I'm going to speak technically this morning on the impact of Bill C-501 on the cost of credit.
My conclusion is that the cost-of-credit impact is small on investment-grade owners and corporations with defined benefit pension plans. By comparison, the impact is small relative to the high damages and costs to retirees and severed workers of maintaining the status quo.
With respect to the junk bonds, there is a higher impact, but these are speculative securities that investors recognize when they invest in them.
First of all, the impact of Bill C-501, based on my research, is that the overall bond market exposed to defined benefit pension plans will have an increase in the cost of credit of 20 basis points. This is consistent and in the middle of the range of the 12 to 29 basis points determined by Phillips, Hager & North, owned by the Royal Bank. In addition, my estimate of 20 basis points is consistent with the 25 basis points that has been the outcome of the research of Towers Watson. I believe both of those organizations will be before you.
This level of 20 to 25 basis points impact on the investment-grade markets is consistent with all of the international research that I have reviewed. The basis of my analysis is that the increase of 20 basis points is a calculable matter, as we have also seen with the other financial organizations, since the credit market is the present value of the impact of cash flows. What Bill C-501 does is to reduce the recovery rates for those corporations that do enter default; as a consequence, the risk premium needs to go up in order to compensate for the reduction in recovery rates. If we were not to take legislative change because there was a negative impact, then no legislative change would be undertaken.
The impact of a 20-basis-point increase in the cost of credit for the investment-grade markets is that all of the bonds that have exposure to defined benefit plans will go down only 1.5 percentage points. You'll hear later in this hearing that Phillips, Hager & North have done a roll-up of the top 60 bond issuers and they have determined that most of the bond issuers do have exposure to the defined benefit pension market. However, they too concur with my work that the degree of increase is approximately in the.... They say 12 to 29 basis points, and they consistently also agree that the impact on the bond market is only down 1.5%.
Based on the 20 basis points, the impact on the bond market as a whole is approximately $3 billion, and that's consistent with what the Royal Bank has indicated the bond market impact is as well. There is also an increase in the cost for corporations. I'm saying that that cost is approximately $3 billion, so the total cost of Bill C-501 on the Canadian economy, on a present-value basis, is approximately $7 billion. Seven billion dollars is a nominal amount in relationship to both the bond market values outstanding and the corporate profitability dynamics.
What I'd like to note also is that with respect to pension funds the deficit today, on average, based on the Royal Bank analysis, is 20%. So what we're saying is that the bond market goes down by 1.5%, but for those companies that go bankrupt, the average deficit is 20%. Depending on what the value of the estate recovery is, that will be the degree to which the pension income must be cut in the case of the liquidations, and upon liquidation of corporations pension funds must be wound up.
As a consequence, I weigh the $7 billion to the economy as a whole against the $50 billion of deficits, of which a small proportion will have to be borne, and with fairly significant negative consequences, by the pensioners of companies that are in liquidation.
I'd like to make the point that there is a difference between liquidation and ongoing concern. When you have this small impact on the cost of capital, even in the fallen angels or junk bond part of the market, I'm saying that's 90 basis points. We are not saying that you must pay upfront the deficit in the case of a restructuring as an ongoing concern. That will still continue to be a matter of negotiation and determination with the liability remaining outstanding. The difference is, as in the case of Nortel, where the management decides to conduct a liquidation, there should be no basis where they've already determined to liquidate that the pension deficit isn't taken as a priority over the creditors at that point in time, the consequence of which is that it will have nominal impact on the rest of the bond market and yet will be the right social policy as well as economic policy for the country.