Thank you, honourable Chair.
Thank you also for the opportunity to speak among this distinguished panel of guests.
I'm going to confine my comments today to the heart of security: aspects of northern security geostrategy and the ability of the Canadian Armed Forces to respond to them, as these are really the areas of my expertise.
The security dynamics within the Arctic are going through a fairly significant shift. Prior to January of this year, one could argue that the Arctic posed a challenging security environment, given the growing geographical accessibility of the region due to climate change and the steady increase of tensions between regional powers, most notably with Russia.
From 2010 onwards, the Russian Federation in particular invested in its northern capabilities, including the development of integrated Arctic bases and an increasingly powerful icebreaker fleet, and modernizing its nuclear submarine force. Russia's ambition is to provide at least a strong presence in the north to assert its sovereignty, which includes contested claims with Canada.
Relatedly, Russia has also announced a refurbished strategic nuclear force with exotic new weapons, several of which are intended to degrade NORAD capabilities in a potential nuclear conflict. At the same time, diplomatic engagement in the Arctic has been holding steady, at least compared to other areas of our bilateral relations following Russia's invasion in Ukraine.
The war in Ukraine over the past few months has significantly altered the strategic landscape; however, many of the capabilities that Russia utilizes for Arctic security have not been employed in that conflict and thus remain a potential threat. Russia's assets available to operate in the north will likely plateau for the time being, whether due to lack of funding or lack of access to key components in western countries. If the current regime remains in power, Russia is likely to remain hawkish in pressing its sovereignty claims, which would become a flashpoint for future conflict.
There are also much less acute challenges that require response. Disputes over and access through Canadian territory in the north require the government to possess the wherewithal to maintain its sovereignty over the region. These disputes are often with close allies, such as the United States, and they are exceedingly unlikely to result in direct military conflict. While diplomatic tools remain the most likely way to resolve these issues, Canada still must maintain the civil and military capabilities across the entire spectrum as a potential response.
That being said, Canada's capabilities in the north are growing, but significant deficiencies remain. The recent announcements on defence spending specifically targeted towards northern security and modernizing NORAD are welcome, but these address only certain challenges, and it is far from certain that they'll be deployed under the current estimated timelines and costs. For example, the government has recently announced the selection of the F-35 as a replacement for the CF-18; however, there are doubts as to whether it can phase in these aircraft according to the schedule it has announced.
The navy's ongoing acquisitions of the Harry DeWolf class ships will be an excellent addition to Canada's northern presence. These vessels will assist in increasing the country's northern presence and make major strides in providing a wide range of capabilities to coastal communities above the Arctic Circle.
Lastly, Canada faces some key deficiencies. As I discussed in a recent Hill Times article, Canada's fixed-wing search and rescue fleet seems to be in trouble due to the selection of the CC-295. The aircraft has numerous technical and performance deficiencies that make it unlikely to enter service in its intended role, which may require a third competition to fill this capability. Furthermore, Canada has no effective counter to Russian or even allies' nuclear submarines, which can be effectively countered only by other nuclear submarines.
I hope this gives a good overview of the general state of security in the north. I'm happy to elucidate any area during the question period for this meeting.