Thank you, Chair. It's a pleasure to be back at the government operations committee.
Minister Ali, like many Canadians, I am very interested in seeing next week's budget. I'm particularly concerned that your government has abandoned your fiscal anchors. I will remind you that in 2024, in the fall economic statement, these anchors were (a) to maintain a declining debt-to-GDP ratio and (b) to uphold Canada's AAA credit rating. In the last few weeks, however, these anchors have seemingly disappeared.
In his September 25 report, the PBO stated, “Due to persistent budgetary deficits of over 1 per cent of GDP, the federal debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to increase from 41.7 per cent in 2024-25, rising above 43 per cent over the medium term” and that it is “no longer projected to be on a declining path”.
On our AAA credit rating, a Financial Post article from yesterday asks a clear question: “Does Canada still deserve its AAA...rating?”
Minister, I would argue that, as the PBO has stated, our debt-to-GDP ratio will be rising, and that the deficit will rise to a minimum of $68.5 billion. That is not a small number. That is without adding recent spending commitments from your government. It is valid to wonder, when your budget is tabled on Tuesday, if the reaction from the markets will be that Canada still deserves its AAA credit rating. I'm not convinced.
The Prime Minister refers to himself as a financial budget expert. However, based on reports from the PBO and from other economists, Canadians are having trouble seeing this.
Therefore, Minister, on Tuesday, when your government presents its budget, are you purposely wanting it to fail so that an election will be called before Canadians feel the true economic effects of your government?