Thank you for inviting me here.
I have prepared my presentation according to the document the committee sent to me. I am associated with the economics department at Saint Mary's University in Halifax and also with the Atlantic Research Group on Economics of Immigration, Aging and Diversity.
Fertility decline is a phenomenon that is known to all. It's common to all Canadian regions. It has led to slowing down population growth as well as aging in the population. However, Atlantic Canada has been affected by it more than other regions because of the added phenomenon of out-migration in the youth population.
Between 2007 and 2017, in the Canadian population of those aged 65 and above, their percentage rose from 13% to about 17%. In Atlantic Canada, their percentage rose from about 15% to 20%. So one in every five Atlantic Canadians is over 65. Of course, as you can see, I'm here as an example of that, with my grey hair. The population growth between 2011 and 2016 was 5% in Canada, while in Atlantic Canada it was only 1%.
There are some consequences of population decline and aging. I have mentioned those in the notes I have circulated. First of all, there is the economic-growth effect of population aging. An aging population can result in fewer participants in the labour force, thereby causing shortages of different types of labour demanded by employers in the region. We see examples of that in physician shortages and shortages at all skill levels—bricklayers, truck drivers, and other jobs. Population decline can also result in shrinking markets for goods and services, which in turn creates an adverse impact on incentives for business investment. This also has an impact on economic growth.
Population decline can lead to the creation of policies for restructuring the economy to provide the goods and services demanded by a growing elderly population, that is true. But such restructuring cannot have a long-lasting effect if the death rate continues to either exceed or remain close to the birth rate in the region.
An aging population can also create increased pressure on younger labour force participants to provide social programs for the elderly, such as higher contributions to the Canadian Pension Plan and higher taxes. Population decline also means a corresponding decline of some federal funds determined by population size, such as social and health care transfers.
Rural Atlantic Canada has been affected the most by the regional population decline, and this is of concern because most natural-resource-based industries in the region are located in rural areas. When population declines, the cost of public and private services does not adjust immediately, and there is a point below which base costs cannot go regardless of population size. As a result, the economic feasibility of providing such services becomes questionable. There are losses for hospitals as well as mail and banking services, and the consolidation of schools in rural Atlantic Canada has become increasingly common. Closure of public and private services further accelerates rural population decline as people move closer to metropolitan areas in search of those services.
Finally, regional population decline can also result in the weakening of political representation in the Canadian House of Commons. While provinces are seeing an increase in the number of seats in House of Commons because of an increase in their population size, other provinces seeing population growth decline are not changing the number of their representatives in the House of Commons, which means that the proportional representation in the House of Commons goes down.
I have some stats on Nova Scotia and what it will look like in 2026. In 2026 its population will be down 4.6% from 2004. The population of seniors will be up by 71%. Primary and secondary students will be down 31%, and the university-aged population will be down 30%. Because of this population decline, immigration is seen as one solution. Because of low child-bearing levels, without immigration a population decline is expected. Several economic and non-economic factors play their a role in immigrant retention. Does immigration cause economic growth, or is it the reverse? That's also something that is debatable.
In my presentation I have presented a chart that shows immigrant arrival rates in Canada and the provinces between 2000 and 2016. It shows, for example, that in the year 2000 Canada received more than eight persons per 1,000 residents. In 2016 Canada received about 7.5.
In all provinces, we know that on a per capita basis, there was a decline, except in the province of Alberta, and.... Excuse me, there was an increase, except in some provinces, in the smaller provinces, on a percentage basis, more immigrants came in because of the deliberate attempts in these provinces to attract more immigrants.
While smaller provinces are receiving more immigrants than before, immigrant retention remains an issue in Atlantic Canada. Regional retention is still the lowest in the country, but it has increased since the early 2000s, from about 40% to about 67%. We can attribute this increase to deliberate attempts at community levels and at provincial and municipal government levels. Stats also suggest that recent arrivals are more likely to stay.
Finally, I have a last section showing you how immigrants are doing in Atlantic Canada. I have seen this at all skills levels. It turns out that, overall, in Canada 20.4% of the labour force was comprised of immigrants in 2006. In 2016 this has increased to close to 25%. In Atlantic Canada, the percentage rose from 3.4% to about 5% between 2006 and 2016.
The hourly wage rate for immigrants in Canada, in 2006, was 1% below those Canadian-born; in 2016 it was 5% below those Canadian-born. In Atlantic Canada, immigrants tend to earn more than those Canadian-born. In 2006 they earned 21% more, but this gap shrank in 2016 to 5.6%. Still, they earn more than those Canadian-born.
In the case of recent immigrants, we find that the differential is larger. There are some reasons that can be given for the shrinking of the wage gap between those Canadian-born and immigrants. There was the slowing down of the economy over the period, when many large capital projects such as the Muskrat Falls project and oil projects in Newfoundland and Nova Scotia were nearing completion. The completion of those projects, and also in some governments the cutbacks in fiscal spending, caused some economic slowdown. Past evidence has suggested that during periods of downturn, immigrants are affected more than the Canadian-born.