No, I won't. I'll keep it really short.
There are two broad research trends. There's the research you've been introduced to by many criminologists, who have said it doesn't work--incarceration doesn't work, minimum mandatories don't work. I'm not denying the existence of that research stream. Of course it exists. And there's a second research stream, the law and economics.
Dealing with your specific question, this has been debated, believe me, in the law and economics research tradition in which there's a very large body of evidence. They're looking at this, and they're trying to using very advanced statistical techniques, because the law and economics people are people with advanced economics degrees. They're trying to deal with that question.
I'm answering your question. Their conclusion is that notwithstanding what you're suggesting, when you tease out and put weights on, there is a causality between incapacitation or incarceration—