Thank you, Mr. Chair and members of the committee.
My name is Jeff Turner. I’m the director of mobility at Dunsky Energy and Climate Advisors. I’ll begin by providing a bit of background on my own professional experience, followed by an overview of the type of work that Dunsky does in the EV space and some specific findings from recent projects as they relate to federal EV policies.
My career has been focused on transportation electrification for almost 20 years. I have degrees in mechanical engineering from McGill University, where my research involved designing prototype hybrid and electric vehicles and modelling battery performance in cold climates. I’ve worked for two different hybrid and electric vehicle manufacturers, and I spent four years at BC Hydro’s Powertech Labs, where I focused on technologies that help integrate EVs into the grid and on deploying public charging infrastructure.
In 2017, I joined Dunsky, which is a Canadian firm with over 70 professionals who are focused on analysis and strategy development to support the energy transition. Since then, we’ve conducted projects with governments, utilities and corporations in all 10 provinces, helping them to understand and design policies to overcome barriers to the adoption of EVs, anticipate the pace of adoption and associated demand on the grid, and develop policies for effective deployment of charging infrastructure.
We’ve developed load forecasts for 15 Canadian electric utilities across eight provinces, as well as EV analysis and strategies for 22 Canadian cities, from Halifax to Victoria, Toronto and Calgary, and many in between. That's not to mention our work with provincial governments of all stripes, including B.C., Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec, New Brunswick, P.E.I. and Nova Scotia.
Through these projects, we've gained a deep understanding of how EVs work in these regions, what specific barriers are holding consumers back and how these barriers are evolving over time. This has given us the chance to continually refine our analysis and in particular our EV adoption forecasting model, which we first launched in 2018.
Last year, we had the opportunity to put this model to use in developing forecasts for EV adoption in each province and territory as part of the Powering Up project with Electric Mobility Canada. We forecasted EV adoption under a range of policy scenarios and quantified the associated electrical load growth in each region. This analysis found that EVs can bring significant benefits to Canadians, including almost $2,000 per year in fuel savings per household and reductions of GHG emissions and other emissions that have significant health impacts for Canadians.
The technology progress we’re seeing with EVs is global in nature, so our forecasts predict a significant trend toward EVs across all scenarios, but the right policy mix can bring these benefits to more Canadians sooner.
This February, the federal government announced a new automotive strategy that included tailpipe emissions standards, reduced tariffs on imported EVs and a temporary return of purchase rebates, with a clear plan for a gradual phase-out over the next five years. We've since had the chance to support our clients in updating our forecasts in response to these announcements. Our initial findings suggest that Canada’s EV market is about to see a significant rebound.
We’ve seen a lot of discussion and headlines over the past year fixated on the significant drop in EV sales in 2025. Our modelling saw this as a very predictable outcome of the pause in federal rebates and ensuing uncertainty. With the launch of the EV affordability program, including a gradual reduction in rebate levels over time as EV purchase prices continue to decline, we see a clear path toward the Prime Minister's stated target of 75% market share by 2035.
That said, we know there’s still important work to do to support this transition. The build-out of public charging infrastructure will require ongoing investment for years to come as more EVs hit the road. We need to scale up our efforts to enable more Canadians to access charging at home, including retrofits of multi-unit residential buildings. Updating codes and standards will ensure that new buildings are built with EVs in mind and will avoid the cost of retrofits in the future. Electric utilities need to continue planning for load growth from EVs while ramping up policies and programs that can turn EVs into valuable flexibility assets for the grid through vehicle-grid integration.
The federal government can play an important role in coordinating and supporting these efforts across the country, while providing policy certainty that can help mobilize investments from other levels of government, utilities and the private sector.
I look forward to your questions. Thank you.