Evidence of meeting #41 for Government Operations and Estimates in the 40th Parliament, 3rd session. (The original version is on Parliament’s site, as are the minutes.) The winning word was departments.
A recording is available from Parliament.
Bloc
Diane Bourgeois Bloc Terrebonne—Blainville, QC
You have no idea.
Do we know if the cut will have an impact on staff or security inside the prisons?
Bloc
Diane Bourgeois Bloc Terrebonne—Blainville, QC
Anything is possible.
So, that means that Canadians and Quebeckers who live near correctional facilities have no way of knowing if there will be adequate security at those facilities because the budget granted by the department will be cut. They cannot know if they will be safe.
That's great, Mr. Chair! One more thing to show that we don't have the answers and can't know exactly what will happen.
How much time do I have left, Mr. Chair?
Bloc
Diane Bourgeois Bloc Terrebonne—Blainville, QC
Mr. Page, as for the Infrastructure Stimulus Fund, I suppose you don't have any more answers to our questions, do you? With the exception of your survey, you have no more answers to all the questions you were asked previously about whether the budgets were used properly, whether there would be budgetary surpluses, do you? Can you answer that question?
Sahir Khan Assistant Parliamentary Budget Officer, Expenditure and Revenue Analysis, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer, Library of Parliament
We still haven't received the data from September 30. There is a delay.
Bloc
Diane Bourgeois Bloc Terrebonne—Blainville, QC
Normally, you should have received it fairly quickly, right?
Assistant Parliamentary Budget Officer, Expenditure and Revenue Analysis, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer, Library of Parliament
It usually takes 90 days, but in the case of the report we published this morning, it was five months. There is a delay.
However, a member had requested some information that was a little more specific about projects that won't be completed before December 31. He wanted information about the data from September 30, but we haven't received all the details. So, we cannot complete our analysis.
Bloc
Diane Bourgeois Bloc Terrebonne—Blainville, QC
The amount was $10 billion, if I understood correctly.
Assistant Parliamentary Budget Officer, Expenditure and Revenue Analysis, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer, Library of Parliament
Yes, the total amount with contributions from all levels of government, was $10 billion. That's almost $4 billion from [Editor's Note: inaudible].
Bloc
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Library of Parliament
I would add that we received information for the quarter ending in June and that we have updated our analysis of the program for that period.
Bloc
Diane Bourgeois Bloc Terrebonne—Blainville, QC
Because we can't assess the number of projects that will not be completed by March 31, 2011, we automatically cannot estimate how much will be left in surplus in the infrastructure fund. Is that right?
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Library of Parliament
Yes, we have updated our analysis and we now have a reference scenario with a possible reduction. We are talking about projects that will not be completed by the time the program ends on March 31, 2011. We are talking about 940 projects, or 24%.
As for the numbers for the potentially unused federal contribution, we are talking about $303 million, or 8%.
Liberal
Conservative
Jacques Gourde Conservative Lotbinière—Chutes-de-la-Chaudière, QC
Thank you very much, Mr. Chair.
And thank you to the witnesses for being here.
Mr. Page, the home renovation tax credit ended on December 31, 2009. This initiative, which was part of phase one of the economic action plan, was very popular. Have you been able to determine whether all the money allotted for this tax credit was used and to what extent the program helped create jobs?
In my constituency, where there are a lot of carpenters and manufacturers of doors, windows and kitchen cabinets, this initiative was extremely popular. Last year was a record year for these people. They asked that an analysis be done on the impact of the initiative on the economy, and even on the underground economy. It seems that it would have actually helped stymie the underground economy because everyone asked for a receipt so they could claim their tax credit.
Are you able to determine how much the initiative cost the government, on the one hand, and how much it yielded in taxes from the workers and businesses, on the other? The year is over now. It would be really interesting to know what the situation is.
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Library of Parliament
No, we have not made that analysis yet. We have not been requested to do that analysis, but we would be interested in doing it.
Conservative
Jacques Gourde Conservative Lotbinière—Chutes-de-la-Chaudière, QC
Can the committee ask you to do that analysis? Do you know how much time it could take? Is it a complicated venture for you, or is it something that interests you?
Mostafa Askari Assistant Parliamentary Budget Officer, Economic and Fiscal Analysis, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer, Library of Parliament
It's a complex project. We have to look at the possibility of doing it. We need the data required to do it. If the committee requires that we do it, we could.
Conservative
Jacques Gourde Conservative Lotbinière—Chutes-de-la-Chaudière, QC
Thank you. This initiative cost the government a certain amount, but what needs to be taken into consideration is how much it brought back to the economy. People got back 15% on the first $10,000 invested in a renovation, but they spent much more than $10,000 on renovations, more like $15,000, $20,000, and so on. Could we calculate the impact of the money Canadians injected into the economy, not necessarily government money, and determine to what extent it was able to stimulate the economy in terms of jobs? I think it was one of the most important initiatives of the economic action plan. It is undervalued. I think it would really be worth it to take the study further and see how much of an effect it had on the Canadian economy.
Assistant Parliamentary Budget Officer, Economic and Fiscal Analysis, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer, Library of Parliament
It is possible to estimate what was injected into the economy, but it can be very difficult to estimate the impact on jobs. In fact, we would have to look at a scenario where the credit would not be involved, but this isn't possible. It's impossible to observe that.
Conservative
Jacques Gourde Conservative Lotbinière—Chutes-de-la-Chaudière, QC
Thank you very much. I give the floor to my colleague.
Liberal
The Chair Liberal John McKay
For a point of clarification—and I'll stop the clock there—it's an interesting discussion, Mr. Gourde. You can ask the Parliamentary Budget Officer directly—and you could ask as a member of Parliament—to undertake that study or you could prepare a motion whereby the committee asks the Parliamentary Budget Officer to undertake that study.
Maybe over the course of the balance of the meeting you could think about which way you would prefer to proceed, because you do raise a really interesting question.
Monsieur Calandra, for a little under four minutes.
Conservative
Paul Calandra Conservative Oak Ridges—Markham, ON
Okay. Thank you.
You'd mentioned in your remarks that you had done a survey. Was that a voluntary survey?