Yes, the risk is high, and the best factor to predict that a person will not reoffend is age. My colleagues will probably agree with that, at least one of them will. For a number, or a category of offenders—when we refer to pedophiles we are talking of only 20% of the abuser population—we hardly have any other choice but to wait for the passage of time before we can feel comfortable with their release.
On February 14th, 2011. See this statement in context.