Thank you, Madam Chair and committee members, for the invitation to take part in this meeting on trade opportunities in the Indo-Pacific.
Canada is an Indo-Pacific nation by virtue of its geography, history and strong people-to-people ties as well as business and trade ties. We must recognize that the Indo-Pacific region is critical to Canada's future economic growth, its economic security and its role as an advanced nation that is home to a range of leading international firms.
Given how important trade is, we are pleased that the committee has undertaken this study on the Indo-Pacific region.
I will first focus on growth. Most of the world's economic growth over the next several decades is projected to take place within the Indo-Pacific. The McKinsey Global Institute estimates that, by 2040, Asia will account for 50% of the global economy and become home to most of the world's middle-class consumers. Canada and Canadian companies cannot risk missing out on this enormous growth opportunity.
On the issue of diversification, economic resiliency is a growing concern around the world. In some countries, this has given rise to calls for protectionism and nearshoring or onshoring. For a trading nation such as Canada, resiliency means something else entirely. Other than in a few critical areas, self-reliance is not a viable strategy for Canada. Our country must become more, not less, globally engaged with like-minded and fast-growing partners, including in the Indo-Pacific.
On the issue of relevance, Canadian companies have a successful track record beyond our borders, especially in the United States. The United States will undoubtedly remain an attractive place to invest, but like Canada, its share of the global economy could shrink over the coming decades. It's worth questioning, therefore, whether continued success in America will be sufficient to be considered a global leader in the 21st century. Canada and Canadian companies must work harder to establish a meaningful presence where growth is occurring, principally in the Indo-Pacific.
One way Canada can advance its regional interests is to release an Indo-Pacific strategy, and this should include a significant focus on trade and economic ties. Within that strategy, we believe that trade negotiations can play an important role in building a bridge between Canadian and Indo-Pacific markets.
First, on the CPTPP, this has been a beneficial agreement for Canadian exporters, and we believe it can deliver even more opportunities through its expansion. We support ongoing accession talks to bring the U.K. into the framework and support the additional accession for any economy that can meet its high standards. Considering the potential value of new applicants, we see South Korea as a particularly important addition. We expect their application is imminent.
On ASEAN, in our 2017 report “The ASEAN Advantage”, which we developed in partnership with the Canada-ASEAN Business Council and the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, modelling showed that a deal would result in significant trade growth and position Canadian firms to compete in this lucrative market of now nearly 700 million people. We welcome progress toward this goal.
As far as a Canada-Indonesia CEPA is concerned, Indonesia will be one of the largest economies and most populous countries within a few decades. For now, however, it's an underdeveloped relationship. Just last week we had the opportunity to meet with representatives of the Indonesian business community, KADIN. I can say that both business communities were optimistic about the opportunities and believe a bilateral deal can enhance our growing relationship.
Now I'll discuss India, the CEPA and early progress trade agreement. With growth exceeding 8% this year, India is projected to be one of the fastest-growing economies in the world. While it's been a challenge to advance trade talks in the past, India has recently shown openness toward a different approach in pursuing trade deals with advanced economies, including Australia, the U.K. and the EU. To ensure Canada has an advantage in the market, we welcomed the agreement to relaunch CEPA talks and to consider an early progress trade agreement to unlock opportunities in the near term.
Looking to other frameworks, Canada should closely monitor and assess if its participation in other frameworks could be beneficial, including the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership.
Canada should also closely follow the forthcoming U.S. Indo-Pacific economic framework. We understand that this initial framework will not include Canada or Mexico, both of which are Pacific nations and were part of the original TPP with the United States as well as now members of the USMCA. There could be a risk for Canada to remain on the sidelines of this potentially important regional economic framework that will include our key partners in the region, including many CPTPP countries and our most important trade partner, the United States.
To conclude, the Business Council of Canada supports a comprehensive economic strategy with an ambitious trade agenda. It's critical that our country move quickly and in partnership with industry and other stakeholders to ensure that we don't miss out on opportunities.
Thank you. I look forward to answering your questions.