Mr. Chair, Madam Vice‑Chair and members of the committee, thank you for inviting me to appear before you today.
I'm very pleased to be here to discuss the spring economic update and the 2026‑27 main estimates in my new role as Parliamentary Budget Officer, an independent officer of Parliament.
First, I cannot say enough how impressed I have been with the very warm welcome that I have received from the dedicated and highly professional team at the parliamentary budget office. I am particularly pleased to be able to rely on the expertise of Jason Jacques, director general of economic and fiscal analysis. We had the pleasure of working together previously at the Privy Council Office and at the Treasury Board Secretariat, and I am very glad indeed to have the opportunity to do so again.
I'm also grateful to be working alongside Mark Mahabir, director general, costing and budgetary analysis, and general counsel, as well as the directors who led our analysis of the spring economic update and the main estimates. As you know, the office's mandate is to provide independent, non-partisan analysis to support Parliament in its review of public spending and the country's financial situation. I am fully committed to delivering on this mandate with rigour, transparency and objectivity.
I also commit to bring PBO attention to how government proposals are executed as they flow through to main and supplementary estimates and into public accounts. This is core to parliamentary business and to the practical question of what return Canadians get on their tax dollars.
I was appointed last Wednesday and began work at PBO that morning. From day one, my focus has been on getting Parliament the reports that have been delayed by the vacancy of the PBO position and getting ready to provide analysis on the spring update.
Of note, PBO will publish a series of assessments early next week that will assess the spring update in respect of budget 2025, which was tabled last November. We intend to keep systematic and ongoing watch going forward on key budgetary issues. These include the economic and fiscal track. How is the economy developing? What does that mean for revenues and fiscal choices of the government?
We will watch fiscal anchors and fiscal sustainability very closely. Can we afford the government's plans now and through time? What trade-offs are involved? Have we reserved enough buffer space to deal with recessions, pandemics or wars?
We will watch progress on major stated government priorities. What horizontal, general objectives has the government used to seek funds from Parliament? Who is responsible for results if not a specific minister?
We will watch departmental spending and other initiatives. What funds are specific ministers seeking from Parliament year over year? What does that tangibly mean for Canadians?
I will speak briefly to the spring update.
First, on a positive note, it is worth emphasizing that the government's economic and budgetary forecasts have remained solid overall, despite ongoing trade frictions and new oil and gas shocks.
Second and importantly, fiscal sustainability and the transparency and trajectory of overall spending remain a priority concern for the parliamentary budget office. While the government has met its first fiscal anchor of achieving a declining deficit-to-GDP track in the spring update, it has yet to define its second fiscal anchor beyond a general commitment to balance operating spending with revenues.
Let me put our first assessments in concrete terms. Based on the spring update, PBO estimates that federal debt per Canadian will rise from $33,592 this year to $38,295 five years from now. Per the spring update, federal debt charges per Canadian per year, the interest cost of that debt, will rise from $1,409 to $1,901.
Separate from the sustainability question, I'll turn to the government priorities. In its own update, it speaks to key themes raised in November 2025 in the budget, productivity, housing, defence and major projects. The spring update provides some metrics on progress but few critical paths, mentions of risks or specific objectives. The update instead introduced a range of new and rather undefined priorities, strategies and general objectives that, similarly, would benefit from greater accountability, details on governance and other aspects of planning that would inform Parliament as to what results the government is targeting for that spending. The Canada Strong fund is a leading example from that list.
Over the next few days, I will be reaching out to parliamentarians, including the chairs of designated committees, to gather their views on how the office can best continue to support their work—both in terms of what is already working well and areas that could be improved—to ensure greater government accountability.
Thank you again for the opportunity to appear today. I look forward to your questions.