Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
Thank you to the committee for inviting the Canada China Business Council to be here today.
CCBC is an independent non-profit, non-partisan membership association. We were organized 35 years ago to help our members better succeed in trade and investment between Canada and China. We have approximately 225 corporate members and about 2,000 active individuals within those members. Of those organizations, 90% are Canadian. They tend to be companies primarily, but we also have a good number of educational institutions and also some government agencies within our membership. Our membership is about three-quarters SMEs; 75% of our members have less than $50 million in annual revenues. We have offices in Toronto, where our headquarters are, and in Montreal, Calgary, Vancouver, Beijing, and Shanghai. Through that network of offices we cover both countries as a bilateral organization.
We do a number of things for our members, including helping them one on one with their China business, bringing them together to educate them and help them build their networks through events in both countries, as well as helping to advocate for an easier environment in which to do business. In that regard, we are always looking at ways in which we could break down barriers to trade and investment in both directions. Often it takes an agreement of some sort to make big progress in that. We saw big gains from the WTO, for example, when China acceded to the WTO in 2001, with some further sectors joining in 2005, but there has been little opportunity to make big progress in that lately.
As a council, we're in favour of any policies that increase market access and build rules-based systems to help our companies compete in a country that is challenging but offers huge growth opportunities. Two years ago the conclusion of the Foreign Investment Promotion and Protection Agreement was very good news to us, particularly because we see that the assistance the agreement could give to Canadian companies that are invested in and doing business in China could be significant. It may also offer benefits to Chinese companies in Canada, but as a country with a better system of rules overall, the impact is bigger for Canadian companies who are currently operating in China without the benefit of such an agreement.
On the Trans-Pacific Partnership, I'm not an expert on this, but I do eat, sleep, and breathe China and the China opportunity every day. Personally I've been involved in China my entire career, more than 25 years. I speak the language. I've lived in China on a number of different occasions. As an organization, we think about China 24-7.
The opportunity that China brings is something that has been very obviously covered in the press. I'm sure the committee is aware of it. China is Canada's number two trading partner after the U.S. We are China's 13th-largest trading partner, so we're a bit farther down the list. China will be the largest economy in the world in five years. Even China's slowing growth of 7.7% last year makes it one of the best opportunities around.
Canada's trade with China in 2012 was about $70 billion. If you look at all of the Asian countries, that is half of our total trade with Asia. Only Japan comes anywhere close, at $25 billion versus $70 billion, and the next one down, South Korea, is $10 billion—seven times smaller than our current trade with China.
This number is growing nicely. We were at $11 billion in 2001 and $65 billion in 2011. But to be honest, it's without trying very hard. Similar to what you heard from Ailish Campbell, there's a lot of opportunity for Canadian companies to do even more. The growth is nice at 7% overall in 2012. Our exports in 2012 grew by 13%, which is even better, but we still feel like we're far behind. To use a transportation analogy, it feels like we are on an express bus, so we're not doing too badly, but China is moving at the speed of a fast train. It often feels like a challenge to keep up, particularly because other countries are engaging China more aggressively and in a more coordinated fashion.
Unlike in other markets, government actions in China help to pave the way for businesses of all sizes. What happens from our federal government in its relationships with China's central government filters down even to the smallest companies. They will hear from their counterparts in China, “Well, you know, your government isn't getting along with our government,” or “Things are slow, so I can't do as much with you.” It's an important consideration. We always keep in mind that although businesses have to do well on their own merit, the government plays a very important role. The signalling from the top is important.
Overall, we look at the trade numbers and why that is good for Canada. There was a report done a couple of years ago by the Institute for Competitiveness & Prosperity, a think tank in Toronto. They talk about the fact that in addition to the standard economic benefits of more trade, trade is an important stimulant to innovation and our economic success. Innovation is driven by a combination of support and pressure, and international trade contributes to both, so these two terms—“support” and “pressure”—are important.
Support refers to the conditions that are a foundation of assistance to all firms and individuals as they compete and develop. This leads to larger market opportunities and access to better supplies of materials, people, and capital, which are critical supporting conditions for innovation. That support, through agreements like the TPP, can end up being delivered by the trade commissioner service and by organizations like ours and variety of resources that companies have in their tool box.
Pressure is even more important, in my opinion. It comes both from aggressive and capable competitors who are a threat to complacency and from sophisticated customers who demand innovative goods and services at low prices. Better market access to countries in Asia through the TPP gives you access to much more demanding customers, and it helps our companies be better. International trade exposes our businesses and managers to these beneficial pressures that create the imperative for innovation.
In any country, there are competing interests that can get in the way of trade liberalization. I look, for example, at our dairy supply management policy, an interesting anecdotal example being Saputo, the Quebec dairy company that is in the process of buying Australia's Warrnambool for about $520 million. In the press around that acquisition, a key statement was made, which was that they are buying it for the China market opportunity that an Australian operation brings. They're not addressing that China opportunity directly from Canada. That could be an indication of the fact that value chains are really global, but there are also, I believe, some trade barriers in that.
Now, I'm not the right person to comment on the pros and cons of supply management concessions in an agreement like the TPP, but the fight over such a controversial topic is analogous to one that happened in China prior to its WTO accession in 2001. The WTO deal pitted China's internationalists against those who preferred not to open up to the world. The internationalists won, and China benefited greatly.
The TPP, as you know, doesn't include China currently among its 12 countries, but our council is still in favour of the TPP, particularly because there is an opportunity for China to be brought in along the line. A successful TPP may very well convince China to join. The Development Research Center, which is a think tank under China's State Council, has recently invited a number of scholars to Beijing to brief them on the agreement. I would add that the DRC, in conjunction with the World Bank, has published some very good work that shows China very clearly understands the changes that need to be made to China's structure to keep growing at the rate they are. They know there are a lot of reforms that need to be done, so I'm heartened to see the DRC inviting scholars in to talk about the TPP.
Some recent statements show that they're thinking about joining as they learn about what the TPP includes. China may be able to use the TPP to deal with some of their own internal structural issues. Just like the WTO, where it was actually very convenient to essentially blame it on the foreigners—“they made us join” and “they made us make these changes to our country's structure”—that's often a convenient excuse for getting this hard work done. In this regard, China tends to recognize the value of multilateralism, especially when it can help it restructure its economy.
I would also point out that global value chains are predominant, as I alluded to with the Saputo example. The more countries with which Canada has such cooperation agreements, the easier it will be to build productive and efficient global value chains, because much less happens bilaterally than multilaterally as we move products around the world.
There is also a significant benefit to Canada, as was written by the Peterson Institute for International Economics in a report in 2012. Among the key points this report made were that the TPP offers a pathway to free trade in the Asia-Pacific with significant potential gains economically, and in addition to some very strong economic numbers listed even for Canada, they talk about some intangible effects of “renewed momentum toward global economic integration”.
As I mentioned at the beginning, there hasn't been much news in terms of agreement that makes it easier for companies. You can see from the success—or lack of—with the Doha Round of the WTO that a large worldwide agreement is likely not in the cards. So agreements like this, which help us take steps toward that, are useful. One of the points they also made was that it can lead to better rules for Asia-Pacific trade and perhaps global trade. As I mentioned, those rules are very helpful to us.
Finally, people might ask why we don't just negotiate a free trade agreement with China. Wouldn't that be what the council would want? While we are definitely in favour of such an agreement, realistically whether or not it can happen is a question.
The bilateral complementarities that we have between our economies will not remain static. A good report was done two years ago between DFAIT and China's Ministry of Commerce about economic complementarities in a variety of sectors, but those opportunities come from China's five-year plan and some of its stated goals in how it wants to upgrade its industries. Those are open windows, as I call them, that will close as China tries to develop those capabilities. In the time it may take to negotiate a comprehensive agreement, the open windows may completely change. Other countries that have been negotiating bilateral FTAs with China have seen that it is not a quick process.
So we feel it may be more promising to negotiate a series of confidence-building agreements that would deliver liberalizing momentum as they enter into force and help create a framework for the future. But at the same time, the TPP can help to move things along well.
Finally, we need a strategy versus ad hoc liberalization of trade. Often these one-off bilateral agreements appear to be much more ad hoc. So the TPP is a very efficient way of getting many Asian countries involved at the same time, with a fallback being individual negotiations where Canada is often just too small to get those done quickly.
So we see TPP as a must-do, but it's not in lieu of having a strategy for China. The TPP would be part of an Asia strategy and Canada's China strategy should be an integral part of that Asia strategy. They can be mutually reinforcing.
I would recommend to this committee a commission perhaps in parallel to your TPP work to study the China trade relationship, and the council would be very happy to provide further input on that topic.
Thank you.