in Ukraine. For this reason, we're working with Ukraine to learn from its experiences and increase the response capabilities of the Canadian Armed Forces. We're also encouraging our industry to work with Ukrainian manufacturers to develop its capabilities. We can all benefit from this.

[Sébastien Lemire, Bloc, Abitibi—Témiscamingue, QC]

What about the northern aspect? Of course, Ukraine has winters, but they're less harsh than ours. Do you have any data on the winter aspect in particular?

[Ty Curran]

We're also working with our allies in the Arctic. This is an opportunity for Canadian industry, but also for the industry of our allies. This isn't just a climate issue, by the way. There are also electronic countermeasures and hunting, for example. We're trying to learn from these different aspects in order to develop our capabilities.

[Sébastien Lemire, Bloc, Abitibi—Témiscamingue, QC]

The invasions discussed today have received extensive media coverage in Europe and America. What about Russia? How has the Russian media described these incidents? Has there been any media coverage, or has the topic been avoided? Has the Russian government engaged in any form of propaganda on this matter?

[Eric Laporte]

In Russia, the war in Ukraine isn't a war, but a special military operation. We know that few media outlets report on developments in this area. When it comes to the specific incidents reported in recent weeks, I must admit that I don't know how the Russian press is covering them at the moment. I wouldn't be surprised to find little coverage.

[Sébastien Lemire, Bloc, Abitibi—Témiscamingue, QC]

Thank you.

Thank you, Mr. Chair

[The Chair, Liberal, Ahmed Hussen]

Thank you very much.

To the officials, thank you for your testimony and for appearing for this study.

Is it the will of the committee to adjourn the meeting?

[Some hon. members]

Agreed.

[The Chair, Liberal, Ahmed Hussen]

Thank you. The meeting is adjourned.