Thank you.
Mr. Chairman and committee members, thank you for the invitation to appear before the committee on this important subject concerning the benefits to Canada of the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement.
The Canadian Council of Chief Executives is a not-for-profit, non-partisan organization composed of the CEOs of 150 leading Canadian enterprises. We are responsible for an active program of public policy research, consultation and defence. The CCCE is a source of well-thought-out and well-founded comments reflecting the business perspective on issues of national importance regarding economic and social structure in Canada.
On behalf of the Canadian Council of Chief Executives, today I plan to answer three questions concerning the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Number one, why should Canada have an ambitious approach to the TPP? Number two, what would a successful outcome to the TPP negotiations look like? Number three, what else should Canadian firms and governments do to prepare for the opportunities provided by Asia?
First, why should Canada have an ambitious approach to the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement?
The TPP is an agreement that, with its current members, would cover an area with about $28 trillion in annual economic output. The region is responsible for about 40% of the world's economic output. An ambitious outcome to the TPP would reduce barriers for Canadian firms to provide products to almost 800 million customers. If the TPP remains open to additional members, as the CCCE believes it must, this market could grow even further.
The answer as to why Canada should engage in the TPP and why Canada needs an Asia strategy is clear. Asia is a powerful engine of global growth. It is essential that Canadian firms and the Canadian government engage fully with the region during this remarkable period of economic and geopolitical transition.
Canadian merchandise exports to the 10 nations in ASEAN, plus China, Hong Kong, India, Japan, Taiwan, and Korea, have doubled over the past decade and now account for about 2.2% of Canadian GDP. However, Canada is underperforming when compared with the scale of the opportunity. Canada's exports to Asia—again, 2.2% of GDP—pale in comparison to Germany's 5.7% and Australia's 10.8%. Clearly, there is room for improvement across a range of sectors, and in particular for Canadian energy exports.
Asian prices for gas are in the range of three to four times the current North American price. Even if a world price closer to European levels were reached for LNG exports, the impact on Canada's GDP could be roughly $28 billion a year. This could add $6 billion in revenue for all levels of government, according to research published in 2013 by Kevin Lynch and Karen Miske.
Closer relationships between people, between firms, and between governments, as part of an Asia strategy, would certainly advance the case for the purchase of Canadian energy products. The TPP is a key element—but just one—of a made-in-Canada Asia strategy.
Question two: what would an ambitious TPP outcome look like?
An ambitious outcome to the TPP means one tariff schedule that eliminates all tariffs. Ambition means simple and straightforward rules of origin and cumulation in the region that let a producer truly produce a duty-free item inside the TPP region and move it around to customers.
Simple rules of origin are vital for Canada, as many firms import inputs, add value to them, create a final product, and then re-export. Simple rules of origin are important, particularly for small businesses that do not have the benefits of legal departments and compliance teams. Complex rules equal cost.
Ambition means services liberalization. Ambition means developing common rules for consumer goods, agrifood, and health and safety issues, the regulatory issues that Jim mentioned in his remarks. Non-tariff barriers also need to be transparent, and then TPP members need to work on eliminating those barriers. Ambition means disciplines on state-owned enterprises so that market-based firms can compete fairly for customers inside the TPP region. Strong common rules for investment and IP are also essential.
Secondly, the TPP should include completely open agricultural market access. The TPP promises access to markets of 800 million customers and a growing middle-class group of consumers. These customers will buy high-quality Canadian agrifood and seafood products. If an ambitious deal is reached that includes access to the protected sectors in Japan, the U.S., and elsewhere, this will require Canada to open its agricultural markets. If our peak agricultural tariffs and quotas are not removed, Canada's access to other nations will in return be diminished. Much depends again on the level of ambition of the final TPP agreement.
Third, the TPP should include strong environmental protections and labour laws.
What the TPP must not be is a spaghetti-like bowl of unique bilateral agreements between each of the partners. It must not be a hub-and-spoke agreement in which one nation receives better access than all of the other partners. For example, faster phase-outs of agricultural duties for one country but not for all partners; that would be bad. Some economists like to refer to this as a suboptimal outcome. I will just use the simple word “bad”.
Another way of looking at this is more liberal rules of origin for products from one nation and not the others. This would be bad. Greater liberalization in the auto sector for one nation that is not extended to all partners; this would be bad. A bad outcome would create a confusing web of rules that businesses may well ignore due to cost. At worst, such outcomes could distort Pacific trading patterns. The TPP, in short, must be ambitious, simple, and straightforward for firms to implement, include agricultural liberalization, and must have strong environmental and labour laws.
Question three: what else should Canada and Canadian firms do to prepare for the opportunities provided by Asia?
Simply put, Canada needs a clearer and more coordinated Asia strategy with short- and long-term targets for flows of trade, investment, and people. An ambitious TPP is a key part of that strategy, but the CCCE would put it to you that the TPP cannot be Canada's only plan for engagement with Asia at the government-to-government level, and it's not. First, this is because the TPP is missing nations key to global value chains that are home to millions of customers, such as China. Second, it is because the TPP may move more slowly than hoped for. As such, Canada must prioritize negotiations with Japan and with India, and the South Korea free trade agreement is to be warmly welcomed. The free trade agreement with Korea must be implemented as quickly as possible so that Canadian firms are no longer at a disadvantage.
Canada should create a strategic partnership with China, similar to Australia's, that could lead to deeper commerce in sectors of mutual interest, or as New Zealand has done, a free trade agreement with China that has resulted in exports growing more than four-fold between those two nations.
Another way of looking at an Asia strategy is to ask what Canada's competitors are doing that possess similar economic and political structures. In addition to the bilateral arrangements I've just described, Australia and New Zealand have what I would call a plan B for the region, the regional comprehensive economic partnership, or RCEP, with the 10 ASEAN nations plus Japan, Korea, India, and China. I would encourage this committee to study the RCEP negotiations, which cover three billion people.
I would encourage this committee to ask "What is Canada's Plan B?" Is our current suite of negotiations sufficient or must Canada add a plan for deeper engagement with countries such as China? For their part, firms of all sizes require strategies for specific Asian markets: countries, regions, and even cities.
In 2011, the Canadian Council of Chief Executives launched a multi-year initiative intended to raise awareness across Canada of Asia's growing economic power and influence, and to identify key policy solutions that would enhance our country's ability to succeed in a transforming global economy. The results of that work are available on our website for the public, for policy researchers, and for firms. We continue this research. We're partnering with Deanna Horton at the Munk School of Global Affairs and her master's students to create a Can-Asia map creating a footprint of the thousands of Canadian firms that are present in the Asia region. That work has begun and some of it will be made public shortly.
I would also underscore that examining Canada's merchandise export trade is insufficient to understand Canadian commercial activity. This committee may be well advised to ask Statistics Canada for an update on how they're measuring trade and services, foreign affiliate sales, joint ventures, and other new forms of commercial relationships between Canadian firms and Asian firms, and how Canadian firms are now selling into those Asian markets.
To conclude, open markets, strong regulation, a skilled and healthy workforce, and great products make Canada a global destination of choice for investment and production. Canada is an open economy with tariffs that are already very low. Trade agreements therefore tend to bring down other countries' barriers disproportionately as a result.
In addition to our robust agreements with the U.S., Mexico, and the EU through CETA, updating our relationship with the U.S. and Mexico must remain a priority. But I would offer that in addition to these two traditional theatres of engagement—North America and Europe—Canada must have a third rail, a third strategy for deeper engagement with Asia.
An ambitious outcome to the TPP negotiations is just one element. But to fail to create a strategy for Asia would be a monumental error. To be clear, the TPP is not the outcome. It is the process by which governments can play their part to encourage investment in Canada, to sell more Canadian products to Asian consumers, and in so doing create jobs and grow the Canadian economy.
Thank you.