Citizenship and Immigration Committee on Oct. 9th, 2025

[Lisa Brunner]

Some of the policies that I mentioned in my opening statement—programs like the Atlantic Canada study and stay program and the francophone minority communities student pilot—are examples where we see a policy priority such as regional retention. We have cross-sectoral collaboration. The government selects students who are likely to be interested in staying in Canada long term, but who also meet specific needs and goals of other immigration policies. Then they're provided with settlement supports and connected to potential pathways to allow them to stay in those areas.

I personally think that more settlement services for students could be beneficial, but they don't necessarily have to come from only federal or provincial governments. There are ways to work together in a cross-sectoral, collaborative way because we have a lot of strength in our institutions that have been providing many de facto settlement services for quite some time.

I was an international student adviser at a research-intensive university for 10 years before I did my Ph.D. I know my colleagues work very hard to try to support students adjust to life in Canada.

[The Vice-Chair, Conservative, Michelle Rempel]

Thank you, Ms. Zahid.

We will go to Mr. Brunelle-Duceppe for six minutes.

[Alexis Brunelle-Duceppe, Bloc, Lac-Saint-Jean, QC]

Thank you, Madam Chair.

I thank the witnesses for being with us today.

Mr. Jacques, in your remarks, you said that you estimate the 2025‑27 immigration level plan would reduce GDP by $37 billion.

Can you explain to the committee how you reached that conclusion?

[Caroline Nicol, Advisor-Analyst, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer]

The way that affects the Canadian economy is that, for one thing, fewer hours are worked. Essentially, there are fewer people available for work and fewer hours worked. That automatically affects the country's economic activity.

Another aspect to consider is consumption. Fewer people will consume different products, and that also reduces economic activity.

[Alexis Brunelle-Duceppe, Bloc, Lac-Saint-Jean, QC]

In your report, did you examine the different categories of immigrants? For example, we have temporary immigration and permanent immigration. Temporary immigration would be workers, asylum seekers and students.

Does your report dissect the data for each category?

[Caroline Nicol]

In that particular study, we didn't necessarily differentiate among the categories. We treated it like an overall demographic shock.

We took a somewhat more detailed look at the realities of this segment of the population with respect to age. For example, our population of temporary residents and immigrants is younger than the national average. Our findings therefore reflect labour market behaviours that are a little different for this age group.

[Alexis Brunelle-Duceppe, Bloc, Lac-Saint-Jean, QC]

I gather your report did not include asylum seekers?

[Caroline Nicol]

We took the government's population numbers and compared them to a counterfactual scenario in which the government did not reduce permanent immigration targets or cap it at 5% of total population. Those are the two scenarios we compared.

The 5% target definitely includes asylum seekers. In our economic model—

[Alexis Brunelle-Duceppe, Bloc, Lac-Saint-Jean, QC]

I'm not challenging how you did the report, but I think we can agree that situations vary case by case, such as when someone comes here as an asylum seeker.

You talked about consumption and hours worked and so on. Specifically, when someone looking for help comes here and claims asylum, they clearly need help. Not all of these people get refugee status. However, there is a difference between the economic contribution of an asylum seeker and that of someone who comes to work here in a professional occupation.

[Caroline Nicol]

That's true. The purpose of our study was to calculate the magnitude of the impact that a demographic shock of this size can have on the economy.

Of course, different economic realities in the labour market of various actors can change things. In this case, we sort of experienced the two extremes. For two years, a considerable demographic influx was observed in the Canadian economy. Now things are at more of an equilibrium, so our results are compared to those two previous years.

[Alexis Brunelle-Duceppe, Bloc, Lac-Saint-Jean, QC]

In that same report, you say there has been no impact on housing. You don't make a connection between immigration and housing.

[Caroline Nicol]

Obviously, lower immigration means reduced demand for housing, which means downward pressure on housing prices. We do mention that. We also worked on a report on the housing supply and demand gap. When we compare both versions of our report, we can see that the population decline results in more balanced housing supply and demand.

That isn't in this report, but we did address that issue.

[Alexis Brunelle-Duceppe, Bloc, Lac-Saint-Jean, QC]

Did you examine it only for international students with respect to housing?

Do you have anything about that?

[Caroline Nicol]

We didn't break it down like that.

[Alexis Brunelle-Duceppe, Bloc, Lac-Saint-Jean, QC]

Ms. Brunner, I see that you're an expert on migration politics and study permits.

I've had opportunities to speak with many ambassadors from the African continent, and they've told me that there should be a debate about the fact that many students come from Africa. They go abroad to places like Quebec and Canada to study, but they don't go back to their country of origin afterward. These ambassadors are starting to get worried because they feel that some African countries are losing their best and brightest.

Have you looked at that situation? As an expert, have you heard about it?

[The Vice-Chair, Conservative, Michelle Rempel]

Please give a very brief answer as we are out of time.

[Lisa Brunner]

It's not really my area of expertise, but there is an academic debate about brain drain versus brain circulation. Remittances, for example, can contribute to development.

[The Vice-Chair, Conservative, Michelle Rempel]

Thank you.

We are now moving on to Mr. Davies for five minutes.

[Fred Davies, Conservative, Niagara South, ON]

Thank you, Madam Chair.

I would just like some clarification from Ms. Nicol or Mr. Jacques.

You said the $37-billion impact on the GDP was with temporary foreign workers and with student visas? Was that combined or was that segregated?

[Caroline Nicol]

The shock essentially that we were showing here is everything that was brought forward in the immigration target plan that was projected in November—so permanent residents and all of those temporary residents.

[Fred Davies, Conservative, Niagara South, ON]

Okay, thank you.

When officials were here earlier, I asked what the economic impact was of the sudden change in the student visa program, and they said that they couldn't answer the question, that they didn't have that data. When did you do your study?

[Caroline Nicol]

We published this in January 2025.

[Fred Davies, Conservative, Niagara South, ON]

Officials of the department should have had this information.

Dr. Brunner said something that I had been looking for since the beginning of the study, which is that a domino effect happens without consultation. After we've gone through all of the study, that's sort of the phrase I think is pertinent to where we are.

Has the PBO, for example, costed out the impact of sudden changes or, as our Prime Minister likes to say, this rupture? It is a fundamental rupture in the way the immigration system has been changed suddenly, which has had a huge impact on post-secondary institutions. Has the PBO calculated the cost to the federal government outside of just the immigration program, perhaps to CBSA or to IRCC, on the long-term impact of the changes to this program? Has it been costed out at all?

[Jason Jacques]

We have done work in the past on various immigration policy changes. One of the reports that touches on the point you raised that immediately comes to mind was instigated by the chair of the committee in 2018 with respect to irregular migration coming across the border. Our office would obviously be open to undertaking similar work in the future upon a motion from the committee.

[Fred Davies, Conservative, Niagara South, ON]

Madam Chair, I think that would be a useful bit of information for us to have.

When the government suddenly changed its direction on international students, it put a lot of colleges and post-secondary institutions into a serious financial situation. One of the things that happened in the 2023 economic statement is that the government changed the way post-secondary institutions are treated with respect to bankruptcy, insolvency and responsibility to creditors.

In essence, the federal government removed post-secondary institutions from the ability to seek bankruptcy protection or insolvency protection. What it effectively means is that governments, federal and provincial, are going to be responsible for the financial decline or, in some cases, catastrophic decline of some post-secondary institutions.

I'm aware that it's likely that, in the next couple of years, several post-secondary institutions will become insolvent and will be seeking some type of creditor protection.

Do you have any data, or are you prepared to do any investigation on how this might impact the taxpayer?