Thank you, Mr. Chair, Vice-Chairs and members of the committee. Good afternoon. Thank you for the invitation.
I'm Beth Burke, the CEO of the Canadian American Business Council. We are the only bilateral, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to the Canada-U.S. relationship, representing close to 100 companies across sectors on both sides of the border.
Since 1987, we've advocated for free and fair trade between our two countries. Our members operate every day across what has long been one of the most integrated economic relationships in the world. They employ Canadians and Americans. They build products, sometimes even together. They share supply chains. They represent an integrated and successful North America.
That bilateral perspective is what I hope to offer here today. We sit at the table with American and Canadian companies alike—companies that bolster our economic resilience—and I want to share what I'm hearing from both.
Let me be direct about where we are.
Things are not where any of us want them to be. Talks are suspended, and 50% tariffs are in place on a broad range of Canadian goods. Canada has responded with tariffs on U.S. goods accordingly. However, I want to be clear: While we are in a difficult moment, this relationship is not broken.
Underneath the uncertainty and turbulence in this moment is an economic relationship that remains extraordinarily deep and difficult to replicate, one built on decades of integration and collaboration. Nearly two-thirds of our bilateral goods trade is intermediary inputs—components and materials that cross our border several times before they become a finished product. A tariff on either side raises costs for manufacturers, consumers and workers on both sides. Roughly 1.5 million American jobs and 2.4 million Canadian jobs are directly linked to this relationship.
This year, the CABC commissioned Oxford Economics to help move this conversation beyond the rhetoric with more evidence and an independent assessment of the USMCA, or CUSMA, and potential trade outcomes.
Here are the numbers at a glance: A successful renegotiation would add $253 billion Canadian to the Canadian GDP over the next decade; a breakdown would cost $271 billion. For a Canadian household, the difference between these two paths is about $846 a year. For the Canadian workforce, the difference is an additional 98,000 jobs or a loss of over 100,000 jobs.
Americans have real skin in this game too, and that is the message we, without a doubt, carry in Washington. Canada is the number one export customer for more than 30 U.S. states, including Michigan, Indiana, Texas and Arizona. Three in four Americans say that the USMCA-CUSMA is good for the U.S. economy, and more than eight in 10 say that trade with Canada strengthens U.S. national security.
One thing that can get lost in these numbers is that when you impose costs at the border, they rarely stop there. They trickle into workforces, communities and the individual homes of everyday people. However, here's what gives me hope: Business relationships aren't built on a political moment. Companies have deep, long-standing ties with suppliers and customers across the border, and those relationships are holding. We are relying on them, but they cannot carry the load forever.
Before I conclude today, I would offer three take-aways to this committee.
First, I hope both sides can get back to the table. Both governments need to return to negotiations with the goal of reaching a deal that restores predictability for both economies. Every day without a deal adds new hurdles for businesses and impacts investment decisions in ways that are difficult to reverse.
Second, look beyond tariffs. As we've long advocated, regulatory alignment and mutual recognition deliver real savings, and governments on both sides are listening. While tariffs have largely been the focus of the conversation, there remain opportunities outside those negotiations to bolster our economies together.
Third and finally, use the business community. CABC stands ready to convene, to share data and to make the case for this relationship to the American lawmakers, governors and businesses that have a stake in getting it right.
Free and fair trade, CUSMA and integration aren't favours one country does for the other. These are frameworks that benefit workers, businesses and consumers in both countries. The question isn't whether Canadians and Americans will keep doing business together. We will. The question is whether it will be stable and profitable or costly and turbulent. When we work together, we compete better, create more jobs and keep our people safe together.
Thank you. I look forward to your questions.