You're safe.
Evidence of meeting #37 for International Trade in the 42nd Parliament, 1st Session. (The original version is on Parliament’s site, as are the minutes.) The winning word was question.
A recording is available from Parliament.
Evidence of meeting #37 for International Trade in the 42nd Parliament, 1st Session. (The original version is on Parliament’s site, as are the minutes.) The winning word was question.
A recording is available from Parliament.
11:30 a.m.
A voice
You're safe.
11:30 a.m.
Conservative
11:30 a.m.
Assistant Deputy Minister, Trade Agreements and Negotiations, Department of Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development
There are all sorts of things that happen when a trade agreement comes into force, including synergies and business activity that we cannot predict and that they cannot take into account in this kind of a model. That's just a limitation of the modelling that we have.
I'll now turn to André.
11:30 a.m.
André Downs Director General and Chief Economist, Department of Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development
There's a limit to what the model can do. What we tried to do is to assess the impact of the most significant changes. When we're talking about trade policy and we're in an environment where tariffs are low, you cannot expect major swings and trade flows, and economic activity—
11:30 a.m.
Conservative
11:30 a.m.
Director General and Chief Economist, Department of Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development
—so we're talking about marginal changes to the overall trade environment. In these circumstances rarely do trade policy initiatives generate big bangs.
11:30 a.m.
Director General and Chief Economist, Department of Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development
We're always talking about incremental changes.
11:30 a.m.
Conservative
Gerry Ritz Conservative Battlefords—Lloydminster, SK
No, it's a slow, managed gain, I agree with that.
It would then follow that the Tufts University studies, which talk about doom and gloom, are based on those same clearly defined models. They're extrapolating numbers. They're best guesses.
11:30 a.m.
Director General and Chief Economist, Department of Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development
The Tufts University model is different. It starts with the projections on trade and GDP that were generated by other simulations, such as the Peterson Institute, or the C.D. Howe Institute, or ours. Then it incorporates these projections into a model that focuses on other dimensions, such as the labour market, income inequality, etc. The model is structured in such a way that whatever the shock, it's going to have a negative impact on income equality. It depends—
11:30 a.m.
A voice
That's right.
11:30 a.m.
Conservative
Gerry Ritz Conservative Battlefords—Lloydminster, SK
Yes, it's one side. Okay, thank you.
The other point I'd like to make, which was concerning for a lot of the unionized folks out there, is that somehow there would be a flood of non-certified, non-qualified people coming in and taking over jobs. As you explain on page 5 of your presentation, Ms. Hillman, it's all about qualifications and requirements at every level of government. If I want a crane operator, then I have to have a certified crane operator. I can't just bring in Joe Blow from East Overshoe and say, “Here, run my crane”. I wouldn't do that anyway because of the liability. To underscore that this is already in that agreement, and that they have to come in under those qualifications, is good. Thank you for that.
11:30 a.m.
Conservative
11:30 a.m.
Liberal
The Chair Liberal Mark Eyking
Okay. Thank you, Mr. Ritz.
We're going to move over to the Liberals. Mr. Dhaliwal, you have the floor.
11:30 a.m.
Liberal
Sukh Dhaliwal Liberal Surrey—Newton, BC
Thank you. Welcome, panel members.
My question is going to be for Assistant Deputy Minister Hillman. It's going to be focused only on workers.
In your view, would this lead to a significant increase in temporary foreign workers if we ratify the TPP?
11:30 a.m.
Assistant Deputy Minister, Trade Agreements and Negotiations, Department of Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development
I think that we can look to what it covers and what it doesn't cover. As I said in my presentation, there are some very specific considerations on what types of workers it covers, what kinds of constraints are in place, and the period and the function for which they can come to Canada.
To project into the future of the TPP is challenging, but what I can tell you is that we do have some experience from past FTAs. For example, our temporary entry obligations under the TPP are on par with some of our recent trade agreements. Those recent trade agreements have not lead to significant influxes of foreign workers.
For example, in 2015, Canada's commitments for professionals and technicians with Peru and Colombia resulted in only a total of 14 and 45 entrants, respectively. Our commitments with Korea—we have an FTA with Korea—resulted in 13 professionals entering Canada in 2015.
11:35 a.m.
Liberal
Sukh Dhaliwal Liberal Surrey—Newton, BC
My concern is even bigger now when I go through your presentation on page 5, where you say you need proper qualifications and professional designations to enter Canada to work.
11:35 a.m.
Assistant Deputy Minister, Trade Agreements and Negotiations, Department of Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development
Yes.
11:35 a.m.
Liberal
Sukh Dhaliwal Liberal Surrey—Newton, BC
It would not affect our professional architects, engineers, or technicians. It would affect the new students coming out of the universities who are looking for jobs, because if you need a professional engineer, they would not have that designation to work here as a professional engineer. The assistants would be able to move here. How would you be able to tell those people that they would not be affected by this?
11:35 a.m.
Assistant Deputy Minister, Trade Agreements and Negotiations, Department of Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development
Just to make sure I understand your question. You're saying that young Canadian professionals....
11:35 a.m.
Liberal
Sukh Dhaliwal Liberal Surrey—Newton, BC
Yes, they would have difficulty. The reason is that the professionals who already have work experience would have achieved their professional designations. They would not be affected because the people who are coming from overseas would not be able to do that type of work. The only workers who would be able to do the work do not have those qualifications. That is where my concern is. Those young students who are coming out of the universities would be most affected by this TPP.
11:35 a.m.
Assistant Deputy Minister, Trade Agreements and Negotiations, Department of Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development
There are two answers to your question. One is that for those categories of professionals, there are prevailing wage requirements. In other words those professionals coming from abroad into Canada would have to be paid the prevailing wage in Canada, in that region, for a professional at that level of expertise and experience.
Therefore, if what you're suggesting is that maybe the company would be more inclined to hire this worker from abroad than our young people, then they would be hiring them at a higher wage. They would have to hire them at the same wage they would pay for the more experienced Canadian professional, given the prevailing wage requirements.
They would also have to have a pre-arranged contract. They don't come in and look for a job. There would have to be an investor or a contract here that requires that person to come in on a temporary basis to facilitate the particular investment or particular service that is being provided by the TPP country.
11:35 a.m.
Liberal
Sukh Dhaliwal Liberal Surrey—Newton, BC
What you're telling me, and Canadians, is that we would be able to strike a balance between the temporary foreign workers and sustaining the industries that need the workforce. Is that true?