Thank you.
I appreciate the opportunity to speak before the committee. I am currently the president of a private economic development consulting firm here in New Brunswick, but I was previously the chief economist with the New Brunswick Jobs Board Secretariat. In that role, we spent an awful lot of time thinking about immigration, looking at the data, and trying to understand the best path forward. We had some influence in the Atlantic immigration pilot, and we think a lot of what was done under that program has been successful. We think there is potential for enhancing that even further.
I know that your committee has heard a lot of data, so I'm just going to zoom in on a couple of specific points that I want to raise, which you may or may not have heard yet.
The first is around the shrinking regional labour market. Across the Atlantic Canada labour market, the number of people working or looking for work peaked in 2012 and has been dropping ever since. Between 2012 and 2016, it's down by about 29,000. At the same time, the labour force across the country—the total number of people working or looking for work—has expanded by 600,000.
If you look closely at that 600,000, you'll see that 624,000 landed immigrants have been added to the national workforce, while the workforce number for those born in Canada has shrunk by 27,000, so there are more people who were born in Canada leaving the labour market every year than there are joining the labour market. Across the country, immigration on a net basis accounts for all of the workforce growth across the country.
We need to be thinking about the national context when we look at Atlantic Canada. If you look at the younger population, those between the ages of 25 and 44, you see that the workforce in Atlantic Canada peaked way back in 1990 and has declined by 124,000 people since then.
In the information I sent to the committee in advance, I show a direct correlation between GDP growth over time and workforce growth. In the 1970s and 1980s, there were thousands of people added to the workforce every year, and that provided the talent for entrepreneurs and industries to expand and for GDP to grow. As that workforce has been shrinking, the GDP growth in New Brunswick specifically has been close to zero, and actually, on an average annual basis, it is 0.3% since 2009. Our GDP growth has been flatlining, and that has a lot to do with the labour market.
I would argue that this is probably the biggest public policy challenge facing Atlantic Canada, at least in our lifetime. All of the other initiatives, such as the supercluster initiative and all of the other important initiatives being done by provincial and federal governments, will not be successful unless we can get the labour market growing again.
This is a huge challenge. I estimate that we need roughly 150,000 new people through immigration over the next 15 to 20 years in New Brunswick, and that kind of boost in immigration hasn't been seen since the mid-19th century as a share of the population. We don't have a track record and we don't have the infrastructure in place to support that, so we have to do a lot more federally, provincially, and locally to take this issue seriously and to make sure that not only are we attracting new immigrants aligned with workforce needs but that we're also doing whatever we can to retain them.
The second point I want to raise this morning with you is this issue of what I call “levelling the playing field”. Large urban centres across the country that have a history and a track record on immigration have integrated immigrants well into their workforce over the years. You will see in the documentation I sent you that over 50% of those working in the Toronto administrative services sector are immigrants, and 76% of those working in manufacturing and utilities occupations in Toronto are immigrants. In New Brunswick, that number is 3%.
In the big centres across the country, there's a long track record of hiring and integrating immigrants into the workforce. We don't have that here, but the bigger issue is that these employers are hiring immigrants off the street. This is a big distinction, and it is one that we ran into when we started rolling out the Atlantic immigration pilot.
We went to the national and international firms that are based in places such as Moncton and Saint John and said that we had a deal for them. We said that we would allow them to recruit internationally and bring workers into their facilities in Moncton or Saint John or wherever in the province.
These firms responded that they hire a lot of immigrants in Toronto and Montreal and in their facilities in Calgary and Vancouver, but they don't have to recruit them internationally. They're recruiting them off the street. They said that we were asking them to undertake an additional hurdle in doing their recruiting in eastern Europe or in Asia or South America.
This has been a bit of a challenge. We have to figure out how to make attracting workers to important industries in Atlantic Canada as easy as possible. I understand that we can't flood in tens of thousands of people who don't have jobs and just hope that they attach to the labour market, but we certainly have to do a better job.
This is a national issue. Look at it across the country. Since 2010, the largest urban centres of the country have seen very robust employment growth, while mid-sized and small urban centres have seen very weak employment growth. That's from Sarnia and Thunder Bay right across the country, for the most part, so this is an issue that's facing not just Atlantic Canada but the entire country.
The last point I want to make here in my introductory remarks is what I call “addressing the elephant in the room”. I know there are a lot of folks who think that because the labour market participation rate is relatively low in New Brunswick and across Atlantic Canada, there should be more workers here to work at the jobs that are available. In fact, I think there is some potential for that, but for the most part, if you can't find workers locally—if an employer in good faith tries to recruit locally, pays competitive wages, and can't find workers—we shouldn't be putting them at a disadvantage.
If you look at the labour market participation rate among the population aged 25 to 54, the core labour market, you'll see that it's actually as high in Atlantic Canada as it is across the country, if not higher. Look at urban centre labour market participation rates. Again, they're very similar. I have charts in the documentation I sent to you that show this. The labour market participation rate in urban centres is as high as it is in other urban centres across the country, if not higher.
We do have a higher share of our population that collects employment insurance every year. That is an issue. It's not something that.... Anyway, the bottom line is that when it comes to employment insurance, there are people who use that program because of the seasonal nature of some of our industries, and we shouldn't use that as an excuse not to make sure that we have workers for key industries. Again, part of this is an urban-rural issue. In most urban centres across Atlantic Canada, the EI usage rate is as low as the national average.
I would just urge you, when you look at this issue, to understand it at a strategic level in terms of the importance of immigration in the long term. Look at it from a very specific export and strategic industry perspective, because if we can't find workers for those industries—and agriculture is certainly a very strategic industry for the region—and those industries actually start to decline, their investment in this region.... By the way, they are doing that: a number of firms in Atlantic Canada have moved operations to places like Toronto and Chicago. They could access workers with the same wage rates they were paying down here more cheaply in the larger urban centres. If you go to those facilities, you'll see that almost all the workers are immigrants.
We need to have a little more nuanced understanding of the challenge here, I think, and a nuanced understanding of the opportunity. We need to make sure we put this issue front and centre, because the rest of it, all of the other things we do—the investments we make in post-secondary, superclusters, and roads and infrastructure—won't matter if we don't have the people who are able and willing to work in the industries we have down in this part of the country.
I think I'll leave it at that and take any questions you might have.