Thank you, Mr. Chair and members of the committee, for the opportunity to appear.
Overall, in characterizing the origin of the immigration backlog, I'm going to use some very approximate numbers for illustrative purposes. Canada currently receives roughly 450,000 applications per year, grants roughly 250,000 admissions, and observes approximately 100,000 unsuccessful files. This leaves an excess of 100,000 applications. It's obvious that if such a context endures, a backlog will accumulate.
These numbers also reveal that, relative to its population, Canada has a very large immigration program, in fact one of the largest of any developed country. My belief is that the substantial scale of this program requires much more careful management than would a smaller one. A superficial analysis suggests a few alternatives to preventing a backlog. The government might take action to, first, increase the number of admissions per year; and/or second, reduce the number of applications; and/or third, increase the number of unsuccessful files.
While I recognize that there are several feasible ways to go forward and that the system is complex—with layers of ministerial instructions overall and immigration-class-level annual targets and immigration-class-specific processing priorities—I'm going to put forward a package of three proposals for the skilled worker program. These proposals are regarding, first, the elimination of the backlog; second, the operation of a system that does not accumulate a backlog; and finally, I'm going to offer a quite specific recommendation for managing an aspect of the immigration flow. Given time constraints, these can be thought of as examples of a consistent approach to immigration selection.
First, regarding the current backlog and focusing on the skilled worker program, I believe the backlog's existence is problematic to the operation of Canada's immigration system. Further, the associated problems become more serious as time passes. Therefore, I conclude that eliminating it quickly is beneficial.
At the national level, the existence of the backlog is detrimental because of its impact on Canada's reputation, the operation of the immigration system, and its negative implications for the labour market.
At the individual level--for the new immigrants themselves, that is--I believe there is convincing evidence of an age profile for successful labour market integration. Among immigrants of working age, younger immigrants have better lifetime labour market outcomes. This implies that if an individual sits in the queue for three, four, or five years, there's a simultaneous deterioration in that person's ability to integrate into the Canadian labour market, and it reduces that person's lifetime earnings profile.
On the labour market demand side, it also seems credible that during the current period of slow growth following the recent recession, the need for specific occupations, as provided by the ministerial instructions, is reduced relative to that expected in the cyclical upturn that I believe will arrive in a few years.
Putting this all together, given that Canada has a legal and a moral obligation to process those in the backlog at some point, this is the time in the business cycle when admitting those who do not have an occupational screen is least detrimental. Moreover, the longer people in the backlog remain there, the poorer, on average, their labour market outcomes will be after arrival.
This logic immediately leads to my first proposal: imposing very tight restrictions on acceptance of new applications for a short period and processing the existing backlog expeditiously. I'm not talking about any changes to the immigration targets; I'm simply recommending a new strategy regarding the priority for processing. Assuming we need to address the backlog at some point, it seems sensible to bite the bullet and eliminate it sooner rather than later, since the costs of doing so later are probably larger than doing so at present.
I'll turn to my second proposal, with respect to the ongoing operation without a new backlog being built up. As discussed in the recent evaluation of IRPA, when that legislation was introduced, the thinking behind it was that the flow in the skilled worker program would be managed by adjusting the minimum points required for entry. However, this aspect was never undertaken. Clearly, most agree that it is unfair to change the points threshold after an application has been submitted. But with appropriate warning, the points cutoff could be adjusted on an annual basis for each upcoming year, much like the levels are at present.
This contrasts with the current government's approach in recent ministerial instructions, which impose a quota. Although a quota may be an important backstop, and it certainly limits the number of applications, it is not necessarily the best first-line treatment since it does nothing to improve the labour market outcomes for new immigrants whereas increasing the points threshold would do so.
This is important, since it's well documented that the labour market outcomes of new immigrant cohorts have been declining for the past few decades. We should not address the backlog in isolation from other important immigration policy issues, and this proposal has the potential to address the two simultaneously. It's also a return to what was envisioned for this legislation at its onset. Updating the points system to attune it more closely to, for example, Canada's changing demographic situation also seems sensible. However, that's not directly related to the backlog.
The third and final part of this set of proposals recognizes the value in making ongoing adjustments to aspects of the immigration program to simultaneously avoid a backlog and improve the efficiency of immigrant selection.
I believe the federal government should get out of the business of selecting immigrants in provincially regulated health professions where a sizeable proportion of the workers are funded by provincial governments. Rather, I believe that such workers should be admitted through the provincial nominee programs.
At the top of the list for this group would be physicians and nurses. I'm actually making a very narrow proposal here--