Thank you very much, Mr. Chair.
On behalf of the Board of Trade, thank you for inviting me to appear before this committee.
The Board of Trade, with its 13,500 members, represents the Toronto region's business community. The board is one of the largest chambers of commerce in North America.
In addition to our influential policy work and podium events, we have an active trade services arm, called World Trade Centre Toronto. It offers programs in trade acceleration and market activation to small and medium-sized businesses to grow internationally.
We are currently designing a scale-up program for small and medium-sized enterprises to enable them to grow to their fullest potential domestically, as well as internationally.
High-gross businesses provide a significant contribution to the Canadian economy. Recently, the board launched the Economic Blueprint Institute, which I lead. The EBI is charged with creating a research and evidence base to inform a rolling, five-year forward plan that will galvanize regional economic development and strategic infrastructure investments in Canada's innovation corridor, a geography that extends from Waterloo and Guelph to the greater Toronto and Hamilton area.
Through its work, the EBI will be addressing some of the same workforce questions that this committee is considering. We know that this committee is focused on migration from the labour supply side. A key component of the board's work involves the talent file. We, at the board, have been looking at talent by considering the demand side, and in particular the skills gap, which can be an impediment to maintaining the region's competitiveness.
We often hear about a skills gap and a skills mismatch from virtually all our members and across all sectors. Today I will take the committee through the skills gaps in the trades by highlighting findings from the board's recent labour market study and the latest BuildForce Canada study. Finally, I will pivot to some trends to keep an eye on, which will impact all occupations.
A little over two years ago, the board published a widely cited report, “Building Infrastructure, Building Talent”. It concluded that there would be 147,000 job openings in the construction and trade sectors in the Toronto region over the next 15 years, to 2031, which the report referred to as “a generation of jobs”. These are well-paid jobs.
The most in-demand category is the construction labourer, requiring minimum skills training but whose median wage is nearly double the minimum wage. Other in-demand categories include higher-skilled and more senior occupations such as carpenters, electricians and construction managers.
There are two reasons for the gap. The first is the sheer number of major infrastructure projects in the region, ranging from the refurbishment of the $11-billion Darlington nuclear plant to the construction of the $5.3-billion Eglinton light rail line.
The second reason is the changing demographics, as my colleagues in Quebec have noted, including an aging population. As the population continues to age and construction workers retire, there are fewer young people to replace them, and some of those young people are less keen to join the sector than their parents were a generation ago.
The bottom line is that the continued build-out of major infrastructure projects to support the incredible growth in the Toronto region will leave gaps in all skill levels in the trades, which need to be filled, whether by people from across Canada or from outside Canada. As our president, Jan De Silva, has suggested in the introduction to our study, “To build tomorrow's infrastructure, we must build a pipeline of talent today.”
Those trends are echoed by the recently released reports on the future of construction and maintenance over the next decade by BuildForce Canada, covering all of Canada.
Though the demand outlook varies province to province, with the demand ebbing in some parts of the country, high demand is expected to continue in Ontario and surge in British Columbia. Even with some slowdown, the industry will need to recruit, train and employ an estimated 300,000 new workers in Canada over the next 10 years, particularly given the expected 260,000 retirements.
In terms of the solution to the shortfall, BuildForce Canada looks to traditionally under-represented groups such as women, indigenous Canadians and new Canadians, particularly since immigrants account for only 18% of the country's construction labour force.
I will turn briefly now to another trend that the board, and specifically the Economic Blueprint Institute, will be tracking, one that should be of interest to this committee.
In recent years, researchers have focused on the skills needed to address the dramatic shift that is occurring in the global economy. Globalization and technological innovation are the two main drivers of economic restructuring. Both have an impact on the global supply chains of firms. Many have characterized the shift as one from a manufacturing to a knowledge and service economy, but that is only part of the picture.
Recent research suggests a more nuanced story, one where the impact of digitalization and automation is more widespread and impacting all occupations and all skill levels. The results can be disruptive to a regional economy, as evidenced by the loss of more than 130,000 manufacturing jobs in the Toronto region in the past decade. But it's not all doom and gloom.
Just as there have been losses, there have also been job gains. ln fact, more than 100,000 knowledge-intensive jobs were added to the region in that same decade. However, within the knowledge and service economy, there will be job losses due to automation. This is the reality of today's emerging new economy. A 2017 study by the Brookings Institution in the United States shows that digitalization impacted nearly 90% of the U.S. workforce between 2002 and 2016.
lncreasingly, today's jobs require a substantial digital knowledge. lndeed, a very recent study by the Canadian think tank Brookfield lnstitute found that nearly 200,000 technology jobs were created across Canada between 2006 and 2016, totalling nearly one million workers. The report illustrates how tech workers are pervasive across all industries and all occupations.
The work program of the Economic Blueprint lnstitute is designed to help us better understand the historic, current and future assessments of population, industry and occupation dynamics, and more importantly, the economic drivers of change. Ultimately, we hope the work of the board and EBI will enable the competitiveness and prosperity of the region and of Canada.
On behalf of the Toronto Region Board of Trade, I'd like to thank you for allowing me the opportunity to contribute to the work of this committee.