Evidence of meeting #25 for Procedure and House Affairs in the 43rd Parliament, 2nd Session. (The original version is on Parliament’s site, as are the minutes.) The winning word was prorogation.

A recording is available from Parliament.

On the agenda

MPs speaking

Also speaking

Clerk of the Committee  Mr. Justin Vaive
Andre Barnes  Committee Researcher

12:40 p.m.

Liberal

Ryan Turnbull Liberal Whitby, ON

Sure.

I've done quite a few polls. I actually did research for a living, running a consulting company for many years, so I'm really well versed in polling and research methodology.

I think you had a poll on Twitter that I saw. It's great that you put that out there. I believe in having that constant feedback from constituents. That's a part of participatory democracy that I am really fond of.

Mrs. Vecchio, did you ask about the other witnesses in your motion? What was the confidence interval? What was the sample size? Was there a sample bias in that poll? I would suggest that there was certainly a bias given the fact that you didn't distribute it across the country.

It absolutely could not be said to necessarily reflect—

12:40 p.m.

Conservative

Karen Vecchio Conservative Elgin—Middlesex—London, ON

I have a point of order, Madam Chair.

12:40 p.m.

Liberal

The Chair Liberal Ruby Sahota

Yes, Mrs. Vecchio.

12:40 p.m.

Conservative

Karen Vecchio Conservative Elgin—Middlesex—London, ON

Ryan is saying that this is not worthy. Why are we speaking about something if it wasn't done properly?

12:40 p.m.

Liberal

The Chair Liberal Ruby Sahota

I think you brought it up in debate, Mrs. Vecchio. I'm a little confused now.

It was brought up today in the series of points that were made. Honestly, I don't know if I can rule it out of order at this point.

Carry on, Mr. Turnbull.

12:40 p.m.

Liberal

Ryan Turnbull Liberal Whitby, ON

I guess it wasn't necessarily tested or randomized. There was a bias in the sample, so even if you combined.... I understand that the validity of the multiple results you may have gotten from social media could easily be called into question, based on a very flawed research methodology.

Is that correct, Mrs. Vecchio?

12:40 p.m.

Liberal

The Chair Liberal Ruby Sahota

Are we using the Simms protocol here? Is that what is about to occur?

I recognize that we do have Mr. Simms amongst us, but that's really up to you, Mr. Turnbull. Was that a rhetorical question or was that something you would—

12:45 p.m.

Liberal

Ryan Turnbull Liberal Whitby, ON

I don't know what the Simms protocol is. With no disrespect to my colleague Mr. Simms, who I understand has a lot of experience, I'm just a new MP and I don't know the Simms protocol.

Could you maybe clarify that?

12:45 p.m.

Liberal

The Chair Liberal Ruby Sahota

Absolutely.

It came up yesterday when I don't remember which member had chosen to interject on the Simms protocol. I'm not sure if it was Mr. Nater or somebody else.

No, it was Mr. Blaikie who had interjected on using the Simms protocol.

Scott Simms, we were thinking of you yesterday.

The clarification to that is you wouldn't necessarily be ceding the floor to another member to make comments, but they would be able to make short interjectory remarks and you would then continue to have your speaking spot. In that time, they would not be able to move motions or anything like that but just perhaps carry the conversation in a direction that could come to some kind of compromise or move the conversation in a good direction.

Really, it's a good-faith tool to use to help in this type of debate when we're logjammed. However, that is to the discretion of the member who has the floor, whether they would allow somebody to have that time to interject comment to their remarks, and then you would have the floor back.

12:45 p.m.

Liberal

Ryan Turnbull Liberal Whitby, ON

In honour of Mr. Simms who is here, I think this is a great show of faith to have some informal discussion.

Ms. Vecchio, if you want to speak to the rigorous methodology of your polling, I would invite that for sure.

12:45 p.m.

Conservative

Karen Vecchio Conservative Elgin—Middlesex—London, ON

Absolutely, and Ryan, I really do appreciate this.

The one poll had gone out that was on Twitter. Because of the time frame that I was not aware of, we made sure that all polls closed at the same time. I did not know that Twitter was closing a couple of days earlier than the Facebook polls. We had put them both out at the same time and wanted to make sure that they were in both official languages, because that's also very important. Then, as soon as the Twitter polls closed, we closed all other polling and combined the results.

Thank you very much. I can say, Ryan, I do not have the methodology that you have, but if we were referring to this, we could look at these polls, and if we were looking at the Twitter poll, we could say it's 60% for. If we're looking at the Facebook polls that actually had the same type of base but different demographics, we'd be looking at the exact opposite results of 61%, I believe, in favour. Actually, it was even higher than that, but we know that when we combined the things....

I will be the first one to attest that the methodology of this is not great, but that said, it was a great opportunity in terms of where the public was on this. As you said, you are using the statistics one way. I can use the statistics the exact opposite way. Regardless of what we are looking at, if we combine the polls, out of the over 12,000 people responding, we have had over 6,000 Canadians, or actually it would be 7,000 people, who wanted him to come.

I think we can interpret either way, but yes, the methodology is not perfect. The next time, I'll work on this. We asked specifically about the Prime Minister. The reason for that was, rather than putting all of the others—all the other witnesses have been academics and scholar witnesses—the best person to hear from on the reason for prorogation would be the Prime Minister, since it was provoked by him and then brought forward by him to the Governor General. He is the only person who has that right.

Using the words of that, I believe it was you who asked the other day, have we done a poll on this? Someone had asked about that. We haven't done a poll, so thank you for giving me the ideas on how to do so, but next time, I will make sure I use your methodology.

Thank you.

12:45 p.m.

Liberal

Ryan Turnbull Liberal Whitby, ON

Madam Chair, I appreciate that clarification.

Ms. Vecchio, I think it's great that you're making attempts to do that. I definitely feel strongly and passionately about having an open government with lots and lots of participation from the public.

Maybe one concern I would still have with your methodology is just that we all know the Facebook following is definitely a biased sample, because those folks have chosen to follow you in particular, so they might be more conservative minded, they might be slightly biased or they might be really biased, whereas Twitter is sort of out there. I would say it's a little more open, a little less corralled in terms of who specifically the demographic is that ends up seeing it. Combining those results and what you presented at the beginning, it seemed to me to take something that was quite biased and combine it with something that was maybe less biased in terms of who saw it.

How much weight can we put into those results? From my perspective, and from a rigorous scientific research perspective, I would say probably not a lot. That would be my perspective.

Would you agree with that? I'm using the Simms protocol, now that I'm accustomed to it.

12:50 p.m.

Conservative

Karen Vecchio Conservative Elgin—Middlesex—London, ON

Ryan, I—

12:50 p.m.

Conservative

John Nater Conservative Perth—Wellington, ON

I have a point of order on the Simms protocol.

Perhaps I could address that, Mr. Turnbull.

12:50 p.m.

Liberal

The Chair Liberal Ruby Sahota

Yes, okay, Mr. Nater.

12:50 p.m.

Liberal

Ryan Turnbull Liberal Whitby, ON

I was asking Mrs. Vecchio a question on it.

12:50 p.m.

Conservative

John Nater Conservative Perth—Wellington, ON

Yes, I'll be very brief, if it's all right. I'll just take a few seconds.

12:50 p.m.

Liberal

The Chair Liberal Ruby Sahota

Is that okay with you, Mr. Turnbull?

12:50 p.m.

Liberal

Ryan Turnbull Liberal Whitby, ON

Sure.

12:50 p.m.

Conservative

John Nater Conservative Perth—Wellington, ON

If we're talking about methodologies—and it's been a while since I've been actively involved in quantitative research—I would suggest that if we want to take a poll that really reflects the views of this committee, we put this motion to a vote right now. We take a poll right now of the committee members and we can deal with this motion and move on to some of the motions from Mr. Blaikie and Monsieur Therrien. It's just a suggestion there.

12:50 p.m.

Liberal

Ryan Turnbull Liberal Whitby, ON

Thank you for that. I appreciate that.

12:50 p.m.

Liberal

The Chair Liberal Ruby Sahota

Thank you for the suggestion.

12:50 p.m.

Liberal

Ryan Turnbull Liberal Whitby, ON

Certainly, that doesn't necessarily reflect the views of the general public, though, which I think was the point of Ms. Vecchio attempting to do a poll to engage members of the public in key decisions that are being made by this committee. I think it's a good point, but I'm sure we'll get to a vote eventually, I still have quite a few other arguments to make, though, and I'm quite prepared.... As I said, I had a good sleep last night.

I would start by saying that I want to make some remarks that relate to some key—I would say important—testimony that was made. We heard from quite a number of academics in our study so far, in particular, one I took a shine to. Her name was Dr. Lori Turnbull. You'll notice we have the same last name, but it's not because she's a member of my clan that I refer to her. I just really think that some of the points that she made really struck me as important, so I have a few things to say about that.

First, you'll remember that Dr. Lori Turnbull was in agreement that any time a government prorogues, there will be different perspectives on it, with differing speculation about the motives. This is a pretty obvious point to make, but I think it's also an important reminder. She stated, “Just because there is a narrative that is political doesn't mean there's not one that can exist at the same time that is more about policy planning.” She adds that these are “not mutually exclusive.” I think the distinction is important here. It's between policy planning and the political narrative, and these are two different things.

I really want to go in depth about the policy planning process and I think that really speaks to a narrative that I think much more closely approximates the truth of why the government prorogued. Despite the difference of opinion on motive and speculation about motive, our federal government was, as I mentioned, the first to ever table a rationale or a report to document its reasons for proroguing. Dr. Turnbull also agreed that the report does indeed provide a rationale for proroguing. Think about this logically: We said we would provide a rationale, and we did. She said, “The narrative in the report is quite consistent with that of the fiscal update that we saw in November and the fiscal snapshot we saw in July.” There's that word “consistent” popping up again, and we heard that multiple times before when I asked witnesses about why there would be such consistency in this process.

To me, it's logical that a government that's re-evaluating its priorities doesn't, and, because of a contextual shift as big and massive as a global pandemic, wouldn't abandon its values and its agenda entirely. You wouldn't expect a new Speech from the Throne to be entirely different. It would have some consistency, and we heard that from several witnesses when I asked them. They said, “Okay, I guess that would make sense.” That's in addition to the fact that Ms. Turnbull doesn't believe the Prime Minister needs to have good reasons; but, nevertheless, he did have a good reason, as we told Canadians over and over.

Going back, however, the narrative given for prorogation is consistent with what occurred after prorogation. As you'll recall, we heard from Allen Sutherland, from the Privy Council Office, who said we should have seen, “every government department engaged with chipping in ideas as to the sorts of thematics or signature items that might help give life to the Speech from the Throne.”

It went on to say that would have kicked in late in August or early in September, and then you would have seen a lot of iterations between the PMO and the Privy Council Office.

I want to just add a little bit from my perspective just to actually substantiate this claim that was made that there was an extensive consultation process done. This goes to the argument that really undermines, I think, the purpose of the motion before us. This is all related back to the motion. The motion assumes a theory or a narrative that is good for the opposition parties to be stimulating and amplifying because that message will have a negative effect on the position of the government and its ability to do its important work. I want to substantiate this claim that I think is substantiated by the extensive consultation work that went on during the time that Parliament was prorogued. I'll give you just a few examples of this locally. I'm not saying that this happened in every single riding across the country, because there were some differences, and we know this and I'm learning, as a new MP, that members of Parliament.... Ms. Vecchio put a poll.... I didn't put a poll on my Twitter account or my Facebook account, but during prorogation, I was quite excited to re-evaluate where we were at as a country, and in my riding I checked in with many of my constituents.

We did an extensive survey in the riding. We collected ideas and we got over 100 responses to a digital survey. We did a mail-out, a householder survey, as well, from which we got back quite a few responses. We did consultations with our seniors council and consultations with our youth council. Nationally we know that Minister Fortier had—I can't remember the exact number that she said—a very large number of consultations within our caucuses. I can't remember how many, but I know I participated in at least 12 of those consultations. These were really designed to identify what was on the minds of Canadians, what they had been experiencing, how businesses were affected, how families were affected by the pandemic, and sort of where we should go from where we were at that time.

I would say those extensive consultations provide a meaningful example that substantiates the reason we prorogued. This has been very consistent, and I believe it is important for opposition members to realize that this story is consistent. There's no inconsistency here. We've heard several witnesses call into question the timing of prorogation. Well, I would say to you that the timing makes perfect sense. It makes perfect sense because it basically happened within the first and the second wave. To me, it was a natural time to reflect on where we were at as a country and to reassess what was most important to our constituents, our communities and the country as a whole.

We also hosted a town hall session on Facebook Live to get thoughts and ideas to go into the throne speech. We launched a microsite on our website and got submissions from constituents on that. We received over 100 paper submissions, and then we received more than 400 submissions through the online microsite. Again there was lots of engagement there, and that was just in my riding. I can't speak for Mr. Arseneault or Mr. Lauzon or Mr. Blaikie or anybody else, but I'm sure we all reached out to our constituents at that time.

I understand consultation also went on between the Prime Minister and opposition leaders as well. He met with them. I think there is some documentation of that. I don't have that in front of me so I can't substantiate that.

I think some of the folks who may have participated in that may even be in the meeting today.

If the Prime Minister, like we maintain, has prorogued Parliament to reassess, to reset the table, reset the agenda, then isn't this consistent with hosting all of these consultations? I think Mr. Blaikie at one point, in some of the other questioning of witnesses, suggested in a way that we were taking a break and that we weren't working. It's preposterous to me to imply that MPs were not working during that time that we were prorogued. We know we only missed one day of House sitting time. By no means were members of Parliament laying on beaches and sitting on their hands. I think people were participating in that extensive consultation process.

1 p.m.

NDP

Daniel Blaikie NDP Elmwood—Transcona, MB

Madam Chair, in the spirit of the Simms protocol, if Mr. Turnbull would like, I would be happy to clarify those remarks.

1 p.m.

Liberal

The Chair Liberal Ruby Sahota

Mr. Turnbull.