That is a broad question. Specifically, I mentioned the two variables. Past patterns tell us that, one, when the Islamic Republic of Iran feels especially vulnerable because of geopolitical pressure and/or domestic political pressure and, two, when there's enhanced diaspora mobilization, it speeds up its already high baseline of transnational repression. We saw that, for example, in 2022-23, at the time of the “Woman, Life, Freedom” movement. We saw it after 2020 after the PS752 was shot down.
The prediction that a number of us are making now is that we are basically seeing the confluence of these two variables again, because of geopolitical pressure from the war and because of domestic political pressure from the protests of just a few months ago. Anecdotally, I am already seeing that prediction coming true, even if we don't have enough data points to really make a rigorous assessment at this point.
When I was referring to two variables, that's broadly what I meant.