Thank you.
My name is Marc André Boivin. I work for a research group that's called the Réseau francophone de recherche sur les opérations de paix, which is at the University of Montreal.
First, I'd like to do my presentation in two parts, first basically un état de la situation, and then I'll close with some general recommendations as far as the Canadian policy in Afghanistan is concerned.
Let me start with l'état de la situation.
Since the fall of the Taliban regime at the end of 2001, the international community has begun a long-term process to stabilize and rebuild Afghanistan. Since, much of the groundwork has been laid. A true race to govern is on between this political project endorsed by the international community and the Afghan forces that presided over the dismantling of the country for more than two decades. Unfortunately, recent developments lead us to believe that the international community is currently losing this race to govern.
Let's talk about the difficulties. Canada is one of the new Afghan government's first and most reliable partners, and Afghanistan has an enviable role in Canada's foreign policy. It is important today to clearly understand the difficulties involved in the stabilization and rebuilding process that is underway and to put into context the potential impact of Canada's action in this area.
The main difficulty is the resurgence of extremist elements, the return in strength of the Taliban and other elements who are opposed to recognizing the authority of the government in Kabul. The spectacular rise in violence, namely in southern sector where the Canadian soldiers were redeployed, is also a symptom of the central government's loss of control over entire regions. A report recently published by the London Senlis Council confirms, following a study in the field in the Helmand, Kandahar, and Nangarhar regions, that government authority does not extend beyond the main centres where foreign troops are deployed. The actual power of the Kabul authorities in the regions has always been well below its ambitions. However, the problem is that developments and these ambitions are moving in opposite direction and that the initiative is now controlled by insurgents in entire regions, mainly in the south and the east.
The second difficulty is the marked increase in the production and sale of narcotics. The Taliban's return in strength is explained in part by considerable illegal revenue from a spectacular increase in the production and sale of narcotics. This increase affects, among others, the region of Helmand and Kandahar, where British and Canadian contingents are deployed, and where, not coincidentally, the insurgents are among the best organized. A natural alliance has been formed among producers, traffickers and insurgents, all of whom are strongly opposed to recognizing a state of law. This dynamic became significantly worse because of the policy to eradicate poppy fields favoured namely by the American government. That alienated local people by depriving them of their livelihood and provided the Taliban with an opportunity to score political points. Moreover, the eradications tended to hit the poorest peasants especially hard, thus strengthening the sense of injustice and alienation vis-à-vis authorities in Kabul. Any kind of solution will require a long-term strategy to progressively restore a lawful economy through a combination of targeted measures for development, incentives, and repression.
The third difficult stems from the Afghan government's fragile foundation. This measured approach is an integral part of the Afghanistan Compact, itself inspired by an Afghan national development strategy submitted by the Karzai government. Its main aim is to develop the capacity of the Afghan government so that it will one day be autonomous and responsible. To date, the bulk of its budget is provided by international donations, which is not only untenable in the long term, but also contrary to exercising its sovereignty and damaging from a domestic point of view. International efforts have come up short in terms of training Afghan police officers, and have done even worse in establishing a legal system. Moreover, countries continue to prefer direct investments instead of assistance through the Afghan government, a more effective short-term approach but which hinders the development of the Afghan government's administrative capacity in the long term. According to some Afghan officials, the world is providing Afghanistan with intensive care, instead of providing it with a remedy.
The fourth difficulty is the lack of consistency in international efforts. Canada's action is part of international efforts that have proven to be inconsistent and disparate. Three missions are currently active in Afghanistan: a UN mission responsible for development and coordinating development assistance, a NATO mission with a peacekeeping mandate, and a US-led counter-terrorism operation.
Discussions to merge the two military missions, Enduring Freedom and ISAF, have encountered squabbling between the Americans and Europeans, who do not agree on including more offensive aspects as part as a unified operation. Yet most countries are participating in both missions. It must also be added that NATO had enormous difficulty convincing its members to agree to substantial deployments. The countries have moreover imposed the various restrictions that strictly limit the action of forces on the ground.
The fifth difficulty stems from action with too much of a military focus. Security has been placed at the centre of international involvement in Afghanistan. That echoed the dramatic events that precipitated the instigation. But establishing sustainable peace for Afghanistan will require economic development and political stability. Canada is no exception to that trend, with the presence on the ground but it's essentially military in nature. I reiterate that there is currently a race on to govern Afghanistan. A solution that is strictly military is counter-productive in the longer term, as witness the recent deterioration in the security environment after five years of efforts.
The sixth difficulty is the conflict's regional dimension. Afghanistan is the epicentre of a highly unstable region. Its two main economic partners, Iran and Pakistan, are also its two main potential sources of political and military problems. So Afghanistan could suffer a backlash from the current confrontation between Iran and the United States. Evermore seriously, Pakistan is closely tied to decades of several war that ravaged the country. The tribal regions, namely at the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan, are used as refuges for the Taliban and other extremist elements, and have played a significant role in their recent resurgence. A rise in violence has had a direct negative impact on relations between Islamabad and Kabul. The complexity of the situation is increased by the link to the rivalry between Pakistan and India. Moreover, Pakistan's military dictatorship is based in part on radical Islamic doctrine, which limits its ability to take action.
Now I'll go to the recommendations.
Canada has played an active role in Afghanistan from the start, and it should see its commitment through. However, we should not underestimate the significant obstacles awaiting the completion of our mission there. The situation, as noted, significantly deteriorated in recent months, putting Afghanistan's recovery further in the future and raising doubts on the current stabilization and reconstruction process.
The first recommendation is to stay the course, but with an open debate.
Canada's involvement follows a humanitarian imperative and our focus on failed states. It is also a necessary gesture towards our American partner and is consistent with our latest international policy statement. But Canadian support has been dwindling, and the Canadian government cannot shy away from explaining its foreign policy choices.
In the current political situation, Canada's involvement in Afghanistan cannot remain the sole prerogative of the Prime Minister's Office, and attempts at doing so are eminently counterproductive. All four parties stated their support for the mission during last April's debate on the issue. How could the renewal of the mission vote go so awry only three weeks later?
As in other democracies, notably in Europe, Canada should discuss and vote in Parliament on the renewal of major international deployments well in advance and on a regular basis. The pitfall is the possibility of inconsistency, but the Prime Minister's Office is not immune to such a risk. Furthermore, this would shed more light on Canada's foreign policy and bring the debates closer to the Canadian citizens.
The second recommendation is that emphasis should be put on the political and development aspects of the mission.
Part of the Taliban resurgence in the south and east can be blamed on the strictly military character of Operation Enduring Freedom. It took two years for the American command to recognize that in order to be successful, they needed to engage in nation building. Even the subsequent provincial reconstruction teams were dominated by military personnel and considerations.
President Karzai lately has been critical of some of the blunt methods used by the Americans and coalition partners, namely, house searches and aerial bombardments. Canada has an extensive and distinguished record in stabilizing post-conflict societies, yet our involvement in Afghanistan has also been mainly through National Defence.
The 3D approach, advocated in the international policy statement, is sensible. The time has now come to put more emphasis on diplomacy and development if we are to help the Afghans sustain peace by themselves in the long run. The Afghanistan Compact offers a unique opportunity in this sense, as well as the programs set up by the UNDP and the UN in general.
The extension of ISAF to the south, of which the Canadian military is part, will probably bring a more balanced approach to the fore, in which security is viewed in a larger sense than the dubious war on terror and consequent hunt for terrorists allow. This is not to say that the military should not engage in offensive actions; rather, they should avoid being strictly focused on them, this being especially true in the alarming situation that now prevails in the Kandahar region.
On the third set of recommendations, Canada's action is part of an international effort. Related to this point is the fact that Canada should try to exert a positive influence on its partners in Afghanistan. To the United States, Canada should point out that the job in Afghanistan is not done and that Iraq should not make it deviate from its responsibilities.
Commitment issues are also a concern with our European partners who, when they commit troops, tend to severely restrict their use. Furthermore, Canada is in an ideal position to mediate between the Europeans and the Americans and foster a deal that would unite the two military missions in Afghanistan. The United States should probably be aware by now of the benefits of a more legitimate multilateral NATO tag to its actions, however curtailed they may be.
Finally, on awareness of regional dimensions, geography has put Afghanistan in the middle of powerful regional players with vested interests in the country. Peace will not be sustainable without their consent and support. The most important actor in this respect is no doubt Pakistan. Canada should keep a close watch on the Pakistani government's actions and inactions. The issues of democratization and decentralization, Kashmir, and radical Islamic militancy will all directly affect Afghanistan.
If we want our efforts to bear fruit, we need to be mindful of these complex realities and make good use of our diplomatic assets.
To conclude, Canada cannot solve all of Afghanistan's problems by itself. But by deploying a significant contingent, sustaining a high level of development assistance, and providing political support, it has earned a place at the table. It should put that to good use and push for a more encompassing, sustained long-term approach to establishing peace in Afghanistan. It's our only valid exit strategy.