Thank you.
On behalf of the Canadian Chamber of Commerce and the 170,000 companies we represent from every region of this great country, I'd like to thank you for asking us to present today on this important but difficult and complex matter of the proposed Canada-Korea free trade agreement.
I'd like to start with the importance of understanding the broader context that must shape any Canadian discussion involving free trade agreements, or FTAs.
First, the number of countries keenly interested in negotiating a free trade agreement with Canada is limited. While the growing market access and international trade is an essential component of securing prosperity for Canada, this makes our need for market access to a particular country often greater than theirs.
To quote a recent published response to Minister Emerson's request for input by the Asia-Pacific gateway and corridor initiative:
Canada is not a driver of the growth in global trade, nor is it a particularly critical participant. If Canada is visionary, bold, and creative in their response to the changes in global trade, then opportunities will naturally flow.
My second point is that Canada's reputation has been damaged by years of negotiations that have led to nothing. Other governments are not interested in wasting their time and political capital on us if Canadian protests always lead to no deal being finalized. This is exacerbated by our intransigent position on some Canadian trade barriers.
Thirdly, Canada is missing a key component of its trade arsenal. We need a mechanism that supports a transition for affected companies. Every deal has winners and losers, on both sides. The OECD reports that countries that are growing and adapting well to global trade often have such mechanisms in place.
Free, open, and fair trade agreements bring about growth in GDP and in jobs, creating the economic well-being to finance vital social programs. Half of what we manufacture in Canada is exported and at least one-fifth of all Canadian jobs are directly linked to international trade.
The last point of context I would like to make is that the rest of the world is rapidly expanding their bilateral and regional trade agreements. Every time one of these is signed, someone else gains preferential treatment, giving our competitors an advantage over Canadian companies and Canadian employees.
Now I will speak to the Korean negotiations. The Canadian Chamber of Commerce has members who represent the multitude of views seen within the key business stakeholders. Like you, we are seeking to reconcile both the various opportunities and the legitimate concerns.
You have a copy of our Korea free trade agreement resolution, which was debated and passed at our 2006 annual general meeting. This is a very difficult negotiation. Canada has a pretty open economy for foreign companies, meaning the little we have left to offer in a trade negotiation will have an impact on someone.
Let me restate that every deal has give and take. What we really need from Korea is removal of non-tariff barriers, or NTBs, something that could be more difficult to nail down in a free trade agreement. It has been reported that Korea has a history of putting new NTBs in place when old ones are removed. This only makes the challenge harder, and it has created a feeling of distrust by some.
At the same time, one only has to look at the China WTO accession agreement to see that a good agreement can have a real impact on removing both tariff and non-tariff barriers. I can think of no other alternative mechanism that has shown such progress.
Negotiations with Korea have been lengthy, and we understand they are in their final stages. Some very difficult issues remain unresolved. The most contentious issue is on automotive. We are very concerned that a number of the uncompleted provisions, including the timing for the phasing out of tariffs, and hard commitments to remove NTBs may not be enough to provide balance. However, we are reserving judgment until we know what the final package will be.
We do know that the auto industry, both those who are feeling the negative consequences of a changing market and those who are benefiting from the same changes, will be impacted by any deal. Some may find opportunities in Korea, but this will take some time. How the deal is structured will have a significant impact on whether those changes are manageable.
There is a need for an automotive strategy in Canada. If there is a Korea deal, there will be a need for additional trade transition measures. There's an equal need to get an agreement with Japan. We know that if the WTO round concludes, our tariffs, including those on auto, will be significantly reduced, decreasing what we have to offer in the negotiations and making our ability to get a good deal with Korea even more difficult to achieve.
Lastly, any new deal must provide real market access gains for Canadian companies, including Canadian-made automobiles, Canadian beef, and important sectors such as insurance and flagship products like RIM's BlackBerrys, both of which are from the very important services industry.
There's one factor that must also be considered. The U.S. has finalized their deal with Korea. Although there is much debate, and it's impossible to guarantee any kind of a trade vote in the U.S., I'm being told by some that they believe a deal may be struck to get the KORUS through Congress. Europe is also negotiating a similar deal that could be concluded in the near term.
As the auto industry moves more and more to giving their assembly plants world mandates, the worst-case scenario for Canada is to be on the outside of the tent, a tent that gives a real advantage to Europe and the U.S. At the same time, the auto industry is a critical sector to Canada, and a great deal of care must be taken to address their concerns. It is not an option to sign any deal.
So how do we move forward? Well, it makes sense to be following the negotiations closely, and we applaud this committee's work. We believe it is too early to come to a conclusion on whether or not the Canada-Korea FTA is a good or bad deal. We need to know more. What is the final package, including the treatment of non-tariff barriers and auto? Although on a separate track, will Korea remove the barriers for our safe Canadian beef? What is the dispute mechanism?
What do the MFN, or most favoured nation, clauses get Canada in the context of the Canada-European-Korean deals? Can we leverage the deal to quickly sign an agreement with Japan? Can we sign a deal and time the ratification so that we know if the U.S. and Europe will actually implement their deals? Can we leverage the signing of a deal, and the pressure this will put on U.S. ratification, into getting more concessions from Korea?
What is the Canadian auto strategy? How does it enable Canadian companies, including our friends that have established manufacturing in Canada, to flourish in this rapidly changing industry? How does it encourage Canadian plants to build for both domestic and export markets? What is the trade transition strategy?
Those are a lot of questions. The bottom line is that a good deal would be good for both Canada and Korea. The Koreans are tough negotiators, so it is up to us to continue to push for a deal that provides a positive balance for both Canada and Korea, and to sign it only when this is achieved. If such a deal can be reached—and this is still an if—by thinking through the timing of our ratification, we'll be better able to understand the impact and manage the consequences.
Only when we have the answers to all these questions--which, for many, are still too early to ask--will we be able to determine if it is a good deal.
Thank you, Mr. Chair.