Human Resources Committee on June 13th, 2006

[Bonnie Brown, Liberal, Oakville, ON]

I see that immigration is remaining constant and how the top line has to follow the line that indicates the deaths of the people already here and the lower births.

But what I don't understand is.... I guess it would be too much guesswork to project another peak, such as the one observed around 1991.

[Alain Bélanger]

Yes, of course, there will be fluctuations from year to year, but this is a long-term population projection, and we make assumptions on long-term trends. We cannot project the cycle that will happen.

However, in the last 15 years, the number of immigrants that Canada received has been quite stable, averaging about 225,000 a year, but there are fluctuations. Some years we have had nearly 260,000 and other years we have had a bit less than 200,000. So there can be fluctuations from year to year, but over the long range, this is what the median scenario of the population projections uses as an assumption.

[Bonnie Brown, Liberal, Oakville, ON]

Thank you.

You tell us a lot about seasonal workers and older workers. The social policy issue I'm concerned about is the school-to-work transition.

Whether we're talking about people who can't seem to complete high school or people who have just some community college training, etc., landing them in appropriate jobs and making them part of the productive work force is, it seems to me, a big challenge for us. What do your statistics show you about that group?

[François Nault]

First of all, I think last November we released data that showed the dropout rate from high school has been dropping in Canada. We often hear stories about dropouts, but when you look at the statistics, the dropout rates have been declining in the last 10 years. On that front, I think the school systems are doing pretty well; they are lowering the dropout rates.

Also there's a clear relationship, even at that age, between your level of education and your integration into the labour market. We have another survey that's called the national graduates survey, and it shows that two years after graduation, college and university kids are doing very well in the labour market.

We also have another survey that follows a cohort of students who were 15 in 2000. We're looking at them every two years. Last week we released the data for the interview when they were 19; there are differences in the way students integrate into the labour market, depending on their education and experience. We're also trying to look at all the other factors that may affect that integration.

[Bonnie Brown, Liberal, Oakville, ON]

Of course, you're giving us Canadian statistics. There are statistics out of Ontario that show a very high dropout rate of 30% in the high schools. They're doing everything they can to turn that around, so I would guess that in the last couple of years it hasn't been too bad, but prior to that it was something like 30%. What do you know about the Ontario statistics?

[François Nault]

You're right, there were conflicting statistics when we released our statistics. What we looked at was the proportion of 20- to 24-year-olds who have high school diplomas. In Ontario I think it's 9% or 10%. The 30% statistics that you are referring to, in my mind, refer to the proportion who completed their diploma within the prescribed period, but there are other second-chance things for a kid who has dropped out of school; there are ways the system can reintegrate the person and try to help him or her complete the diploma.

So there are different statistics floating around, but when we looked at 20- to 24-year-olds, the proportion who had not completed their high school was around 10%, not 30%.

[Bonnie Brown, Liberal, Oakville, ON]

Thank you, Mr. Chair.

[The Chair, Conservative, Dean Allison]

Thank you.

We will move on to the next individual, Mr. Lessard, for seven minutes.

[Yves Lessard, Bloc, Chambly—Borduas, QC]

Thank you, Mr. Chairman.

I would like to thank you for being here this morning to provide us with this information and to shed some light on a number of our concerns about employment and changes in the labour market.

I would like to hear your comments on immigration again. If I understood correctly, there is a gap in education — I don't know how large that gap is — between immigrants and people who come from here.

Can you assess the magnitude of that gap? You seem to say that this is one of the reasons that makes it more difficult for an immigrant to enter the labour market.

[François Nault]

That is a good question. I don't think we have completely finished studying the relationship among immigrants, literacy and employability. The literacy assessment we conducted was in Canada's official languages — that is, English and French. However, there is no doubt that most immigrants have neither English nor French as their mother tongue. They are thus at a disadvantage when we assess their literacy. Practically speaking, we assess their literacy in English or in French, as they prefer, but we do not assess their literacy level in their first language.

We have not yet completed the studies, but some do show the following: even when the language factor is taken into account, it appears that, at an equivalent education level, immigrants have lower literacy scores than Canadians. Immigrants who arrive in Canada are very well educated. I believe that 60 to 65 per cent of recent immigrants have successfully completed post-secondary studies, but it appears that their understanding and ability to properly assimilate written information is weaker than those of Canadians. However, there is still a great deal to be done in analyzing the results of these studies.

[Yves Lessard, Bloc, Chambly—Borduas, QC]

Once the immigrant improves his skills in the new language, be it French or English, to what extent can he or she catch up to the educational assets he or she brings from the country of origin?

[François Nault]

That is a good question. Unfortunately, I cannot provide an answer. We would have to track immigrants as they learn the language to determine whether they find it easier to enter the labour market, or not. I think that we could conduct studies on this. At present, a number of academics are working on the studies, including Craig Riddell, an economist at the University of British Columbia. He will be studying the whole issue of immigrant employability. Naturally, language is a very important factor in the issue of immigrants entering the labour market. However, I do not think we can give you a detailed answer now.

[Yves Lessard, Bloc, Chambly—Borduas, QC]

Let's come back to the labour market situation over the years, and our ability to fill available jobs.

I believe that you said we would reach neutrality — if I can put it that way — by 2020. In other words, in 2020, we will no longer be generating enough citizens of Canadian origin to continue developing or maintaining employment growth. This means we will have to rely on immigration to do so.

If we look at a different time — I am talking about the economy of emerging countries, such as China and India — we can see that over the past 20 years, we had significant immigration from Asia. Given the economic development in Asian countries and market globalization, we see that Asians are now going back to their countries of origin.

Are you able to tell us how many people are going back? Is this a number that will at some point become stable, or is it dropping constantly? This might help us determine what position we will be in by 2020.

[François Nault]

I can give you my opinion, and then Alain can give you more details.

One of the slides shows all possible sources of employees. Immigration is one of the major sources. However, if people who reach retirement age remain on the labour market, or if we can increase employment among aboriginal people or disabled persons, those latter groups will constitute possible sources of workers. Of course, emerging economies, as you call them, are competing for talented and skilled employees. I believe that Canada has a great deal to offer immigrants, but if their countries of origin also have a great deal to offer, we will find ourselves competing on the labour market for the best and most talented employees.

[Alain Bélanger]

There are very few data on immigration by Canadians, be they Canadians born here or outside the country. This is because we are free to leave Canada without having to leave a forwarding address.

However, there are a number of studies conducted as part of investigations that have established that a number of immigrants leave our country, either to go to another country or to return to their countries of origin. Take Hong Kong, for example. It appears that many Chinese who came here in the 1990s returned to Hong Kong a few years later to continue to do business in their country of origin.

With regard to future immigrants, it is quite true that China, with its one-child policy and economic boom, may cease to be as significant an employee source as it has been for the past 15 years. However, many other countries could contribute to Canadian immigration. For example, the countries of the South Asian sub-continent are already a significant source. There are countries in Africa and the Middle East where demographic pressures could remain high in future because the birth rate is still high.

In future, source countries may therefore change. It is also quite true that we compete internationally to recruit immigrants, because all industrialized countries find themselves with the same demographics we do — rapid aging of the population and few young people to replace retiring baby-boomers. Nonetheless, there are still source countries. Canada might have an advantage in that its immigrants have always been highly diversified.

[The Chair, Conservative, Dean Allison]

That's time, Monsieur Lessard. We're going to move on to the next questioner.

Madame Savoie.

[Denise Savoie, NDP, Victoria, BC]

Thank you for your presentation. I have some questions for you on some of the data were not given this morning.

I wonder whether you can give us the breakdown of the workforce into permanent jobs, part-time jobs, temporary jobs and minimum wage jobs.

[Philip Cross]

Earlier, Maryanne presented figures showing that some 13 per cent of our workforce consists of temporary employees. With regard to part-time jobs, the data for May show that out of 16.5 million jobs, 13.6 million were full-time and almost 3 million were part-time jobs.

We have seen a strong reversal of the trend since 2000. All job growth in Canada has been in full-time jobs. In the past five years, we have seen no change in part-time jobs. We have noted that part-time jobs are being turned into full-time jobs, particularly in the west — in Alberta and British Columbia. For example, an employer who has one employee and needs more staff first tries to obtain more hours from his current employee.

[Denise Savoie, NDP, Victoria, BC]

Do you know how many jobs allow people to stay above the poverty line in Canada as a whole?

[Maryanne Webber]

Low-income thresholds are generally established on the basis of total income from a number of sources, not just jobs. If you are interested in information on pay rates, we could provide figures. I do not have them with me at the moment, but I am sure we can provide them.

[Denise Savoie, NDP, Victoria, BC]

Thank you, I would appreciate it.

Do you have data on the number or percentage people who hold down two jobs?

[Maryanne Webber]

We don't have those figures here, but we can provide cumulative job statistics at the same time as we provide low-income statistics.

[Denise Savoie, NDP, Victoria, BC]

My question was on the number of people who have two jobs, not necessarily two low-income jobs.

[François Nault]

We do not have those figures, but about 5 per cent of workers have more than one job. The phenomenon is not very widespread. It is not a high percentage.

[Denise Savoie, NDP, Victoria, BC]

Five per cent is still quite a high number. There are social implications.